With just seven days left until parliamentary elections in Armenia, news of arrests and investigations into hybrid attacks on the country emerges daily, while Russia is increasingly openly increasing pressure on the South Caucasus republic.
Until a few years ago, a bastion of Moscow in the region, Yerevan is today trying to free itself from the influence of its former ally, secure a lasting peace with its historical enemy Azerbaijan, normalize relations with Turkey, and strengthen ties with the West, redefining itself as a bridge between Asia and Europe.
The June 7 vote is, without exaggeration, the most important in Armenia’s modern history.
Decisive choices for the future
Voters will have to decide on key issues: continue the path followed by the current government or bring back to power figures linked to the previous system? Strengthen partnerships with the US and the European Union or revive ties with Russia? Continue the difficult process of reconciliation with Baku and Ankara or revise existing agreements, risking destabilizing the entire process?
The moment of truth for Pashinyan
For Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the leader of the Velvet Revolution that brought him to power in 2018, these elections represent the moment of truth.
Armenia has been through some very difficult times since the last elections, held after the disastrous 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan managed to regain the trust of the citizens, but this time the challenge is even greater.
His second term has been marked by dramatic events: Azerbaijani military incursions into Armenian territory, the occupation of some 200 square kilometers of sovereign land, and then the collapse of the separatist republic of Artsakh.
In September 2023, against the backdrop of the inaction of Russian peacekeeping forces and a lukewarm international response, Azerbaijan ended the military operation it had launched three years earlier, causing the mass exodus of the Armenian community that had lived in the region for centuries.
Departure from Moscow
These developments brought about a continued cooling of relations between Yerevan and Moscow, as well as with the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the military alliance led by Russia.
Pashinyan suspended Armenia’s participation in the organization and demanded the removal of Russian border troops from the capital’s airport, as well as the gradual reduction of their presence at land borders.
However, he clarified that the Russian military base in Gyumri is not under discussion.
Armenia then joined the International Criminal Court and the parliament passed the law to launch the European integration process.
Approaching Europe
The pro-European turn became particularly noticeable on May 4, when the European Political Community summit was held in Yerevan, attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A day later, the first bilateral Armenia-EU summit was held.
On May 9, during Victory Day celebrations, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Armenia to organize a referendum so that citizens could choose between European integration and remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union.
Putin also drew a parallel with the “Ukrainian scenario,” recalling that tensions with Kiev in 2014 began precisely after Ukraine’s rapprochement with Brussels.
Pashinyan’s strategy
Pashinyan has taken a more balanced stance.
“We have never acted and will not act against Russia’s interests, but we cannot put its interests above our own,” he declared at an election rally.
His goal is not geopolitical clash, but rather transforming Armenia into a strategic trade hub between Asian and European markets.
The Kremlin’s “war”
The Kremlin is trying at all costs to prevent his reelection.
Russia has restricted Armenian exports and threatened to remove customs exemptions for supplies of gas, oil and diamonds.
According to the McCain Institute’s pre-election mission report, Russia has intensified disinformation campaigns, using cloned websites and social networks.
Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, based on confidential documents and Western intelligence sources, the Kremlin is planning to transport tens of thousands of voters living in Russia to Armenia to influence the election outcome.
Pashinyan’s opponents
The Armenian opposition is dominated by pro-Russian political forces. The parties most likely to enter parliament support strengthening relations with Moscow.
Meanwhile, Pashinyan enjoys the full support of the West, which was also made apparent through a public message of support from Donald Trump.
What do the polls show?
All polls put the ruling party, Civil Contract, in first place with around 30% of the vote.
In second place is Strong Armenia, led by Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, with support ranging from 6% to 15%.
Two other political forces, the alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and the party of billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan, are showing very different results in the polls.
Although Pashinyan remains the clear favorite, an absolute majority still seems far away. The result of June 7 will determine not only the next government, but also the strategic direction of Armenia at a crucial moment in its history./ La Repubblica
https://www.voxnews.al/english/kosovabota/armenia-drejt-zgjedhjeve-te-historise-putini-i-shpall-lufte-pashinyan-i117588
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