The authorities gave freedom to the banks, and the banks enjoy that freedom. By setting widespread high prices for intermediary services, they have been emptying the pockets of citizens and businesses for years. Nikol Pashinyan and members of the Communist Party, who once thought that banks were engaged in robbery, have turned the banking system into a scourge for citizens and businesses. Despite widespread complaints, nothing is being done to curb the banks’ appetite.

After massive complaints, recently, of course, the Central Bank decided to slightly reduce the commissions charged for cashless transactions with bank cards for small businesses. But they did it not because they are worried about small business and decided to curb the appetite of banks, but because the interests of the government demand it before the elections. Although it seems that the banks have also found an option to get out of that situation dry. They decided to replace those “losses” by increasing the price of other services.

The appetite of banks is great, especially in the credit market. There is no way they want to reduce the interest on loans, despite the fact that money has become cheaper in the last few years. We are talking about the money leaving the Central Bank.

Three years ago, the price of money coming out of the Central Bank was 10.75 percent, today it is only 6.50 percent. It decreased by 4.25 percentage points.

This is a serious devaluation of money, which implies that the banks should also reduce the interest rates on loans provided by them to citizens and businesses. But the banks, enjoying the patronage and assistance of the government, continue to keep the price of loans high. Not only do they not reduce the loan interest, but they also increase it.

Three years ago, the average interest rate of dram loans with a term of up to 1 year in the banking system was 11.76 percent. At that time, the price of money or refinancing rate was extremely high, it was at the peak of the last years, it was 10.75 percent. And in the conditions of that peak, the loan interest rate was incomparably lower than now.

One year later, in 2024. in January, the price of money was 9.25 percent, and the average interest rate on short-term dram loans increased from 11.76 to 12.76 percent.

They increased the price by 1 percentage point, although the price of money decreased by 1.5 percentage points during that time.

Next: 2025 in January, the price of money coming out of the Central Bank fell sharply, making 7 percent, while interest rates on dram loans with a term of up to 1 year continued to rise, reaching 13 percent.

At the beginning of this year, banks increased the price of such loans again.

Now the price of money coming out of the Central Bank is 6.50 percent, and the average interest rate of short-term dram loans has reached a record 13.41 percent.

Over the course of three years, money became cheaper by 4.25 percentage points, and dram loans with a term of up to 1 year, instead of becoming cheaper, became more expensive by 1.65 percentage points. In the case of this type of loans, the bank margin is already incredibly high. As a result of this, banks get big profits, and these profits are primarily at the expense of citizens, taking into account the fact that short-term dram loans are primarily consumer loans, which citizens are often forced to use to solve their household problems.

Just 3 years ago, in the case of short-term dram loans, the bank margin was only 1 percentage point, now it is almost 7 times larger. The price of these loans is more than double the refinancing rate. This means that when the bank borrows money from the Central Bank at 6.50%, it raises that percentage at least twice and gives it to the citizens.

With such means, money is made at the expense of the citizens, and the authorities follow all this indifferently. Moreover, they do everything so that the banks do not reduce the interest rates on loans. What is needed for that? You just need to subsidize loan interest and keep demand artificially high.

Now they have decided to provide interest-free loans to the villagers on the eve of the elections. Interest-free to the extent that the state budget should cover those interests instead of the peasants. Banks will benefit from this. The victim, naturally, is the state budget. But who pays attention to this? The state’s money has no owner, and the government can afford such extravagances for political purposes. They take the money out of the budget and put it in the banks’ pockets.

According to the latest data, the loans of the banking system approach 21 billion dollars, of which the largest portfolio is short-term dram loans. Such loans, which are primarily of consumer importance, approach 5 billion dollars. They are not only expensive loans, but also, as we see, they are getting more and more expensive. The government is not doing anything to curb the appetite of the banks.

Even the steps of the Central Bank to lower the price of money, which at first glance tend to “force” banks to reduce loan interest rates, are not yielding results. But with the same logic that limited the price of trade mediation for small businesses, they do not intend to limit credit interest. Banks, for obvious reasons, do not tend to limit their own appetite.

And it turned out that as much as possible, they oppress people with expensive loans, they advance the interests of banks. Market pricing and demand have become an excuse to keep the price of loans artificially high.

 HAKOB KOCHARYAN

—

Writer, public speaker, public and political figure, doctor, active participant of the Karabakh movement, People’s Deputy of the USSR Zori Balayan died. This was reported by his son, Hayk Balayan.

He was 91 years old.

—

The 17th century was a period in human history when geographical discoveries, the expansion of trade routes, and the formation of colonial orders fundamentally changed human thinking.

One of the most painful points of those changes was the large-scale development of slavery, which had profound consequences not only economically, but also socially and culturally. Slavery, though existing since ancient times, has become international in this century. People were captured, forcibly displaced and sold or exploited.

 

Thousands of people were deprived of their freedom, family and identity, subjected to inhumane conditions and hard labor. Slavery also became one of the pillars of the economic system of that period.

In the 17th century, the Armenian historian Leo wrote in detail about the enslavement of people, exploitation of slaves and slave markets, who gives a general overview of the situation in that period, especially in our region. He describes where, in particular, the captives were sold and where they were captured.

“The source of slavery was the slave trade, which took place in specially famous markets. Derbend slave market was very famous in the borders of the Caucasus. There were gathered the captives who were brought from Dagestan and other countries, even from Russia, by the hands of rapacious mountaineers.

Here, in this market, which gained international importance, merchants met each other from all sides, and especially from Persia, which especially needed slaves from the Caucasian countries. Deprived of freedom and reduced to the status of animals, people were not as important for economic affairs, working hands, as they were needed for sexual, procreative purposes.” (Leo, “Collection of Countries”, Volume 3, Yerevan, 1969, p. 70).

Jean Chardin, a well-known French traveler of the period, also wrote in detail about the enslavement of people in that period, who passed through the Black Sea while traveling and tells in detail how people were sold for what price, who bought them and for what purpose. Leo recounts Chardin’s story in detail.

“Chardin traveled on the Black Sea in a ship that collected slaves from the shores. The buyers were Turkish and Christian merchants. They bought and instead gave various products, valuing them much higher than their true value. Here are the values ​​of the human product reported by the French traveler. A man aged 25-40 was bought for 15 AMD. above that height – 8-10 ECU.

Beautiful girls aged 13-18 were valued the most, for which a price of 20 ecus was given. Women cost 12 and children 3-4 ecus. “A Greek merchant, who was in the room next to mine, bought a woman, her nipples with a child, giving 12 ecus…

The woman would be 25 years old, with a face as white as snow, with charming features. I have never seen a more beautiful breast, a more tender neck. It surprised me that the plight of these unfortunate creatures did not have a killing effect on them. It even seemed to me that they did not feel their situation. As soon as they bought them and they escaped, they immediately took off the shawls covering them, put on new linen, new clothes and forced them to work.

Men and boys were put to work on the ship, and women and girls were ordered to sew. It seemed that they had enough of both the clothes and the food they received, but the work was hard for them, so they were often forced to work with sticks.” (Ibid., p. 71).

The above passage states that the basis of enslaving, selling, and exploiting people was the bad social conditions and period. In the 17th century, slavery was not only the result of economic interests, but also a gross violation of human dignity. Man had turned into a commodity whose value was measured by age, appearance and physical abilities.

Such phenomena left a deep mark not only in the destinies of individuals, but also in the history of different peoples. As a result, social inequality, violence and moral crisis were formed.

These historical facts about slavery compel us to realize what freedom is and always fight for it. And in modern times, the struggle for one’s identity and freedom is only with weapons and the preservation of national identity.

Z. Sh:i was late

—

In the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit. every

“As Christ rose from the dead

By the glory of the Father, let us also walk in newness of life.”

(Rev. 6.4)

Dear faithful people,

Today, in united churches, we celebrate the Holy and Miraculous Resurrection of our Lord Jesus Christ. We praise God, who accepted every sacrifice, suffered, was crucified, buried and resurrected for our salvation. The way to a new life was illuminated by the Savior’s Resurrection. Our Lord Jesus, the Savior, called humanity, separated from God by Adam’s sin and subject to the power of death, to a resurrected life, so that, freed from the shackles of evil and death, it would be worthy of the Lord’s saving graces and inherit the kingdom of heaven. “Just as Christ rose from the dead by the glory of the Father, let us also walk in newness of life,” says the apostle.

With the salvation of the Lord, man was given the divine blessing to return to the Heavenly Father with repentance and to find the bright path of resurrection from the darkness of suffering. The Christ-given life begins, dear ones, with the renewal of the heart and soul, when the individual is strengthened by faith, lives in the presence of God, becomes a new creature, creates good and praiseworthy things. With faith in the Resurrection of Christ and the implementation of the Lord’s commandments, it is possible to give up bad ways, overcome the difficulties of time and walk in the paths of love, truth and justice, as the apostle urges. “Walk like sons of God. for the fruits of the light are goodness, justice and truth” (Eph. 5:8-9).

Indeed, with faith in the Resurrection, a new dawn in the history of humanity will be opened, the world will be reformed, and the just hopes of universal peace and security will be realized. In the confusion of the world, however, it seems that the apostle’s exhortation and evangelical messages are muted, and God’s creation is dishonored and endangered by evil deeds and iniquities, the life of mankind is wavered and sunk by conflicts, enmity and wars. In order to establish a good and just world, in the conditions of the current multi-faceted threats, nations and states should more zealously pursue the will of the Most High God in order to overcome the existing difficult trials, to strengthen the foundations of universal solidarity, peaceful coexistence and effective cooperation. It is generally through such efforts that peoples will “beat their swords into pruning hooks and their spears into pruning hooks. nation will not lift up sword against nation, and they will no longer learn to fight,” as the prophet announced (Isaiah 2:4).

Beloved, years after the tragic war in Artsakh, the anxieties and concerns still do not leave our hearts, which yearn for peace and security. Our people know best the value of peace and security, for which the children of our nation paid with their lives. The sorrows and wounds we have suffered are still fresh, the pain of which is deepened today by the violation of the rights of Artsakh Armenians, by the illegal imprisonment of our fellow countrymen. The pain deepens when the weeds of division continue to be sown, when cherished values ​​are ignored and distorted, when arbitrary and selective justice is applied, and when the authorities repress the Church with false and fabricated accusations. The Church in Christ is unshakable, powerful and invincible. The church is the house of God, the collective of believers, the supporter and evangelizer of peace, fraternal love with its saving mission, the silent preacher of the miraculous Resurrection of Christ. The Church is constantly raising the invitation to the inspired life in order to keep its children away from despair, injustices and declines, to keep the homeland and national pride away from losing paths. The resurrected life can never be through alienation and separation from each other, mutilation of Christian values, belittling and limiting the mission of the Church, distorting national interests, begging for justice and truth. Until we reject evil deeds and destructive steps, we cannot establish awakening and flourishing, progress and well-being in personal and public life and create indestructible prospects for the permanence of our people.

Now, dear ones, our Patriarchal message is: let us choose good over evil, peace over disorder, honesty and uprightness over lies and deceit, mutual respect and support over dishonor and treachery. Let us be guided by the commitment to exclude harmful and destructive phenomena, by the determination to stand up from our defeats and by the zeal to keep the ancestral heritage intact. Let’s give preference to love, solidarity, unity, so that with joint efforts we can get up from the hardships and difficulties that plagued us, strengthen our statehood and build the nation’s progress and prosperity. Let us always be faithful to our Lord, Who “gave His life for us, to save us from all unrighteousness, and to purify us as His own people, zealous for good works” (Tit. 2:14).

With the glad tidings of the Holy Resurrection, we send our fraternal greetings from the Mother Church of Miatznaej to the Thrones of the Endowed Chairs of our Holy Apostolic Church, H.E. Aram I to the Catholicos of the Great House of Cilicia, the Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem Most Venerable Fr. Archbishop Nurhan Manukyan, Armenian Patriarch of Constantinople His Holiness Fr. To Archbishop Sahak Mashalyan, to all the pilgrims of our Holy Church. We send our greetings to our spiritual brothers in Christ, the Fathers of sister Churches, and their faithful flock. Patriarchal Our love and blessing to our people who are zealous for national and spiritual values. Our paternal appreciation to all of you, dear ones, for your faithfulness and warm devotion to our homeland and our Holy Church. We have felt and continue to feel the power of your prayer every day. With you, our Holy Church is strong and unshakable, which was not even destroyed by the trials of centuries. With you is the powerful, strong and luminous Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. Continue to live in prayer, act and create with love for your homeland and the Mother Church, for the benefit of the construction and bright future of our country.

On this spiritual day, let’s raise a prayer together to the Almighty God, that He will grant peace and security to the whole world and our native land with His insatiable mercy. Let’s ask that our people around the world will be strengthened with heavenly life-giving gifts, live a life full of faith, with a brave and unbreakable spirit to overcome difficulties. Let’s pray that the love of truth, justice and unity will be constant in our nation, so that with good results, with new achievements for the benefit of the nation and the benefit of the country, we will create the dreams and aspirations of our people with a vision for the future, for the glory of God and for the benefit of the brightness of the nation and our Holy Apostolic Church. Let’s also pray for our brothers and sisters suffering from the horrors of war, the illegally imprisoned, the missing and their families, as well as those who are in distress and deprivation, and those who long for healing.

May God’s most providential Right, love and blessings be upon us all today and always and forever. every

Christ rose from the dead,

Blessed is the Resurrection Christ

—

The 3rd President of the Republic of Armenia, the President of the RPA Serzh Sargsyan congratulated on Easter.

“For centuries, the great Avetis of the Feast of the Resurrection reminds us of one truth: when the people are separated from evil and return to the light, their new life begins. And we are obliged to build that new life together for the sake of Armenia.”

—

“Classes” in the program Doctor of political sciences, professor, energy security specialist Vahe Davtyan talked about handing over the South Caucasian Railway concession to Kazakhstan.

The latter, among other important issues, also talked about handing over our railway concession to Kazakhstan.

According to him, there are unverified data that an area of ​​500 meters width is provided for TRIPP, which, if approved, raises serious questions. What is that huge area for, what are they going to put there?

«And parallel to this, we see talks about changing the Armenian railway model developing at the official level. Pashinyan is talking about handing over the concession of “South Caucasus Railway” to the Kazakh side. If the Kazakh capital is brought to our railway network, it means the actualization of the Middle Corridor, the Turan Corridor, in the territory of Armenia. The withdrawal of Russian capital from our railway system is in the interests of Turkey and the USA,” Vahe Davtyan said.

To remind: A few days ago, when Nikol Pashinyan was asked in a briefing whether during his telephone conversation with Putin, the question of urgently transferring the concession of “South Caucasian Railway” to a third party was raised, because there are discussions about transferring it to a Kazakh company, Pashinyan expressed hope that a partnership solution would be given to this issue.

“We will not mind if it turns out that there is a mutual understanding between us and Russia, that the Kazakh company is acceptable to both of us…

It’s not like we sit down and discuss with the Russian partners… because the Russian partners have not yet said: OK, we agree, let’s do it that way. I mean, the discussion is in a different mode, but there are such ideas floating around,” he said.

Back in mid-February, Pashinyan announced that his idea about the railway is that any country friendly with Armenia and Russia buys the right to manage it from Russia.

“There are forces within the framework of TRIPP who say: let’s make it so that after Meghri, when it enters Nakhijevan, it does not enter Nakhijevan and bypass Armenia. Naturally, our international partners say: “How can I bypass Armenia? Armenia is our partner.” There, those who want to bypass Armenia say that the railways of Armenia are under the control of Russia. We are doing everything to convince that, yes, it is under the management of Russia, but it is the property of Armenia, and Russia does not want to and will not create any obstacles regarding regional projects in any way,” he said.

It was talked about for a long time, he also mentioned that the concession could be transferred to Qatar, Bahrain or even the United Arab Emirates. We should also remind that Kazakhstan is a member of the Organization of Turkic States. Therefore, as a result of the deal, Turkey and Azerbaijan will have greater leverage to influence the railway.

Details in the video.

—

In recent years, when everything has become more expensive in Armenia and Armenia has long been one of the leaders in the cost of living not only in the region but also in the world, it is appropriate to remember the speeches of the opposition MP Nikol Pashinyan years ago and the sarcastic statements addressed to the authorities of that time regarding price increases.

“Dear people, the price of butter has increased, eat mixed greens. Lamb meat has become more expensive, eat green onions, it’s very useful, no joke,” Nikol Pashinyan mocked the authorities from the podium of the National Assembly.

Now the price of butter has increased, as well as mixed greens, onions, and meat, and not only lamb, but also beef, and many other products, but Nikol Pashinyan no longer mocks the authorities, he does not say: people, the price of butter has increased, eat mixed greens, the price of lamb has increased, eat green onions, it is very useful.

The other day, when the CP members who went on a political walk were meeting in the streets of Yerevan, one of the citizens complained that instead of giving them so many bonuses, they should think a little more about the people, because the people also want to eat a piece of meat. And what will Nikol Pashinyan say? He says: we have increased the pension, from April 1 you can eat a piece of meat. It’s okay that for so many years people have been deprived of the opportunity to eat a piece of meat with their pension. But it’s not like they will be able to eat after April 1. Because before the pensions would increase from April 1, the price of meat has already managed to rise sharply enough in the last few months. With the added 10,000 drams, a pensioner can barely buy 2-2.5 kilograms of meat during the whole month, if we do not consider that the pensioner needs to buy many other things.

Now, the price of ordinary, boned beef reaches 4.1 thousand drams on average. At the end of last year, it fluctuated around 3.6 thousand.

In just 2-3 months, the price has increased by almost 13-14 percent. If the price increase was due to the fact that people have started to earn more and are able to buy more meat, it can still be understood to some extent. But that is not why the price has increased.

It has become more expensive because there is no meat, the number of livestock has decreased, the production and supply of meat has decreased. And this has led to an increase in the price of meat.

In a few months, the price of beef has increased by almost 500 drams. This price increase may not be felt by the members of the CP who receive millions of bonuses, but hundreds and thousands of citizens who manage somehow cannot help but feel it. It is not surprising that after the recent price increase, the consumption of meat has been significantly reduced. It was reduced because many people cannot afford such “luxury” and buy meat for 4.1 thousand drams. What’s more, the price of meat was not less high before that, now it has increased even more.

The increase in the price of beef is a consequence of the government’s policy. In recent years, the number of cattle has been significantly reduced. But it is not the case that the villagers no longer want to keep livestock. They just did it in such a way that the possibilities of keeping were limited, the pastures were reduced. The former pastures were handed over to the enemy, and in many places they became unusable due to being under enemy fire.

Part of the feed base for cattle breeding used to come from Artsakh. After surrendering Artsakh, they were also deprived of it.

Because of all this, the number of cattle has decreased. This is a direct consequence of the policies implemented by today’s rulers of Armenia, which is borne not only by the peasants, but also by all consumers.

It is funny when, in order to hide the government’s failures, the officials of the Ministry of Economy try to justify the increase in the price of meat with seasonality. As if the farmers prefer to stop slaughtering meat in this period, that’s why the price of meat has increased. It seems that they did not behave the same way in previous years and there were not the same seasonal factors. They don’t even say that the number of cattle has been reduced so much that when the fur is a little less, it causes such shocks in the meat market.

Of course, other factors also affected the increase in the price of meat. And it turned out that it caused a shortage of meat in the domestic market, leading to an increase in prices.

This would not have happened if they had thought about developing animal husbandry, increasing the number of livestock and local meat production. For years, they have been implementing a program called “smart cattle ranches” in order to allegedly develop cattle breeding. In almost 7 years, they built only a few dozen cattle sheds. That’s how they want to develop animal husbandry. It is not surprising that animal husbandry, like all agriculture, should be in this state.

As always, they follow events. After the price of beef increased, the minister of economy remembered that there is cattle breeding in Armenia. After the voiced complaints and criticisms, Gevorg Papoyan, who is also the minister of agriculture, hastened to announce that the government will soon implement a long-awaited support program for our citizens engaged in animal husbandry.

Gevorg Papoyan is not in a hurry to publicize what the expected program is about. He is probably waiting for the elections to come closer so that he can pay another bribe to the citizens at the expense of state funds. But it is natural that the price of meat will not decrease, nor will the consumer become more solvent. Even if there is a “long-awaited support program”, its results, at best, will be felt years later. And today, the citizen will have to bear the consequences of the increase in the price of beef, as well as all other goods and services in general.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

—

“Classes” in the program Doctor of political sciences, professor, energy security specialist Vahe Davtyanspoke about the gas shortage in Europe in the current situation and the role of Turkey and Russia in filling this shortage, as well as nuclear threats.

«The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there is a shortage of oil and gas in Europe. Turkey is more than skillfully trying to adapt to this situation, which is trying to diversify the export of natural gas to Europe through “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream”. Russia will try to fill that deficit in the form of indirect supplies, but this does not mean that there are no bypass ways, and one of those ways is Turkey, and that is the reason why Turkey is showing a rather passive attitude now,” said the energy security expert.

As for nuclear weapons, he said proliferation must be controlled, and in this regard the IAEA must be given real tools to influence the internal decisions of states, otherwise nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of, for example, various terrorist organizations at any moment. 

«We must closely monitor Turkey’s development of nuclear weapons. This is also brought to the Azerbaijani agenda. Aliyev has already announced the development of a peaceful atom several times, but taking into account the relations between Azerbaijan-Turkey, Azerbaijan-Pakistan, which is a nuclear power, of course, at some point, Azerbaijan will transform the peaceful atom into a military atom. In this regard, even more so, we should not allow our Metsamor nuclear power plant to be closed,” Vahe Davtyan said.

Details in the video.

—

The war against Iran and the international reaction

The US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRA) has been going on for over a month. This illegitimate military operation once again showed that the philosophy of foreign policy in the world has changed a lot in recent years. If relatively recently the world still relied on international agreements and international rules, then in recent years everything has turned around. Force became law. International jurisprudence has somehow gone out of the basic principles of conducting international relations.

International organizations, which were supposed to monitor the observance of laws, showed surprising indifference. Starting with the UN and other international organizations, which includes the IRA, they have shown a strange passivity, they have not announced any tough measures against the aggressors before, limiting themselves to «serious concern» expressing and «to end the conflict as soon as possible» with calls. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which unites all Muslim countries, also did not express itself clearly. ohTherefore, the main principle of international relations is now: whoever is stronger is right. athat is, essentially, power «the truth» is a new factor that is more and more established in the world.

Similarities and Differences in US and Israeli Goals Towards Iran

Definitely Trump, starting the aggression «in an epic rage» under a sound name, was planning a blitzkrieg in some Iranian version of Venezuela. But it seems to have gone seriously wrong. Iran has shown and is showing serious resistance to America and Israel, bringing unpredictability to world affairs in all directions.

Moreover, it can be argued that there is a certain difference between Trump’s goals and Israel’s goals in Iran. For Donald Trump, despite various statements, it does not matter what regime there is or will be in Iran: Islamic, non-Islamic, monarchical, republican, democratic, non-democratic. The most important thing for Trump is that any regime in that country follows his provisions, instructions and fulfills all his demands. Moreover, Trump “will not mind” if the current regime falls, and is doing everything possible for that. However, it seems that Mr. Trump would agree to leave Tehran alone if the latter ahead go to the terms of the US president.

Unlike Trump, the Islamic leadership of Iran does not satisfy the Israelis in principle. Because for them this regime represents a country that is the last in the world that does not recognize the possibility of the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. It is known that many Islamic countries do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, strongly criticize it, but none of them declares that Israel should disappear from the political map of the world. As a result, The main problem of Israel in Iran is the change of the regime or its destruction, if, of course, it succeeds. Still not working։

Thus, Trump and Israel have common goals for Iran tactically and operationally: the weakening of the regime and the weakening of the Islamic Republic.։ In turn, the strategic objectives are somewhat different. True, not so much that it affects the conduct of military operations. This difference is more theoretical. However, it also affects political practice.

About the Iranian-American negotiations

Thus, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was concerned about Trump’s statements about starting negotiations with Tehran. He is clearly concerned that the US president could strike a deal with Iran without regard to the Jewish state’s security interests, limiting Israel’s ability to strike Iranian territory.

A few words about the ongoing Iranian-American negotiations. Trump talks about them, Iranian politicians deny the fact of dialogue. Most likely is underway familiar with each other’s opinionsspring but not at a high level. Tehran insists that there are no talks, but does not deny that in the case of indirect contacts, the terms, or in other words the demands of the parties to end the war, are being exchanged through countries such as Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan. It was recently reported that China strongly and very convincingly advised US Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to meet in Pakistan. It is not known how true this information is, and if so, whether such a meeting will take place at all or not.

At the same time, Trump is trying to convince everyone that the negotiations are also going on at a high level, hinting at the participation of Majlis Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf. The Iranian mass media called such statements by the US president a “special psychological operation” aimed at creating division in their country. For the sake of objectivity, it should be stated that there are debates, not divisions, as evidenced by the heated debate within the elites regarding Tehran’s further actions.

It is possible that Trump pursues other goals. He announces the allegedly ongoing negotiations, for the success of which he agreed to postpone the total strike on Iran’s energy facilities, first for five days, then for ten days, until April 6. Such tactics by Trump could speak to his plans to buy time to move special forces troops, which include the famous 82nd Airborne Division, to the combat zone. These troops are intended to carry out local amphibious operations.

It cannot be ruled out that Trump hopes that the current, new leadership of Iran will make compromises with him and agree, if not to all American demands, then at least to some of them. And it will give Trump the coveted opportunity to declare a final victory over Iran. Although, in my opinion, such an option is unlikely. The mutual demands of the USA and Iran are contradictory.

Mutual exclusive claims of the parties to each other

like this The White House demands that Iran fulfill its demands. They boil down to the following.

1. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open and will be a free zone for ships.

2. The number and range of Iran’s ballistic missiles will be limited.

3. Iran will give up nuclear weapons. Uranium enrichment will not be carried out on the territory of Iran. Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves will be transferred to the IAEA. Nuclear facilities, including the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, the nuclear fuel production research center and plant at Isfahan, will be decommissioned and decommissioned. Iran is committed to ensuring full nuclear transparency and conducting appropriate independent inspections.

4. Iran will withdraw support and funding of its proxy groups in the Middle East, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, Iraq’s Ghataib Hezbollah, and Palestine’s Hamas.

5. Iran will announce the end of the war with the USA and Israel.

6. Sanctions against Iran will be lifted. The sanctions recovery mechanism will be suspended.

7. The US will provide assistance to Iran in the development of civilian nuclear energy at the Bushehr facility.

In practice, these are all the demands that Washington was putting forward as early as June 2025, before the start of the first war.

For its part, Tehran is putting forward its own conditions for the cessation of hostilities։

1. The USA and its allies will fully compensate Iran for the damage caused by the war (there are still no approximate estimates of this damage).

2. Consolidates Iran’s control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with the possibility of charging a toll for passage, similar to Egypt’s control over the Suez Canal.

3. The US gives Iran guarantees of non-aggression, including from American allies (first of all, Israel).

4. Israel stops the operation against the Hezbollah group in Lebanon.

5. The US closes all military bases in the Middle East (they are in all the countries of the Persian Gulf: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, as well as in Iraq, Jordan and Syria).

6. All sanctions are removed from Iran.

7. Iran’s missile program is not subject to any restrictions.

It is doubtful that the US and Iran will be able to reach not only a mutual agreement, but also an understanding of the enemy’s positions based on the above-mentioned requirements to each other.: The official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghai, has already confirmed that the conflict resolution plan addressed to the US contains unrealistic demands, reports “Al-Jazeera”. In addition, Baghai again emphasized that Iran did not participate in the negotiations with the USA.

As for Israel, it is seen in Tehran as a vassal of America, unworthy of mention except as an “illegitimate Zionist regime”. But sometimes that “Zionist tail wags the imperialist dog”, insisting on pursuing an increasingly tough policy towards Iran.

On March 19, Netanyahu gave a summary of the results of the 20 days of the war. And he, in particular, mentioned the three goals of his anti-Iranian “lion’s roar” operation: the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of ballistic potential and the creation of conditions in which the Iranian people will be able to take their destiny into their own hands. In other words, to prepare a revolution. Mr. Netanyahu was more succinct than Mr. Trump, but looked forward to the revolutionary prospect. This once again confirms that Israel does not want to reconcile with the existence of the current Islamic regime in Iran.

The time to attack Iran was not chosen by chance. the situation in and around the Republic of Iran is critical

It seems that Trump and Netanyahu did not choose the time to attack Iran by chance. Let’s not say whether one or the other had internal political reasons for starting their “victorious” war. Focusing on Iran, it would be fair to say that in the eyes of Trump and Netanyahu, the Islamic Republic looked extremely weak in late 2025-early 2026.

It seems that the pro-Iranian “axis of resistance” created in the Middle East by the legendary IRGC general Soleimani, according to analysts, Iran’s unique “nuclear bomb”, is almost eliminated.։ Its most formidable members, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, are themselves fighting for survival.

The Houthis in Yemen (who have already declared war on the US and Israel and have fired missiles at Israel) and various Shiite militias in Iraq may carry out isolated strikes on ships or American land bases in the Red Sea, but they are unlikely to seriously affect the overall course of the war. Although, this war shows that all this created a real crisis in the world economy in all different directions.

A tense situation has arisen between Iran and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Tehran has carried out large-scale operations to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has created painful problems not only for the Gulf countries, which are exporters of hydrocarbons, but also for a large number of importers, consumers of Middle Eastern oil and gas, who have finally spoken out against Tehran’s actions.

Recently, there was even a call from the Persian Gulf countries to the USA, which asked Washington to finally solve the “Iranian issue” and eliminate the threat from Tehran. In addition, there they announced their readiness to support America and Israel. Moreover, if at first the Arab monarchies were neutral and even sympathized with Iran, seeing it as a victim of aggression, which is the case, then after Iran attacked them and the American military bases, closing the Strait of Hormuz, they came out against Tehran, already being in solidarity with the USA and Israel.

The situation around Iran is complicated by the difficult situation created inside the country։ It is expressed in many areas. One month of combat operations has dealt a significant blow to the country’s governance system. From the very beginning of the aggression, the Americans and Israelis started a hunt against the leadership of the country, and on the first day they killed the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, on March 18, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, an influential politician, who, in fact, took control of the country, was killed. Many military and state leaders were killed and wounded during the war. And it has been going on for a month.

However, It is known that after the 12-day war, a clear system was created in Iran to replace the dead leaders. Three or four candidates are “fixed” for each official position in the military and state apparatus in case of the “resignation” of the current leader. In other words, after the death of a commander or some statesman, another person has already been appointed in his place, and he takes the position of the deceased without delay. Thus, a new layer of leaders instantly appears.

It’s no secret that the Americans and Israelis are trying to reach the level of military and politicians with these cynical murders, who would agree to the terms and ultimatums of Trump and Israel, and would essentially sign the capitulation of Iran. However, against the wishes of the Americans and Israelis, the generals of the IRGC, hardened in the battles of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), are coming to new positions.

Thus, the commander of the corps in that war, General Mohsen Rezai, became the chief military advisor of Mojtaba Khamenei. Mohammad Bagher Zolkadr, another IRGC general, who once held the post of IRGC deputy commander and head of the Joint Staff coordinating the operations of the IRGC and the army, was appointed as the successor of the murdered Larijani as the Secretary of the National Security Council. Later, he held high positions in the judicial system of Iran. It is impossible not to mention the current leader of the Mejlis, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also a general of the IHPK.

These facts prove that after the death of Khamenei, there were clear signs that a soft coup by the IRGC took place in the Islamic Republic, as a result of which the IRGC took the supreme power in its hands under the conditions of American-Israeli aggression. Although before that, of course, the corps was very influential economically, politically, and militarily, but now it has in its hands almost all the levers of management of the centralized state.. On behalf of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, whether he is alive or not, sick or healthy, the top leaders of the IRGC exercise supreme power in the current regime. It is noteworthy that Mojtaba Khamenei, the third leader in the history of the Republic of Iran, who was elected to that position with the support of the IRPC, has never once made a speech not only in front of the people, but also has not yet made any audio or video announcements.

In connection with the increased role of the IRGC, some disagreements arose between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian (de facto deposed) and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi on issues of war and peace.: Pezeshkian criticized the corps’ approach to the escalation of the conflict and continued attacks on neighboring countries, warning of serious economic consequences. The president demanded to return governance to civilian authorities, but Vahidi rejected that demand. The strengthening of the role of the IRGC during the war, confirmed even by American experts, shows the country’s resilience and ability to adapt to the loss of many high-ranking military and civilian officials.

War, Economy and US Plans

The war, with its destruction and victims, exhausts the economic potential of Iran, which was in a systemic crisis in many areas even before the war.

Moreover, if we talk about the economy, for now the oil and gas industry is preserved, but, as can be understood, the aggressors, the USA and Israel, want to leave it for later, so that later, after the war, it will be possible to orient the entire oil and gas industry under their leadership in the direction that is beneficial to them, first of all, to the USA and Trump. Therefore, the situation, taking into account Trump’s demands, is extremely difficult, and it can be said that there are not many prospects for its improvement.

Donald Trump and the Race Against Time

How long will this war last? No one knows it, including its initiator, US President Donald Trump։ However, despite this, it can be boldly stated that Trump is in temporary grips. He needs a victory as soon as possible. Moreover, the victory is not in the universally accepted classical concept. It is about “his” victory, where certain tasks and goals are set, which Trump will declare accomplished. “Keeping his finger on the pulse” and looking at his watch all the time, Trump is constantly turning to Congress.

As a reminder, on November 3, 2026, mid-term elections for the US House of Representatives, Senate, as well as many other federal, regional and local elections are scheduled. Their results may to some extent determine the fate of the Republican Party and, accordingly, Trump.

That’s why Trump needs a quick and “victorious” war in order to show his achievements in Congress before the elections and that he is the “salvation” of the Republicans. Therefore, Trump is certainly “limited” on time, as it follows from some Israeli sources that he expects another 4, 6 weeks of war at the most. It is doubtful whether the Americans will be able to “fulfill” the problems conceived by Trump.

The US president has put himself (yes, the entire US) in a wall position. Declaring victory without the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unrealistic (although according to some sources, abandoning the idea is being discussed). It is not possible to solve this problem only with aerial missile strikes. It means that a ground or local amphibious operation is necessary.

In recent days, the question of the large-scale ground operation of the US troops has been raised more often. But it is quite clear that it is impossible. Iran has a population of 93 million and, accordingly, many armed forces: the army, plus the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), 600-900 thousand people (according to various sources).

Ground troops represent a significant majority in the combined armed forces. They are numerous and equipped with quite modern weapons and combat equipment. And, of course, we should not forget about the “Basij” personnel who have been preparing for defense for years in each of the 31 provinces of Iran. This militia plays a huge role in the implementation of the ground defense of the country in the plans of the Iranian General Staff, up to the protection of even small settlements. According to the latest data, more than one million Iranians have already been mobilized in case of a US ground invasion in the southern direction of the country.

And in this regard, in order to carry out a ground operation in Iran, the Americans will have to send at least 400,000, or maybe 500,000 army soldiers with a huge amount of combat equipment, which will have to fight in the most difficult climatic and geographical conditions under the conditions of a powerful general defense.: Calling out such numbers, one can understand that it is impossible to wage such a struggle, because there will be huge casualties on the American side. With such losses, the Trump administration and all Republicans will look extremely disadvantaged in the November midterm elections. And not just in elections, but in the eyes of every American today, tomorrow and always.

Moreover, a ground invasion of Iranian territory would undoubtedly unite the population in the face of the actual presence of foreign soldiers.. And if today many Iranians dissatisfied with the Islamic regime look with hope to the “untouchable” destruction of the objects of the regime and government structures that do not satisfy them, then after the American boots enter the Iranian soil, everything can radically change.

Therefore, there is confidence that it will not be a large-scale ground operation, but certain short-term landing operations with relatively small forces to solve certain specific problems are quite real. A contingent of 2,500 US Marines and 2,500 sailors as part of the USS Tripoli amphibious assault group has already arrived in the theater of operations. Transport planes, strike fighters, landing equipment and tactical units are located on the ship.

82 Airborne transports are expected, the US Army’s main rapid response unit of the Division (The 82nd Airborne Division, with a crew of 18․000-20․000, includes three infantry brigade combat groups, an aviation brigade, a division artillery, a logistics brigade, and many specialized units: engineering, intelligence, electronic warfare, and air defense.

Each brigade combatant the group includes approximately 3․800-4․200 troops, three parachute battalions, a cavalry reconnaissance squadron, an artillery battalion with 18 M119A3 105mm howitzers, an engineer battalion and a logistics battalion. The basic principle is “18 hours”. This is the period during which the division must be ready to deploy anywhere in the world. This criterion determines everything: build, weapons, training and rotation)։ The unit is designed to land on the enemy’s territory with the capture and protection of key facilities: airports, ports, road intersections, industrial complexes.

The targets of those amphibious forces could possibly be the capture of Khark Island in the Persian Gulf, through which more than 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass. Israel and the US certainly know the cost, so they hit the military facilities on the island, various points, but the oil infrastructure and naval bases were not touched.

Why, because most likely, the United States intends to seize Khark Island in order to trade with Iran on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, or, if Tehran does not agree, to control the export of Iranian oil. It is not excluded that the US command envisages the capture of other islands near the sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as, possibly, the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf, in order to resolve the Hormuz issue by force.

It is safe to assume that such a local, yet large-scale amphibious operation will be followed by a powerful response from Iran, which will naturally lead to a sharp increase in the number of American casualties. It is a disaster for Trump. Neither the Congress, nor the Republican Party, nor the Americans will forgive him the multi-million victims. Trump’s situation is desperate. it is impossible to leave without the liberation of the Strait of Hormuz, it is impossible to solve this problem without an amphibious operation, the operation will lead to a large number of victims and, as a result, a political collapse for Donald Trump.

Moreover, as noted above, the American boot, even in the small Iranian islands, will fuel a wave of Persian patriotism and anti-Americanism, only strengthening the current government in Iran.

What scenario is possible for the Islamic Republic after the end of the war?

Today, predicting options for the development of events, different scenarios, is a thankless task. Too many incoming factors, too many facts unknown to observers, and sometimes secret plots that change the situation every day and every hour.

The main scenario is realistic: Iran will exist, there is no doubt about it. The question is, in what way? The Islamic Republic of Iran is unlikely to survive in its pre-war form. Yes, maybe with the old name and old state and political attributes, but it will be another Islamic republic, led not by old veterans of the Islamic Revolution, but by young Islamic Revolutionary Corps guards, pragmatists and outward-looking businessmen.

VLADIMIR SAZIN

Candidate of historical sciences

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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