Political analyst Garik Keryan believes the results of the US congressional midterm elections were entirely predictable, pointing to two main factors.
Speaking to Armenpress, Keryan discussed the elections to the US House of Representatives and Senate, outlining the characteristics of the electoral process and the circumstances that led to the results.
“The results were predictable, and the overwhelming majority of experts at most analytical centres expected the Republicans to lose their majority. This was due to two main factors. The first is that President Donald Trump failed in the war against Iran. He fell into the trap of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who persuaded him to launch large-scale operations against Iran. Trump and Netanyahu believed that the initial strikes would trigger a protest movement in Iran, the regime would change and they would conclude more favourable agreements with the new regime. They even envisaged the return of the Iranian shah’s heir. Everyone saw how it all ended. Even the killing of Iran’s supreme spiritual leader did not bring about regime change,” Keryan said.
He said the Iranian–American war was continuing and that the Islamic Republic of Iran had become a powerful geopolitical actor in recent months.
In his assessment, having withstood the US–Israel alliance, Iran has now closed the Strait of Hormuz and is setting its own terms, which could deal a serious blow to energy and economic capacity worldwide.
“All this was criticised by Trump’s opponents in Democratic-leaning US media, which were ‘shaming’ the president’s failed Middle East policy around the clock, calculating the losses and casualties. This was a powerful factor in the decline of Trump’s ratings and, consequently, those of the Republican Party,” Keryan said.
The political analyst also highlighted a second factor, arguing that many people overlooked another important circumstance.
“Domestic political changes in the US are a regular feature of American political culture. As a rule, since the Second World War, most US presidents have secured majorities in both chambers of Congress when winning presidential elections, but lost those majorities in the midterm elections two years later. This is not even necessarily a consequence of successes or failures, setbacks or achievements, although these also have an impact. Rather, American voters have a particular mindset: they always seek mechanisms of oversight and checks and balances at the highest levels of government,” Keryan said.
He said American voters were uncomfortable with both the legislative and executive branches being entirely in the hands of one political force. It had therefore become a pattern, an unwritten rule, for them to favour one party’s candidate in presidential elections and then seek to hand Congress to the opposing party in the midterms to establish oversight and checks and balances.
“I see nothing extraordinary here, despite Armenian media presenting it as an unprecedented, pivotal political event of decisive importance. In reality, nothing unusual has happened. It has always been this way,” the analyst said.
Asked whether, ahead of the presidential election in November 2028, the Democrats would seek to block Trump’s legislative initiatives, control funding and complicate appointments to key positions, or begin impeachment proceedings, Keryan said they were more likely to make the president’s work difficult.
“Many senior officials appointed by Trump must receive Senate approval, or their appointments must be discussed in the House of Representatives. This also applies to financial and economic matters, currency issues, and trade and customs agreements. But there is another reality here. The US Constitution gives the president unlimited powers. If we examine the characteristics of Trump’s administration, we see that the US president has almost monarchical powers and the right to veto decisions adopted by the legislature. The mechanism is such that, after exercising a veto twice, the president can implement his decision without congressional approval,” Keryan said.
He urged people not to forget that the most important foreign policy and financial matters remained exclusively within the US president’s powers and that he could take decisions unilaterally. Keryan cited historical examples in which attempts had been made to obstruct presidents, make their work more difficult or even impeach them, but they had taken decisions while bypassing Congress. He said this had happened during the presidencies of George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
“The next presidential election is indeed scheduled for November 2028, but under the US Constitution, the president hands over his powers only in January of the following year. This means executive power remains with Trump until 20 January 2029. However difficult they make his work, he will nevertheless be the one taking the most important decisions,” the analyst said.
Asked how the new balance of power in Washington would affect US foreign policy, Keryan said Trump would most likely begin acting more cautiously. He said the Republican leadership was thinking ahead to the next election, making it quite possible that Trump’s moves affecting the party’s ratings would be moderated or abandoned.
“The aim is to maintain the Republican Party’s ratings at a certain level so that it can put forward a competitive candidate in the next election. I assume the Republican Party has already focused on Vice-President Vance’s candidacy. If Trump continues to make unsuccessful moves that reduce the Republicans’ ratings, Vance will naturally have no chance of winning the 2028 presidential election. In that respect, Vance and his circle will work to restrain Trump and deter him from decisions or actions that could damage the Republicans’ reputation,” Keryan concluded.
The Democratic Party won the US congressional midterm elections held on 3 November, gaining control of both chambers of Congress: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The elections were held for all 435 seats in the lower chamber of Congress and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats.