Artak Zakaryan writes: “Dear opposition community,

I am sure that almost all of you have the same desire: to get rid of these authorities. But it is necessary to understand that only this rash is not enough. Every citizen of Armenia needs unity and street struggle before the elections. Otherwise, CP will falsify your wishes and doesn’t care about each of your votes. In order to keep those votes and to implement them, a broad mobilization and street fight is needed before and after the elections.

Recently, CP was unnecessarily excited by an American IRI poll, in which, according to the data that reached me, the number of those who refused the survey was extremely large. Experts note that a certain part of people usually refuse to participate in this or that survey. In the case of the latest IRI Armenia survey, that number is almost twice as high (the vast majority of callers (10/7) refused to speak at all).

This proves that people live in an atmosphere of fear, disappointment and uncertainty. That people no longer expect anything and have no faith. This indicates that a large part of people is afraid, avoids or considers it pointless to even give their opinion to public opinion polls.

And in this case, who has a guarantee that the government, built on falsehoods and fed on lies, will tolerate the contents of the ballot box after handing over the homeland? Who is the naïve oppositionist who, after eight years of disasters, repression, political prisoners and a divisive atmosphere of hatred, is ready to believe in electoral victory?

It turned out that the way to win the elections goes through the process of expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister with a legal and united struggle.

If CP does not have the post of prime minister after 10 days, it will gather 1.7% of votes in the elections. The picture is almost the same in post-Soviet and Eastern European countries. For us, it’s more terrible.”

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Facebook post of Davit Ananyan, co-founder of the “Wings of Unity” political initiative

OBSERVATION 2: Foreign trade: decline in exports and deepening dependence on imports (when the real state of the economy is revealed in the external balance)

The real competitiveness of the economy is best seen not in domestic statistical growth indicators, but in the foreign trade balance.

If the economy strengthens, exports increase, markets diversify and import dependence decreases.

2026 January’s data show the opposite picture.

Thus, the external sector reveals the reality that is often not seen in official statements about economic activity.

 A drop in exports at the very beginning of the year

2026 In January, Armenia’s export amounted to 463.9 million dollars, which is 13.5% less than in 2025. the same month.

At the same time, the import amounted to 811.8 million dollars. As a result, the foreign trade turnover amounted to 1.28 billion dollars, which is 12% less than the same month last year.

This means that the very first month of the year for Armenia’s foreign trade begins with a weakening trend of exports.

 Trade balance: real “accounting” of the economy

Foreign trade balance in 2026 in January it was -347.9 million dollars. In other words, Armenia’s economy buys from foreign markets almost twice as much as it sells.

Such a structure is characteristic of economies where domestic production is weak, exports are limited, and consumption is heavily dependent on imports.

 Export Structural Vulnerability

Export data shows another important problem: the structural volatility of exports.
2026 in January, the export of precious metals and stones decreased by about 45%, ready-made food products by about 16%, and the export of devices and equipment by about 69%.

This shows that Armenia’s exports continue to be:

 with a limited product structure,

 with low participation of high-tech production, and

 depending on several product groups.

Such a structure makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in foreign markets.

 Geographic structure: limitation of markets

The geographical structure of foreign trade also shows a system of dependencies.

In particular, in 2026 The structure of foreign trade in January was as follows. CIS countries – 29.1%, EU countries – 14%, other countries – 56.9% in foreign trade turnover.

At the same time, the trade turnover with Russia decreased by about 38%.

These data show that Armenia’s foreign trade remains concentrated and based on limited markets.

 “External Audit” of Economic Growth

Foreign trade acts as a reality check mechanism for the economy. If the economy is actually strengthening, exports should increase, import dependence should decrease, and the external balance should stabilize.

But in 2026 January data show the opposite trend.

 exports decline
 the trade deficit remains large,
 the economy continues to depend on imports.

 Conclusion

The figures of foreign trade again show the structural problem of Armenia’s economy, in particular, the official talk about economic activity does not translate into real expansion of exports.

Armenia’s economy continues to be an import-dependent consumer economy, not an export-based production economy.

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“If we are talking about serious politics or serious state management, then what the RA authorities are doing today does not correspond to the current reality in any way. We are dealing with a frivolous government, which has already confirmed that it does not conduct its own policy,” he said of 168.am said in a conversation with Chairman of the Democratic Party of Armenia Aram Sargsyanspeaking about the ongoing military operations in neighboring Iran and the internal party campaign by the Armenian authorities.

According to him, no matter how much Nikol Pashinyan talks about sovereignty today and declares that we have just become a state, it does not change anything, he does not rule the country by himself.

“If they talk every day that we are becoming a new state, we should understand exactly the opposite, because the state was formed in 1991, that is, it was continuous, we don’t need to drum up all this now. It is better, let him talk about how to preserve and develop all this.

If we consider this war against Iran, it is still hidden. When the US president came to power, he announced that he had stopped 8 wars, avoided the Third World War, and deserved to be awarded the “Nobel Peace” prize. But less than half a year later, he was transformed,” added Aram Sargsyan.

According to Aram Sargsyan, a very big campaign is underway here, and when Trump kidnapped Venezuelan President Maduro and took Venezuela’s oil, it should have been understood then that he was preparing some new adventure. With all that, Trump insured himself so that he would always have oil in tense situations. These processes were followed by the attack against Iran.

“Iran-US negotiations were going on, and when the United States was preparing for war under the cover of those negotiations, this means that it was preparing for war from the very first day.

Under these conditions, the so-called RA government has started praising itself, going around the villages to convince people that it is completely nonsense that they have brought peace. In this situation, to convince people that this is how it will be today, it will be like this tomorrow, of course, is a big crime, because we cannot say how this aggression against Iran will end. Also, we should not forget that Turkey and Azerbaijan are preparing for continuous processes with Israel in the context of all this, which can be expressed by the implementation of this so-called TRIPP, the formation of “Great Turan” and so on. And the absurdity is that the head of the country appears in all this and says: come and elect me, if you don’t, there will be a war.

Nikol Pashinyan is trying to deceive people on this primitive factor,” emphasized our interlocutor.

According to Aram Sargsyan, in recent years society has been brought to such a level that there is a layer that does not want to hear anything about anything. Therefore, the primitive factor used by Nikol Pashinyan will work for these people. Especially if they take into account the fact that Nikol Pashinyan suddenly decided to increase his pension by 10 thousand drams on the eve of the elections.

“I want to ask Nikol Pashinyan a question, 3 months ago he said that he could not raise his pension, where did he get that money when it was not provided for in the budget?” This means that the 100 million he took will provide 10 thousand drams. If God forbid, he was re-elected, those 10,000 will not work, in the best case it will be 3-4 months. If Nikol Pashinyan is there, there will be both war and Armenia will not exist, and if he is not in power, then the nation will unite, unite its potential and be able to develop in such a way that no enemy will risk attacking Armenia,” Aram Sargsyan emphasized.

Let’s remind that since February 28, the United States, together with Israel, attacked Iran, the military operations in Iran continue.

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The fact that during the days of the US-Israeli military operation against Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan, by and large, took the same position, does not mean that there were no “clashes” and messages during this period.

In particular, Azerbaijani minval.azaddressed the criticisms of Turkey’s political and public spheres in its editorial regarding Azerbaijan-Israel strategic relations, and drew attention to a remarkable episode.

“The supply of Israeli weapons to Azerbaijan began before the 44-day Patriotic War and continued after that: drones, missile systems and air defense systems, and this is not a complete list. Naturally, any country has the right to independently determine the format of its relations with anyone.

But here is what is interesting. USA:the Israel has decided supply 27.000 aerial bomb, which to be produced is don’t in the company, whose the owner turkish is.

Let’s get down to the details. According to our information: USA:–the preparing is Israel with 660 million dollar weapon–of ammunition of supply deal to seal, which her in include: is also 27.000 aerial bomb and: appropriate equipment. This ammunition produced is In Texas active don’t in the factory, which belong to is Repkon turkish defensive concern daughter to the enterprise (Repkon USA)։

In theory, the bombs are supplied by a private company. However, in practice, the export of arms is state-owned control is very tight and strict, even in co-productions. Especially when it is not about sporting or hunting rifles, but about modern and effective aviation bombs.

We are far from making any claims against this company or its owners, but just in case Why do those circles that so harshly criticize Azerbaijan for its cooperation with Israel not interpret this deal in any way? In fact, a joint venture that manufactures weapons with the United States has decided to transfer them to Israel. Why is this not being discussed, instead Baku is being criticized? How to explain this “tunnel vision” or double standards? wrote the Azerbaijani mass media.

Would such an editorial have been published without the “dabro” of the Baku authorities?

And let’s continue the topic. One of the Israeli media elaborated details of the transaction and reported that the 12,000 units of the bomb are BLU-110A/B kind of about 450 kg in weight, has a high ability to destroy concrete and reinforced targets, it can be used with high-precision navigation equipment (JDAM or Paveway). In addition, BLU-110A/B bombs are compatible with F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighters, etc.

Latest information confirmed also the US State Department, stating that the proposed package would allow Israel to acquire 12,000 BLU-110A/B general-purpose bomb bodies, and that 151.8 million dollars value transaction also includes additional logistical support to Israel.

Let’s remind that the Azerbaijani media mentioned about 27,000 aerial bombs and mentioned the price of the deal at 660 million dollars. It is not excluded that, as various sources indicate, the USA will supply a part of aerial bombs to Israel from its own arsenal.

And why is the Azerbaijani mass media not a little “honest”?

The US supply of aerial bombs produced by a subsidiary of the Turkish company Repkon to Israel. caused resentment and disputes also in Turkey, in political and social circles.

And the management of the Repkon company even had to justify that they did not participate in the decision related to the above transaction, noting that in recent years, Turkish defense companies have expanded their international presence through subsidiaries and joint ventures in countries such as the USA, Great Britain, Italy, Romania, etc., and these enterprises were established under local legislation.

Therefore, according to the Turkish company Repkon, With the globalization of defense production networks, the boundaries between national companies and national political positions are becoming increasingly blurred.

We mention all this to show the clashes between Baku and Ankara, if there is a topic of “sticking” to anyone’s national interest, and especially in the context of Israel-Baku relations, the same Baku is ready to defend its strategic interests with Israel in any way, including from Turkey.

And the Turkish company can very calmly explain the mediated supply of ammunition to Israel: “ничего личного, это просто бизнес”.

Let’s draw attention to one more episode in the context of Baku-Ankara messages. According to the Azerbaijani side, during the days of drone strikes from Iran in the direction of Nakhichevan, Azerbaijani non-governmental or non-governmental organizations immediately start a flash mob in the social network domain: “Become my voice”, in the context of which a student studying in one of the schools of Nakhichevan appealed to the Tabriz and Zenjan settlements of Iran.

Why, because they are Azerbaijanis? Couldn’t such an emotional “project” cause international conflicts inside Iran, it was not ruled out. And days later, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made a special emphasis in one of his speeches.

«We against we are in Iran civilian war to unleash all kind of to the scenarios. This most dangerous from scripts is, and: we warns we are both To the West, both To the east, to everyone. Similar the script in Iran no only civilian innocent population will take the most big sufferings, also can is lead to millions people to deportation and: to force them as refugees shelter search for neighbor countries and: of it from the borders out.”

Of course, Baku would not be able to reach a civil war at least with the above exciting steps, but if they were to continue and turn into more decisive “projects”, local clashes might occur. We do not forget that Israel, a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, wants to achieve the overthrow of the regime in Iran, and we can somehow extend Fidan’s warning to Baku as well.

By the way, Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan was himself to write that against the background of the attack on Iran, a unique anti-Azerbaijani wave has started in Turkey, and representatives of many public groups in Turkey have been targeting Azerbaijan and, in particular, President Aliyev, as “a friend and ally of Israel”.

It should be noted that later in the context of the US-Israel attack against Iran, Turkish President Erdogan stated that no one should miscalculate or fall into the Zionist trap of trying to turn brother against brother. Of course, here the head of Turkey meant Iran, but taking into account the above facts, we can see an indirect message to Baku here as well.

So there are also “sharp corners” in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. And Baku has debts to repay both Israel and Turkey in the context of the 44-day war in Artsakh in 2020, if we put Pakistan’s aid aside.

On one occasion we wrote that at that time Pakistan acted on its relations with Turkey and only after the war established strategic relations with Baku.

On the other hand, we do not forget that the leading figures and important figures of Turkey have stated more than once that the victory of Azerbaijan in the 44-day war belongs to the Turkic world, these are not exactly the same words as the expectations of the Turkic world related to the “Zangezur Corridor” or “Trump Road” project also suggest.

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While the USA and Israel continue the unprovoked war against Iran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has telephone conversations with the leaders of neighboring countries.

According to “Anadolu”, Pezeshkian had a telephone conversation with Turkish President Erdogan, they discussed the latest regional developments, including the shooting down of an Iranian ballistic missile in Turkish airspace.

Erdogan, according to the report, told Pezeshkian that the violation of Turkish airspace “cannot be justified for any reason” and that “Turkey will continue to take all necessary measures against it.” According to the Turkish side, the telephone conversation took place at the request of Pezeshkian after the Ministry of National Defense of Turkey announced that a ballistic missile launched from Iran, which had entered Turkish airspace, was shot down by NATO air and missile defense systems located in the Mediterranean Sea.

On March 4, the Ministry of Defense of Turkey announced that it had shot down a ballistic missile launched from Iran. Erdogan said that Turkey is “negatively affected” by the conflicts in which he is not a party. The Turkish president also emphasized that Ankara does not approve of “illegal interventions” against Iran and Iran’s targeting of countries in the region, adding that targeting brotherly countries “is not in anyone’s interest” and “these actions must be stopped.”

Erdogan emphasized the need to reopen the door of diplomacy and said that Turkey is actively working to promote diplomatic involvement in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also had a conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister.

The day before yesterday, Pezeshkian had a conversation with the leader of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, clarifying that Iran has nothing to do with the attack of Iranian ATS in Nakhichevan. Parallel to all this, Iran maintains a tough rhetoric.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that the discussion of negotiations with the United States is unlikely under the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei. Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, also responded to the threat of US President Donald Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Iranian people are not afraid of your empty threats, because those more powerful than you could not eliminate them… So, be careful so that you are not the ones who disappear,” Larijani wrote on the X social network.

Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin 168.amtold that Tehran is clearly trying to show that despite the military pressure and the difficult situation, it is ready to maintain the stability of relations with its neighbors and prevent the opening of new fronts, the attempts of which are noted.

According to him, the regional developments show that the South Caucasus is gradually getting involved in the field of influence of the big conflict going on in the Middle East.

“It is also noticeable that Turkey and Azerbaijan, trying to save face after the incidents, are still trying to maintain balance. on the one hand, not to aggravate relations with Iran, on the other hand, not to disrupt their ties with the Western bloc and Israel. Under these conditions, Iran, feeling the military-political pressure, is trying to reduce the tension with its immediate neighbors so that the conflict does not spread to the northern borders,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

According to him, these developments have a direct impact on Armenia as well. “On the one hand, for Iran, the border with Armenia remains an important strategic direction, which can increase the importance of Yerevan for Tehran. On the other hand, if the conflict between Iran and the Western bloc deepens, the South Caucasus may come under strong geopolitical pressure, where Turkey and Azerbaijan will also play an active role. In those conditions, naturally, Armenia’s political opportunities will become even more limited,” he expressed such a view.

As for the course of the war, the analyst believes that every subsequent war changes the rules of warfare.

According to Alexander Khramchikhin, unfortunately, currently the rules of waging war do not recognize moral taboos, which means that the countries that are waging such a war can no longer blame others for waging war.

“And the role of the US in this matter became significant with its actions against Iran. We already see how the USA behaves, not only military and political objects are being targeted in Iran, but also civilian objects, no matter what the American officials say,” he said. Despite Western assessments, in his opinion, Iran continues to resist effectively. “To put it mildly, the statements about the great successes of the USA on the battlefield do not correspond to reality. The US president talks about ending the war soon, but in reality, after this attack, such a situation has arisen that Iran’s position has hardened, there is no room left for negotiations, and it will be difficult for the US to leave the Iranian front without really great successes. A rather complicated and desperate situation has been created, so I think the situation will continue, but maybe at a certain point it will stop like in the case of the 12-day war,” he said.

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On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large-scale operation against Iran, which has not reached its end. In such cases, it is sometimes worth looking back at some episodes, in this case, what events preceded the attack on Iran, which is related to Azerbaijan, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, etc.

And so.

Նախ՝ On October 22, 2025 Special Forces of the Azerbaijani Army and Special Operations Command of the Presidential Guard of the United Arab Emirates in Baku “Unwavering Partnership-2025” were military exercises spent Moreover, they were in an environment consistent with real combat conditions, during which armored vehicles, army aviation, and unmanned aerial vehicles were used. Moreover, the units performed various combat tasks: fire preparation, landing, sniper shooting, destruction of the enemy’s object, “clearing” the settlement from the enemy.

By the way, considering the closing ceremony of the military exercise the staff it can be assumed that the unit of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Azerbaijan (“Yarasa”) also took part in this military exercise.

It should be noted that there are reports in Azerbaijani sources that during the 44-day military operations, the personnel of “Yarasa” acted in the rear of the Armenian army and took part in the capture of settlements, particularly in the Kubatli (Orotan) area, so they participated for the first time in the Azerbaijani military parade on December 10, 2020.

Already On February 3, 2026 Azerbaijan President Aliyev and UAE President Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahya in Abu Dhabi were followed “Peace Shield-2026” joint operational-tactical exercises of the armed forces of the two countries.

And during the military exercises, which, by the way, were held in residential conditions or areas, in mountainous terrain and in the marine environment, the units performed the following tasks: detection and neutralization of illegal armed groups, restoration of control over the captured ship, neutralization of terrorist elements and release of hostages, evacuation of the wounded, prevention of disturbances and sabotage threatening public safety in the populated area, as well as implementation of anti-incendiary measures.

It was stated that the purpose of this military measure is to contribute to the establishment of stable peace.

And before that, Aliyev and Nahya discussed issues related to cooperation in the economic and defense spheres. In other words, Baku tried military-technical with the UAE cooperation to give a new quality, especially when the UAE is perceived as a sufficiently developed technological sector in the field of defense and military industry, Azerbaijan is also trying to develop its own military industrial potential.

At the same time, with the participation of the presidents of Azerbaijan and UAE was signed a document related to the sale of a certain part of the non-controlling stake in the “Southern Gas Corridor” by the Ministry of Economy of Azerbaijan to XRG, the investment division of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is related to Azerbaijan. By the way, earlier reported that days before the US-Israeli attack against Iran, instructions were given to the air defense forces of Azerbaijan. What about Turkey?

On February 3 President Erdoğan went to Saudi Arabia, in which a number of arrangements had been made.

In particular, the Turkish side emphasized the leading role of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in strengthening the reliability and stability of the global oil markets. The parties then agreed to strengthen cooperation in the supply of oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals. In addition to this, the parties also reached agreements of strategic significance in the energy sector.

And? on February 14 Turkish media had reported that Turkish President Erdogan February 17-18 will visit the UAE and Ethiopia.

later on February 16th, info It was reported that Erdoğan’s visit to the UAE was canceled due to the health problems of the President of the UAE, Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and instead, the communication took place over the phone.

On February 19 CBS News, citing its sources, had reported, that the USA intends to strike Iran on February 21, Israel was also preparing for this date.  Axioseven wrote that the military operation will be large-scale. But the attack against Iran started a few days after the specified date, which was not only determined by negotiations, but also by updated intelligence.

By the way, back in February, Turkey and Qatar were trying to prevent The attacks on Iran considered possible at that time, which did not succeed.

And today, when the Iran-US-Israel military conflict is at a fever pitch, the leadership of Turkey, particularly the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, declares that the attacks on Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain endanger the lives of innocent citizens and increase the probability of the spread of war.

In other words, according to him, Iran’s attacks against a third country are very wrong, because such actions to some extent also contribute to Israel’s expansionism, which is currently unfolding in this region. And it’s no wonder that Iran regularly reports that US bases and Israeli military facilities are their targets. Of course there are “diversions”, but the main goal is to target the US and Israel and those who help them. So, Turkey should be able to “hold the hand” of the USA, which considers Israel’s interests as a priority, which conflicts with Turkish interests.

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