Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that “If peppers are spoiling, I’ll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I’ll pay for them, too” was an emotionally-charged outburst that was tied to the restrictions imposed by Russia on a number of Armenian agricultural exports in May. With about three months since these sanctions were levied, we have some hard data to assess how effective they have been or, taking Yerevan’s point of view, how successful Armenia has been in diverting agricultural trade to other destinations.
From shock to adaptation
The key number I look is what I call the replacement ratio, i.e., the increase in exports to non-Russian destinations divided by the volume of lost exports to Russia. On that measure, Armenia replaced only 15% of lost Russian fresh-produce volume in June, the first full month of disruption. However, July saw a meaningful improvement to 48.5% and provisional August data points to a something in the 37-47% range.
The improvement is definitely not trivial. It shows that agricultural exporters were able to react reasonably quickly, find alternative export destinations and redirect at least part of their produce. It is also true, however, that a significant portion of the former Russian business remains unreplaced. If we take June and July together, Russia-bound shipments in the critical fresh-produce basket fell by 56,282 tonnes (Table 1). Additional shipments to other markets rose by 17,987 tonnes. In other words, only 32% of the Russian loss was replaced, leaving roughly 38,300 tonnes — or 68% of the lost Russian volume — unfilled.
The maths behind that calculation is important to catch. Simply looking at total non-Russia exports would exaggerate the adjustment because some of those exports existed before the onset of the export shock. What matters is the incremental volume that was gained after the imposition of restrictions.
The July rebound was for real as fresh-produce exports rose to 17,183 tonnes from 8,070 tonnes in June. More importantly, the total export shortfall versus the same month of 2025 narrowed sharply, while additional non-Russia exports climbed to about 13,800 tonnes. Non-Russia exports in July were roughly five times larger than the corresponding period of last year.
Table 1: About 32% of lost fresh produce exports to Russia were replaced over June-July
The apricot problem
But the aggregate numbers also conceal exceptional concentration.
Peaches, nectarines and sweet cherries performed exceptionally well. In July, additional exports to non-Russian destinations were actually larger than the volumes lost to Russia, producing replacement ratios above 100%. Total shipments of those products were also around 30% above their July 2025 levels.
Apricots told the opposite story — and it dominated the overall result
Apricot exports dropped from 42,902 tonnes in June-July 2025 to 10,376 tonnes during the same of period of 2026. That 32,527-tonne decline accounted for a hefty 85% of the net fresh-produce shortfall. Tomatoes and plums/cherry plums added most of the remaining weakness.
There could be an important catch here as the apricot collapse may not be entirely about Russia. Armenia’s economy minister pointed to frost, hail and heavy rain as reasons for a weaker harvest. A useful sensitivity test adds some weight to that argument: excluding apricots raises the June-July replacement ratio from 32% to 70%, and July’s ratio to 76%.
But that does not make the Russian restrictions irrelevant. Rather, two shocks appear to be overlapping: a market-access shock and a supply shock. It is, however, hard to disentangle the two effects without an independent harvest data.
Diversification — but where?
The geography of new export destinations is equally revealing for interpreting the results. Armenia is diversifying, but mostly within its broader (CIS) region, rather than making a dramatic leap into high-income Western markets.
Georgia and Uzbekistan together accounted for 66.5% of the incremental non-Russia gain in June-July (Table 2). Add Ukraine and the share rises to 82.4%. Uzbekistan was the largest destination by 2026 fresh-produce volume in the data, with Georgia generating the largest incremental increase.
The EU, by contrast, accounted for only 4.1% of the incremental gain.
That could potentially change. The EU has already moved to provide temporary trade preferences for Armenian products following Russia’s 2026 restrictions, potentially improving access to the European market.
But for now, Armenia’s export adaptation is overwhelmingly a regional story, not yet a European one.
There are also sectors where adaptation has been far less robust. Flowers, for example, look superficially stable in absolute shipments as the July’s replacement ratio was a mere 8.1%. Fish is even more concerning: exports fell from 823 tonnes in July 2025 to just 64 tonnes in July 2026, with additional non-Russia shipments replacing a paltry 6.1% of the Russian shortfall. A 60-tonne shipment of fish and products to the UAE announced in early September is encouraging, but still far too small and recent to talk about a durable alternative market.
Table 2: Uzbekistan, Georgia and Ukraine account for 82.4% of all incremental gain in fresh-produce exports
The investor takeaway: volume is not revenue
The central message may be one of partial adaptation without full diversification. The data weaken a claim that Armenian exporters cannot find alternative export destinations. Equally, they fail to support a claim that the Russian market has already been replaced or that the Russia-related trade risk can be removed from consideration.
Exporters have shown decent flexibility, and the improvement from June to July has been reasonably large. August, while incomplete, does not suggest that this adaptation suddenly reversed.
But there is an important catch: volume is not revenue. Exporters may be selling into new markets at different prices and with higher freight, spoilage, financing and working-capital costs. Government compensation may also affect the economics. A tonne redirected to Georgia, Uzbekistan or the UAE is not necessarily economically equivalent to a tonne previously sold in Russia. That makes it dangerous to translate the 32% volume replacement ratio mechanically into an equivalent recovery in export earnings.
This is precisely why the Russian market cannot yet be treated as “replaced” in any meaningful sense.
The most defensible conclusion then is somewhere in between the two extremes. Armenia has certainly demonstrated better capacity to re-route exports than the initial shock suggested. On the other hand, the adjustment is not yet fully realised, since it is rather localised in few products and very dependent on regional markets.
The Russia-related trade risks may have become a little less for now, but to say that they no longer exist at all would certainly be too early. The next test that lies ahead could perhaps be the most crucial one – whether the new trade routes of trade will stand the test of time or not.
Ivan Tchakarov is partner for the Caucasus and Central Asia at GlobalSource Partners.
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Beirut: What Was Discussed in the Call Between President Aoun and His Armenian
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun received a phone call from Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan, during which they discussed regional developments and bilateral relations.
President Joseph Aoun received a telephone call from the President of the Republic of Armenia, Vahagn Khachaturyan, and they reviewed the current situation in Lebanon and the region.
The two presidents discussed bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to develop them in all fields.
The Armenian president extended an invitation to President Aoun to visit Armenia to discuss issues of mutual interest. President Aoun thanked him for his invitation, noting that the date would be determined through diplomatic channels.
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Iran, Armenia stress removing border obstacles, increasing transit capacity
Iran, Armenia stress removing border obstacles, increasing transit capacity
TEHRAN- A joint meeting was held between Iran’s Deputy Minister of Transport and Urban Development and Head of the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, and a delegation from the Republic of Armenia, with the presence of Armenia’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Territorial Management, at the Nordooz border terminal.
According to IRNA, citing the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, in line with expanding trade and logistical relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Armenia and making maximum use of the two countries’ transport, transit, and infrastructure capacities, a joint meeting was held between Reza Akbari, Deputy Minister of Transport and Urban Development and Head of the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, and a delegation from the Republic of Armenia, with the presence of Armenia’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Territorial Management, at the Nordooz border terminal.
The meeting focused on developing transport and transit cooperation, strengthening the two countries’ role in regional transit routes, and identifying and removing existing obstacles. During the meeting, increasing border exchange capacity, improving the level of services at official crossings, facilitating the movement of commercial fleets, and strengthening logistical infrastructure and border hinterlands were reviewed and discussed.
In continuation of their cooperation, the two sides will pursue the removal of existing obstacles, reducing the time required for border and customs procedures, improving the efficiency of border terminals, and increasing regional transit capacity.
It is worth noting that the Nordooz border terminal, as one of the important communication crossings between Iran and Armenia, has considerable capacity for developing trade exchanges and regional transit.
In late September, the Director General of the Central Asia, Caucasus and Russia Office of the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran announced a 7.5% increase in Iran’s exports to Armenia during the seven months of 2026, putting the value of goods exported from Iran to Armenia in that period at $385 million.
According to IRNA, citing the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran, Mehdi Babaei said, referring to the joint Iranian-Armenian border and customs meeting held on September 12, in Jolfa, that at the meeting the two sides stressed the development of customs cooperation and the facilitation of trade between the two countries.
He described one of the most important agreements of the meeting as the signing of a customs green corridor memorandum of understanding between Iran and Armenia, and said: “The necessary measures for the electronic exchange of customs documents and data, as well as identifying and introducing authorized operators, will be pursued more rapidly.”
Babaei, emphasizing that the implementation of these measures can provide the basis for facilitating and accelerating customs and transit processes at the two countries’ border, added: “Based on the agreements reached, if the desired requirements are met, the truck reception capacity at the Norduz border can increase to 300 trucks per day.”
The Director General of the Central Asia, Caucasus and Russia Office of the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran considered the development of customs infrastructure, electronic exchange of information, and increased truck traffic capacity at the Norduz border as paving the way for trade facilitation and strengthening Iran-Armenia economic and transit relations.
The joint Iranian-Armenian border and customs meeting was held with the presence of the heads and directors of the customs administrations of the two countries, the Armenian ambassador in Tehran, the embassy’s commercial attaché, and representatives of relevant bodies of both countries.
EF/MA
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Azerbaijani soldier who entered Armenia fired at local residents
Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer visiting Armenia
FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer is currently in Armenia to tour the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan.
The memorial honors the 1.5 million Armenians killed in the ethnic attack beginning in 1915.
Mayor Dyer says being in Armenia has given him the opportunity to better understand the history, culture and traditions that are so important to so many Fresnans, as more than 50,000 Armenians call Fresno home.
The mayor has been giving updates on his trip through social media.
He acknowledged many similarities between Fresno and Armenia, including deep agricultural roots, and recognizing the importance of diversity.
Fresno also has a “sister city” in Armenia.
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Recreating Armenia’s Natural Monument Made up of Basalt Columns in 3D
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Armenpress: South Korea’s Lee urges Pyongyang to restore dialogue
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday called on North Korea to help restore trust and resume dialogue, a day after Seoul and Pyongyang traded barbs over a landmine incident that South Korea’s military and the UN Command said amounted to an armistice violation, Reuters reported.
“I hope that the North joins us now on the path of restoring trust and resuming dialogue, following a long interruption,” Lee said in an address marking the country’s Armed Forces Day, adding that his administration would “consistently pursue practical measures to reduce military tensions between the two Koreas.”
The comments came after Seoul’s military and the UN Command said North Korea violated the Korean War armistice following a landmine blast last week that wounded three South Korean soldiers in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, rejected the findings in a statement on Wednesday, accused Seoul of fabricating the results and warned of retaliation.
Lee reaffirmed his goal of securing the transfer of wartime operational control from the United States to South Korea, calling it part of a long-standing push for self-reliant national defense.
In a wide-ranging defense reform agenda, Lee also said in his speech that South Korea would build nuclear-powered submarines by the mid-2030s and upgrade missile defense capabilities, including AI-based command-and-control systems and high-energy laser interceptors.
He said the modernization drive would also involve expanding AI capabilities, restructuring the military for future warfare and strengthening the country’s three-axis defense system for detecting and intercepting missile threats.
Lee’s government has sought to reopen dialogue with North Korea, but Pyongyang has largely rejected Seoul’s overtures while pressing ahead with border fortification work along the DMZ.
Published by Armenpress, original at
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Putin bans taking more than one million rubles in cash from Russia to Belarus,
The new rules
Russian President Vladimir Putin has banned Russians and foreigners from taking cash exceeding 1 million rubles to other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries — Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan — as well as Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The restriction took effect on September 29.
Previously, individuals traveling to EAEU countries could take the equivalent of $100,000 at the central bank’s exchange rate on the day they crossed the border. People can now take roughly one-eighth to one-ninth as much cash out of the country.
For companies and sole proprietors, the presidential decree merely codified an existing ban on taking any cash out of the country but expanded the list of exceptions.
Individuals face confiscation of any cash above the one-million-ruble limit, while companies and sole proprietors face confiscation of the entire sum. Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Federal Security Service (FSB), and Federal Customs Service will be responsible for enforcing the decree. The government must approve procedures for recording cash taken abroad, with the agreement of Russia’s central bank.
Who needs to take that much money to these countries anyway?
Lots of people. For example, people who divide their time between two countries.
- Millions of people from other EAEU countries, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan work in Russia, and they often need to take their earnings home.
- Many Russians moved to Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. They regularly need to take cash out of Russia, for example, after selling real estate or other major assets.
- As cross-border transactions became more difficult, Russian business owners also began moving cash abroad under the guise of personal travel to obtain foreign currency for routine payments and expenses or simply to buy goods in neighboring countries.
Experts interviewed by Russian business publications believe the restrictions were tightened mainly to crack down on these semi-legal business schemes. Finance Ministry officials and central bank staff have said the same. The authorities are using the restrictions to try to bring Russia’s economy “out of the shadows.”
The Bell reported that the new restrictions will hit hardest those who paid business partners in cash in the affected countries: small-scale border traders and networks of currency exchangers and intermediaries. The restrictions will also hurt migrants whose off-the-books income cannot be documented with a bank statement.
So what should I do now if I need to take money to one of the countries covered by the decree?
We strongly advise against exceeding the limit. Remember the penalties set out in the presidential decree — you run a high risk of simply losing some or even all of your cash.
For personal use when traveling to the seven countries covered by the decree, it’s best to carry less than one million rubles in cash and transfer the rest electronically. Even Russian Mir cards still work in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, though you may have to look around for an ATM that accepts them.
Several options remain available for transferring money from Russia abroad, including to EAEU countries, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. In summer 2026, the human rights organization Kovcheg recommended the following:
- The IDPay app: Transfers from Russian cards to Armenian cards and vice versa; direct bank transfers to Armenia are also available
- Unistream: A money-transfer system still available in nearly 10 countries
- The Avosend service
- Transfers through Russian Post
- Russian banking apps, such as Sber’s and T-Bank’s
- Cryptocurrencies
Caution: Using some of these channels in jurisdictions outside the countries listed above may be treated as sanctions evasion. Be careful and check thoroughly to make sure you aren’t breaking local laws.
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‘We will decide in the coming months’: Pashinyan on choosing model for Armenia
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‘Copper is to us what oil is to other countries’ – expert on Armenia’s minera
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