Ankara hopes to open its border with Armenia and create a new trade route between Europe and Asia, writes the Financial Times

Turkey has stepped up the promotion of the so-called Middle Corridor as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, hoping to open its border with Armenia and create a new trade route between Europe and Asia, writes the Financial Times.

This refers to the TRIPP project (Trump’s Path to International Peace and Prosperity), supported by the US president as part of the peace initiatives between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkish authorities have already begun preparations to reopen the Alikan border crossing, closed 32 years ago, the article says.

„We do not know when the border will open; the date is constantly changing. “But everyone thinks it will happen soon,” a Turkish border guard told the publication.

Ankara hopes to establish itself as a key transit hub amid risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously said that Turkey is becoming an “island of stability” and is seen as a secure route for energy supplies.

The Middle Corridor envisions a land link between China and Europe via the Caucasus and Turkey. According to former Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, delivery along this route could take 12-15 days, compared to around 40 days by sea. The supply potential is expected to increase from 5 million to 20 million tons per year.

The EU calls Turkey a “critical partner“, and the expansion of the corridor “a game-changer“.

However, the project faces a number of risks: complex logistics across the Caspian Sea, differences in rail infrastructure and political factors. The route passes close to Iran and Russia.

Experts note that the implementation of TRIPP depends on political support and investment from the United States and in the short term it is unlikely to replace sea routes or the northern corridor through Russia.

Last fall, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced the imminent completion of the Zangezur transport corridor, known as the “Trump Road“, in the country. He noted that the railway, with a capacity of 15 million tons of cargo per year, will become a key link in the Middle Corridor – the Trans-Caspian international route.

The Zangezur Corridor is a planned transport route that will connect the mainland of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the Syunik province in southern Armenia. It will be approximately 40 kilometers long. The project is planned to include the construction of a highway and a railway.

The project was dubbed the “Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity” after the signing of a peace declaration by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting with Donald Trump.

The Zangezur Transport Corridor, which is currently under construction, has the potential to have a significant impact on the global economy. According to World Bank estimates, its opening could increase annual global trade by $50-100 billion by 2027.

This material is part of a partnership with OC Media. You can read the original English version here.

In the first quarter of 2026, Azerbaijan exported $5.8 million worth of products to Armenia, while imports from Armenia totaled just $960. Meanwhile, the Armenian side emphasized that Armenia has not yet carried out any exports to Azerbaijan, and media outlets suggested that this figure could have resulted from gifts brought to Azerbaijan by representatives of Armenian civil society.

The Armenian publication CivilNet, citing the State Revenue Committee of Armenia, reported that the country’s customs authorities recorded no instances of export to Azerbaijan. The Ministry of Economy of Armenia provided similar information to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

At the same time, RFE/RL suggested that the $960 sum could have been composed of gifts presented by Armenian experts and civil society representatives to their Azerbaijani colleagues during visits to Azerbaijan. Specifically, Boris Navasardyan, honorary president of the Yerevan Press Club and a participant in such meetings, noted that Armenian delegations often gave sweets and tea to Azerbaijanis.

Representatives of Armenian and Azerbaijani civil society have made mutual visits in recent months as the two countries move toward signing a peace agreement.

The most recent such visit took place in early April: an Armenian delegation arrived in Azerbaijan via a demarcated land section of the border in the northern part of the Tavush province, heading to the Gazakh district.

The Azerbaijani state news agency Azertac reported that Azerbaijan’s exports to Armenia accounted for 0.11% of the country’s total export volume for the first three months of 2026.

Separately, the pro-government Azerbaijani outlet APA noted that oil products made up the bulk of trade between the two countries, though it did not specify which goods Azerbaijan imported from Armenia for the $960 amount.

Trade between the two countries began only late last year following the initialing of a peace treaty in Washington in August, which could potentially end the long-standing conflict.

In January, Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged lists of potential goods for trade.

Later, Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan told Armenian media that Yerevan is negotiating with Baku on the export of aluminum foil, raw materials for its production, ferromolybdenum, livestock, raw materials for brandy production, tobacco, textiles, roses, and other greenhouse products.

Last year, Azerbaijan exported $788,800 worth of goods to Armenia. There were no exports from Armenia to Azerbaijan.

The European Union breathed a sigh of relief last week when Hungary voted out Prime Minister Viktor Orban in favour of Peter Magyar. 

Like Moldova’s election last year, the vote was seen as an ideological battleground between the Kremlin and Brussels. 

Orban, a long-standing ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be replaced by Magyar, who said he wants to repair ties with the EU. “Hungary has chosen Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after the results were announced.

Now the bloc’s attention is shifting further east towards another former Soviet Union country seen to be making a similar choice: Armenia.  

But this could have long-lasting consequences for the Armenian people, according to some observers. 

A step towards Europe 

The June 7 parliamentary elections in Armenia matter for Europe, as public opinion in the country – long aligned with Russia – is now turning toward Brussels.

While campaigning officially begins 30 days before the election, candidates have already hit the trail. 

The current front-runner in the polls is Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the head of the political party Civil Contract. He came to power in 2018 after being elected in the wake of the Velvet Revolution, a series of anti-government protests. He is seeking reelection on a pro-European campaign.

One of his strongest opponents is Samvel Karapetyan, the Russian-Armenian billionaire who leads the Strong Armenia party. In 2025, he was arrested with 13 others on suspicion of attempting to destabilise the government.

But there are also a handful of other pro-European candidates, said Eric Hacopian, a political analyst at CivilNet, who points to such figures as Hayk Marutyan, the former mayor of Yerevan.

“This is a very interesting election because … you see the creation of a non-old regime, pro-Western opposition,” Hacopian said. 

“And if they can actually make a breakthrough and enter the parliament, it will change our political system in a way that it hasn’t been changed since the 2018 revolution.” 

Armenia’s changing relationship with Russia 

Yerevan’s ties with Moscow have weakened since 2023, when nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh following Azerbaijan’s takeover of the region.

Yerevan accused Russian peacekeepers who were deployed to the enclave, previously controlled by Armenians, of failing to stop Baku’s military campaign.    

Armenia has since suspended its membership of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which, like NATO, has a clause on mutual protection for its members. 

“That scar is going to haunt this region for decades to come, no matter how much they try to bury it,” Hacopian said, referring to the nationwide mourning after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

However, Yerevan is still an active member of the Eurasian Economic Union, which, like the EU, allows the freedom of movement of labour, goods and capital across its member states: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia also maintains a military base in Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city, and Russian remains widely spoken.

Security concerns 

Because of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia is no longer seen as a strong protector against Armenia’s neighbours, Azerbaijan and Turkey. 

Pashinyan has suggested that his party losing the election could lead to more war. 

And one of the reasons why Armenian politicians are courting the bloc is that it is associated with “security and prosperity”,  according to Steve Nix, the International Republican Institute (IRI)’s senior director for Europe and Eurasia.  

In a poll conducted by the IRI in February 2026, 72 percent of Armenians now support joining the European Union. 

“The EU is very appealing,” Nix said. “So whatever campaign can convince the Armenian public that they can guarantee peace, prosperity and EU membership … That’s the message that’s gonna win over Armenia.” 

In the same IRI poll, 29 percent of Armenians said that they saw Russia as the country’s greatest political threat, while only three percent said it was the European Union. 

However, 43 percent of respondents said Moscow was Yerevan’s most important political partner. 

Strong Armenia is trying to court this base, warning that Armenia could see an “economic war” with Russia if Pashinyan’s party stays in power. 

Earlier this month, Putin told Armenia that it cannot be a part of both the Moscow-led economic alliance and the European Union.

Brussels is also getting involved in the election. In December of last year, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said that Armenia had asked the bloc for help. 

“Armenia has elections coming, and what can we do to help them? They have asked for similar help to fight the malign influence, like we granted to Moldova,” Kallas said. 

While the “malign influence” wasn’t specified in her statement, Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, told the Parliament Magazine in an interview that Russian interference in the election was “already happening”.

From May 4 to 5, the bloc will host its first-ever EU-Armenia summit, where Pashinyan will represent Armenia alongside von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council.  

‘Stealing the election’ 

However, this potential ideological push and pull between Moscow and the West, including Brussels and the United States, is causing alarm to some observers, notably the International Observatory for Democracy in Armenia (IODA). 

The organisation was established to monitor the democratic conditions ahead of the elections in June, and is made up of international human rights and democracy experts.

“We can see from the statements of both the West and Russia that they are trying to make their own choice, and this is not acceptable,” Philippe Kalfayan, an executive board member of the IODA, said. 

“They are stealing the election from the Armenian citizens, and they are putting a lot of money on the table for that.” 

One example of this, according to Kalfayan, is the above-mentioned EU-Armenia summit, which he said can signify to the public that the bloc supports Pashinyan, as it comes just a couple of weeks ahead of the election. 

Politicians are also “weaponising” claims that certain parties and political actors are associated with Russia, Sarah Leah Whitson, a human-rights lawyer and member of IODA, said. 

“The government is drumming up anxieties about Russian influence or what might happen from Russia – because they know that will encourage further support, financial or otherwise, from the EU and the US.”

And according to Kalfayan, “the current government has a very good relationship with Russia. Of course, (Moscow) would prefer somebody else less aggressive toward them.”

“But in the end, any Armenian government from whatever political party is obliged to have a good relationship with Russia.” 

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260419-stealing-election-how-armenia-became-next-russia-eu-battlefield