The Economist
May 8, 2004
U.S. Edition

Protest voters; Armenia

A strong president stays in charge

The chances of change in Armenia remain small

UNTIL recently, Armenia was quieter than its neighbours. Armenians
seemed to have little to complain of. The economy has racked up ten
years of growth, inflation is low, the currency stable. President
Robert Kocharian’s government has largely ensured access to light,
heat and other basics. Yet the opposition has been staging
increasingly noisy protests calling for the departure of Mr
Kocharian, whose March 2003 re-election was widely seen as
fraudulent. As a minimum, the opposition wants a referendum to test
support for the government, a compromise recommended by Armenia’s
constitutional court. Mr Kocharian has given dark warnings to
participants in “illegal” protest rallies, and arrested ringleaders.
Vehicles driving into Yerevan have been forced back, for fear they
might carry demonstrators. One 6,000-strong protest was greeted by
water cannons.

Armenia lacks some necessary ingredients for a Georgian “rose
revolution”. Corruption is rampant, and few people outside Yerevan
enjoy the fruits of growth. But Mr Kocharian is less widely hated
than was Edward Shevardnadze. Generous foreign aid—Armenia is one of
the biggest per-head recipients in the world—has obscured government
thievery. Mr Kocharian keeps a steely grip on the local airwaves, in
contrast to the thriving independent media of Georgia. Russia is
still a strong supporter. And the Americans, who helped to push out
Mr Shevardnadze, seem more concerned with stability than
democracy—though American presence in Armenia is quietly increasing.
The opposition is led by Stepan Demirchian, who lacks the charisma of
Georgia’s Mikhail Saakashvili. Many local observers fear that he and
Artashes Geghamian, another opposition leader, are more interested in
a turn at the trough than in real change. The marked absence of young
people at most protest rallies reflects a deep cynicism about
politics.

Meanwhile, the ten-year ceasefire in the war over the disputed
enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is under strain. Azerbaijan’s president,
Ilham Aliev, has been sabre-rattling to drum up support. At a recent
World Economic Forum meeting in Warsaw, where the three Caucasian
presidents met, Mr Aliev dismissed any talk of freeing up trade until
Armenia stopped occupying part of his country. The blockade of
Armenia’s borders by Azerbaijan and Turkey looks like continuing. And
prospects for change in Armenia remain bleak.