Azeri daily says cease-fire plays into Armenia’s hands

Yeni Musavat, Baku
17 May 04

Text of Elsad Pasa report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on
17 May headlined “Protracted cease-fire” and sub-headed “Why are the
authorities speaking out against Heydar Aliyev’s ‘heritage’?”

The news that the question “Is there an alternative to the
cease-fire?” has finally been answered affirmatively by a number of
people representing the circles close to the incumbent authorities
for the first time in the last 10 years continues to reverberate.

Members of the [ruling] New Azerbaijan Party and those patronizing them
have been eulogizing about the cease-fire since 12 May 1994, heaping
praise on [former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev for signing
the accords equivalent to acknowledging defeat. They even ignored
the death of thousands of their compatriots who fell victim to enemy
sniper shots already after the agreement and continued describing
the cease-fire as something extraordinary. They kept saying in all
election campaigns that “there are no more war victims, mothers are
no longer shedding tears for their killed sons”, trying to convince
the nation that the cease-fire was the best available option.

Eventually, the fact that several opposition candidates standing in
the latest [presidential] elections voiced their intention to start
war if they come to power won considerable support in society. It is
the result of Heydar Aliyev’s unsuccessful “peace-loving” policy that
Azerbaijani society now believes in the inevitability of war in order
to regain control over our lands. Moreover, many see [Azerbaijani
President] Ilham Aliyev’s suggestion to start the Karabakh talks
from scratch as a conclusive proof of the collapse of his father’s
“wise policy”.

And finally, the deputies known for their dedication and intimacy
to the tribal leader are clearly expressing their concern with the
fact that the cease-fire has become so protracted. It is noteworthy
that even MP Qudrat Hasanquliyev voiced his protest at calls to view
the cease-fire as a victory, suggested that military expenditure
from the state budget be increased, stressed that the cease-fire was
playing into the hands of the Armenians and that the enemy should be
given one year to vacate our lands or face war. His colleague Elman
Mammadov also acknowledged that the cease-fire was more in Armenia’s
interests than in Azerbaijan’s. In any case, the fact that calls for
war are being made by the people close to the authorities, especially
members of the parliament, makes the issue quite serious. Those who
earlier accused us of impeding Heydar Aliyev’s peace negotiations
and vehemently blamed us for condemning the cease-fire regime are
now making exactly the same statements.

According to political analyst Rasim Musabayov, there are people in
the parliament who seem to understand that the cease-fire is not in
Azerbaijan’s interests.

“On the other hand, the Azerbaijani authorities want to reinforce their
positions by using the military tone in the negotiations. However,
they don’t realize that it is no longer possible to intimidate anyone
in the modern world by such methods. Everyone knows only too well
the real strength of the parties to the conflict. They should try
to appear more flexible in the talks and in the meantime change the
balance of forces in their favour.”

Musabayov thinks the Azerbaijani authorities are unlikely to decide
to start military action in the foreseeable future.

“To make the decision to go to war, the Azerbaijani army has got to
be adequately prepared. I cannot say how prepared the army is now,”
he said.