Caucasus: EU, Azerbaijan Discuss Nagorno-Karabakh
By Ahto Lobjakas

Radio Free Europe, Czech Republic
May 19 2004

Yesterday’s visit to Brussels by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
came on the heels of a decision by the European Commission to recommend
the inclusion of the three South Caucasus countries in the bloc’s
European Neighborhood Policy. The decision — to be formally confirmed
during the EU summit in June — will mean increased integration, but
also greater EU involvement in the region’s crises. EU officials told
RFE/RL yesterday that the bloc is preparing to bring its diplomatic
muscle to bear on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Brussels, 19 May 2004 (RFE/RL) — The decision to start preparing
for the inclusion of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the EU’s
European Neighborhood Policy promises to bring with it new levels of
EU involvement in the region’s so-called “frozen conflicts.”

Yesterday’s talks between visiting Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
and top EU officials indicated the bloc is ready for the first time
to invest significant diplomatic capital in the region.

Both the president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, and the
EU’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, were unusually critical of
the 10-year-long efforts of the so-called Minsk Group — sponsored by
the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — to
negotiate a settlement to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.”Azerbaijan is strongly convinced
that broader international attention, the attention of European
structures, and of public opinion in Europe will help find a quick and
peaceful resolution to the conflict.” — Azerbaijani President Aliyev

“It is true that progress does not seem to be taking place in the last
part of this period of time,” Solana said. “We would like to see if
we can contribute to move the negotiations forward. We hope that the
[latest] of the meetings — not only between the two presidents [of
Azerbaijan and Armenia], but the continuous contacts that are taking
place between the two ministries of foreign affairs — may contribute
to move the process [forward], restart the process. Whatever we can
do — and I promised the president — whatever we can do, we’ll try
and do it.”

Solana, like Prodi before him, stressed that the “Minsk process”
will continue to be managed by the OSCE. The EU, they say, will try
to help where it can and only when invited.

An EU official, who asked not to be named, told RFE/RL after Aliyev’s
talks in Brussels that the Azerbaijani president had lobbied strongly
for increased EU involvement. The official said Aliyev had said
Azerbaijan feels there is a palpable pro-Armenian bias within the
Minsk Group. The group is chaired by the United States, Russia,
and France. Both France and the United States are seen by Baku to be
susceptible to lobbying by the strong Armenian diaspora in the two
countries. Russia still plays a large role in guaranteeing Armenia’s
security — for instance, it provides the country’s border guards.

Aliyev yesterday told reporters after meeting Solana that although
Azerbaijan is not challenging the OSCE mandate of the Minsk Group,
he would like the EU to assume a greater role.

“We consider that the EU is playing a very important role in [relation
to Nagorno-Karabakh]. Of course, the Minsk Group of the OSCE has a
mandate to deal with that issue and of course we are not trying to
change that mandate. But at the same time, Azerbaijan is strongly
convinced that broader international attention, the attention of
European structures, and of public opinion in Europe will help find
a quick and peaceful resolution to the conflict,” Aliyev said.

The unnamed EU source said the bloc has been well served by its
first-ever special envoy to the South Caucasus, Heikki Talvitie, a
Finnish diplomat. Talvitie has earlier worked with the Minsk group
and knows the region well. His six-month mandate will come up for
renewal next month, but its extension is virtually guaranteed.

The EU official said that while maintaining its support for the
Minsk Group, the bloc is currently pursuing a wider strategy of
“triangulation,” involving Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey. In so
doing, the EU is trying to tackle not just Nagorno-Karabakh, but the
overall context of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations.

The source said Aliyev had yesterday strongly argued against steps
aimed at lifting the border closure between Turkey and Armenia
currently in effect. Azerbaijan was said to view the closure as an
essential, if not sole, lever to secure Armenian concessions over
Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding occupied areas.

In fact, when the United States recently put strong pressure on Turkey
to lift the blockade, Baku was said to have warned Washington that
such a move would result in an end to the search for a solution to the
conflict. According to the source, Azerbaijan told the United States
that Armenia would then lose interest in working for a settlement.

Conversely, sources say, Armenia’s president, Robert Kocharian, has
announced that in protest of the border closure, he will not be going
to the NATO summit in Istanbul next month, where he has been invited
as a guest.

The EU official said the strategy of “triangulation” pursues an
incremental approach. In order to secure an easing of the border
closure with Turkey, Armenia will have to initiate a pullback of its
forces from the occupied areas of Azerbaijani territory surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh.

This is a strategy that appears to suit Baku. According to the EU
source, Aliyev told Solana that once Armenia withdraws from the
occupied territories — but not necessarily from Nagorno-Karabakh
— Baku would be ready to launch talks on the final status of the
breakaway region. Armenia, on the other hand, is seen as demanding
a decision on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh before acquiescing to
any further talks.

According to the source, the EU favors Azerbaijan’s step-by-step
approach. The official said the bloc considers it very difficult,
if not impossible, to achieve a comprehensive settlement at one stroke.

Aliyev made clear yesterday that Azerbaijan would not give up
Nagorno-Karabakh. Speaking to the media, the Azerbaijani president
stressed that any solution must respect the country’s sovereignty
and territorial integrity.

However, the EU source said Aliyev had told the bloc’s officials that
Baku was prepared to accord full respect to the “Armenian heritage
and history” of the region, as well as to its “ancient ties” with
Armenia. He did not spell out yesterday the precise details of the
kind of autonomy Azerbaijan would be prepared to offer the breakaway
republic.

The official also said the EU believes the weak domestic standing of
Armenian President Kocharian means it will be very difficult for him
to make concessions. In contrast, the official cited Azerbaijan’s
recent impressive record on domestic issues.

Baku has released hundreds of political prisoners. Ilham Aliyev has
resettled the Azeri refugees fleeing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
— an issue on which his father and predecessor, Heydar Aliyev,
had stalled. Aliyev junior also presides over a rapidly expanding
economy, which grew by 11 percent last year. The EU source said all
this strengthens Aliyev’s hand.

The official said that although the EU still considers the human
rights situation in Azerbaijan “far from satisfactory,” the bloc
recognizes the recent improvements.

Sources say Aliyev had yesterday asked European Commission President
Romano Prodi to open a commission office in Baku. The EU’s executive
arm already has a mission in Tbilisi and has a “sub-office” in
Yerevan. However, EU sources said the current commission, which will
step down in October, is unlikely to be in an “expansionary mood”
at this stage.