Dissident Voice, CA
May 31 2004
Mission Creep: A Force for Global Stability
by Matthew Maavak
Our uncertainties are increasing. The war against Iraq is not abating,
and the intensification of this bloodfest is destabilizing the region
and the global economy. For those who started this war, the cost is
not counted in the numbers of the dead but rather in dollars. We are
swamped with mixed economic reports, uncertain growth prognostications,
ebbing consumer spending and oil prices that keep floating at a
narrow price level marked “high,” despite pledges from OPEC and its
Saudi Arabian fixer that it can light a thousand Aladdin’s lamps for
1001 nights.
The major oil and gas reserves in the Middle East, Central Asia
and Afghanistan can certainly do that, and with ease. It’s just a
coincidence that the US army has cornered this huge, priceless swath
for the “enduring freedom” of its people. The Thieves of Baghdad are
on a roll.
No other region in the world can even attempt to offer a supply
alternative of such scales. All the pipelines leading out of this
region, in every direction, are now under the US sphere of control.
Many pipelines on the drawing board will be redrawn.
It’s also a coincidence that right from the onset, even before 9/11,
President George W. Bush’s team had placed oil and energy at the
forefront of US foreign and domestic policies.
It is yet another coincidence that some imbecile miscalculated along
the way, in the manner affecting the actors below in the following
ways:
Saudi Arabia
In a position to pump more oil at high prices, enriching the Kingdom
in the process. With American soldiers next door, the monarchy’s hand
is strengthened against a restive population, provided they acquiesce
to American demands. They have long played this game well, and the new
terror alerts are not a coincidence as there are lots of petrodollars
flowing into the kingdom right now. As soon as those global terror
alerts sounded, “suspected Al Qaeda” militants killed 17 foreigners in
the oil city of Khobar. You would expect Khobar to be better guarded,
with a history going back to the killing of 19 US soldiers in 1996. The
latest attack didn’t have an effect on Saudi pumps as oil installations
are better protected there than western oil professionals.
As promised by US authorities, there will be an escalation in terror
attacks against America and its allies within and without. Just after
the recent strike, a statement purportedly from Al Qaeda was yet
again posted on “Islamist sites” over the Internet. The tools of the
Patriot Act somehow can’t penetrate the borderless world of cyberspace
to track down the source of these statements while cheap software
can show you the IP address of an email source. This is made easier
in Saudi Arabia, which has a major nodal point to monitor Internet
traffic in and out of the country, a result of its fixation with porn.
When US leaders pillory the Saudi regime as a “breeder of terrorism,”
they have a point but no American president has yet been elected to
put an end to this. Or for that matter any British or Israeli leader,
though, ironically, there are plenty of Arabs and Persians itching
to deal with this “breeder of terrorism.”
Oh yeah, and Bush can’t control the anger of indignant Republicans,
just as he didn’t know the US army would be making a surplus of crazy
snafus in Iraq, when everyone was “sure” of Saddam Hussein’s WMD.
Saudi Arabia is the country that produced 15 of the 19 September 11
hijackers, something the Axis of Warmongers, and their pliant media,
are eager to overlook, except when its time to pressure the Saudi
monarchy.
Israel
Tel Aviv is longing to reopen a colonial era pipeline from Iraq’s
Kirkuk oil fields to the Israeli port of Haifa. The old pipeline was
built by the British in the ’40s and is now in a decrepit state. It
was shut down by neighboring Arab nations after Israel’s war of
independence in 1948. New investments, worth billions, with a brand
new pipeline will solve Israel’s energy needs and meet oil demands from
the Mediterranean region and beyond. Overtures were made to Jordanian
officials a while back to allow a profitable right of passage.
When clinically viewed, a new pipeline would benefit the Arab
countries involved, their oil firms, US oil corporations and Israel.
Ahmad Chalabi had a marked pro-Israel stance and his political stars
should be watched in days to come.
The project is currently unviable as the Arabs would be implacably
hostile to it, unless President George W. Bush’s crusade turns
out to be the mother of all wars, which developing events and his
pseudo-religious mania might make a reality.
Back in 1975, Henry Kissinger had signed a deal to guarantee
Israel much-needed oil in a crisis, and there is a crisis in Israel
every day. Renewed every five years, the deal is backed by special
legislation that requires the US to stock up oil for Israel even if
it “entails domestic shortages.” The deal cost $3 billion (£1.9bn)
in 2002 to US taxpayers. (Guardian, April 20, 2003). You might guess
where some of that reserve oil is going now this summer.
Senator Charles E. Schumer (D- NY) was livid that for “every
penny increase at the pump, $1.36 billion comes out of consumers’
pockets”…while “the administration continues to fill the (US strategic)
reserve with hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil daily despite
the fact that it’s almost 95% full.”
Even Democrats place more premiums on Israeli reserves than domestic
ones.
Why is the United States subsuming its interests to Israel and risking
the wrath of its citizens unless there is a very, very good reason?
Tel Aviv meantime is itching for a fight against the two adversaries
below and not the “breeder of terrorism.”
Iran
Bush or his successor will be “sure” of this nation’s support of
terrorism and their WMD. Watch for more “propatainment,” delivered
blockbuster-style from the US media. Iran has a large reserve of
fossil fuel and is the second largest oil producer in OPEC. It is
the only regional power that can resist American hegemony with
some effect. Militarily, it is completely encircled by the US
army, Pakistan, and a traditionally hostile Saudi Arabia. Iran is
effectively neutralized and new Central Asian pipelines have been
designed to bypass Iran, Syria and Russia. It can no longer use oil as
a weapon although Persians don’t go down that easily without a bloody
fight. Expect another mission creep to follow. Teheran’s position is
severely weakened.
Syria
Bush or his successor will be “sure” of this country’s terror and
WMD infrastructure as well. Doesn’t have the resources of Iran and
will be lucky if it’s only bypassed in any future development. Future
military confrontation likely, with further provocations from Israel,
as Damascus is an unflinching bulwark against long-held US-Israeli
plans for the Middle East.
Syria might likely be included in a new Axis of Evil alongside Iran.
The US is withdrawing 37,000 troops from the Demilitarized Zone
in South Korea, away from a nation that could supposedly nuke the
Californian coast through its Taepodong-2 missiles.
Iraq
Invasion planned long before Sept 11 with an audacity that still hasn’t
sunk into the American public. Till today, many of them think Saddam
plotted 9/11. Oil flowing out but regular supply never guaranteed. A
“coalition of the willing” is battling there, ready to destroy other
vestiges of Arab resistance.
Turkey
The oil from Kirkuk is now transported through the Turkish port of
Ceyhan. Around 14,500 local Iraqis are paid £70 a week by private
security firms to guard this economic lifeline (Daily Telegraph,
May 17). Without this Kurdish oil, Ankara’s geo-political strength
will weaken considerably, at a time when the Turkish economy is
recovering from its doldrums. Here is the perfect opportunity to
wrench concessions out of Turkey.
Afghanistan
Sits on huge natural gas reserves. It was once estimated by the
Soviets (’70s) to be around 5 trillion cubic feet. Status quo can
remain as long as nobody else starts drilling there. The “coalition”
army hardly ventures out of Kabul and other major bases. Hamid
Karzai may be the benevolent face of the “new” Afghanistan but he is
after all, more than a friend to the American government and US oil
corporations. Karzai once worked closely with Afghan-American Zalmay
Khalilzad on a plan to tap Central Asian gas through Afghanistan.
Even the Taliban warmed up to the idea. The CentGas project later
died down due to 9/11, and the subsequent instability in Afghanistan.
It would have been the cheapest route for Central Asian gas.
Khalilzad was later named Bush’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan.
The war on terror here has given the US a pretext to erect military
bases in Central Asia and no one asks why the greatest power on earth
doesn’t find it safe to concentrate its bases on Afghan territory. An
Afghan stalemate would make this Central Asian presence indefinite.
Russia
Pumping more oil than ever, and is reaping good profits. It’s losing
its monopoly on Central Asian oil, with the aforementioned pipelines
planned to divert oil into the Caucasus. The Russians are hopping mad
at this but are not really in a position to militarily challenge US
encroachment in the region. It can barely hold on to Grozny alone;
forget other places in the Caucasus, where its army is conveniently
pinned down by terrorist activities, backed by, who else, the Afghan
Mujaheedin-CIA creation Osama bin Laden!
Attempts at solving the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Dagestan and
Abkhazia has proved unsuccessful so far. Guess who is going to be
play the Tooth Fairy?
China
Global demand for oil is currently insatiable and China’s expanding
economy needs a lot of it. Whoever controls the oil supply to China,
controls its economy, and the extent of its growth rate. If its economy
is pressed, Beijing will focus on what it’s best at — producing cheap
goods of inferior quality; items termed by Singaporean leaders as
“cheap and of high quality.” The reality is many who say this do
not buy wholly Chinese tech products. Many ethnic Chinese stores
in Kuala Lumpur are already rejecting Made-in-China electronic
goods. US shopping malls stock glossy Chinese products that sell
for a song and break at a whim. The only products of “high quality”
are those manufactured with a foreign label, foreign innovation and
strict quality control, a reality that can be lost inside Motorola,
but not among foreign buyers who are switching to Nokia, Samsung and
Siemens cell phones.
If things get worse, it might be interesting to see how the oil-rich
Spratly Islands in South East Asia is played up. Many ASEAN nations
are laying claim to all or parts of it, with a greater degree of
validity than China. The UN’s Law of the Seas conventions only allows
a 200-nautical mile limit to maintain Exclusive Economic Zones,
and not something approaching 800 miles or beyond.
Osama bin Laden
Nobody outside the loop knows where he is or whether he still exists,
or what happened after his last genuinely public “video conference.”
His name is slowly being substituted by the term “Al Qaeda” in major
reports, giving the impression of endless terror from an invisible,
multi-headed Hydra. Not really in media oblivion but could be on
his way.
Tony Blair
Expendable. What else do you expect? If the British electorate
doesn’t kick him out, “New Labour” — itself a corporate buyout —
will replace him with Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of Exchequer.
Brown knows his soldiers are not very expendable. The Brits enjoy a
bloody good fight, but only when they need to.
George W. Bush
Good likelihood of staying. His trump card is “terror”. It is his only
public card. This is the United States, where people think God talks
to this man, who claims to have substituted “Christ” for whatever
he worshipped at his Skull and Bones shrine at Yale University. His
deity certainly wasn’t Jim Beam or San Miguel; otherwise, the United
States would have had an Oktoberfest all year long, complete with
oom-pah-pah dins instead of distant gunfire and deaths. What do you
prefer? Perhaps another fellow cult brother called John Kerry? Still
outraged by Clinton’s consensual indiscretion, are you, perhaps more
than the Abu Ghraib photos?
Soldiers traditionally expendable to meet corporate targets.
The rest of us
This won’t be the end of what looks like a global domination plan. If
the US army stays long enough in the region, expect a series of
mission creeps to follow. The only excuse for them being there is
terror. Watch out for more, dwarfing yesterday’s attacks in Khobar.
Alerts now stretch from Boston, Islamabad to Panama City, and do not
forget Southeast Asia with its Jemaah Islamiya. Only the US government
has such a reach though foreign governments have been “recruited” — an
appropriate term — to avert terror attacks of a 9/11 scale. (AP, May
27). Don’t you think Sept 11 worked wonders for US mega corporations?
It’s summer time, when consumer demands and oil consumption will be at
its annual peak. Businesses need that oil and it will be supplied at
a cost that can be measured more in the number of deaths than dollars.
The US army has completely triangulated the planet’s oil belly from
Incirlik (Turkey) to Manas (Kyrgyzstan) to Masirah (Oman). It will
be there for global economic stability and that’s how our perverse
systems work.
Oil is an issue that the masses, when desperate, will understand. We
can’t have runaway oil prices, can we, even if there are free
alternatives from greasy chicken kung pao. You can speed away on
highways and rock away across the country like how Healing Waters
Band did! It is a little late for that now.
Mathew Maavak publishes an eclectic online journal called the
Panoptic World (). He is a journalist based in the Far
East. Copyright 2004 @ Mathew Maavak.