Big Insinuations For Little Armenia

Russia, Saint-Petersburg
Rosbalt, 31/05/2004, 11:05

It has been repeatedly hinted to Armenia this past month that Yerevan can
better prioritize its foreign policy. Behind the noise and dust raised by
the government and the opposition, Washington is systematically pursuing the
entrenchment of its position in the region.

The opinion of American experts

Washington regularly reminds Yerevan that without its help, Armenia cannot
stand on its own feet and will remain a banana republic in the backwaters of
civilization. And what that help means is not difficult to understand. Thus,
the analytical center STRATFOR, which some regard as a CIA mouthpiece,
recently released a report entitled ‘The Battle for the Former USSR: Wooing
Armenia.’ The experts at STRATFOR think that the United States needs Armenia
in order to become a key player in the region, and that goal is being
hindered by Russia and Iran, with which Yerevan has overly good relations.

Therefore, the report continues, Washington needs to make a policy decision:
‘The United States must do all it can to squeeze Armenia into a corner, and
then a reorientation of Armenian priorities in the US’s favor will be the
only alternative.’ Moreover, a partnership with Washington will be the
panacea for the region’s greatest ill – the conflict in Karabakh. And the
prescription to the problem in this case has more than one application.
‘Armenia has seized the territory of neighboring Azerbaijan, and has made
clear that it has no intention of leaving. But it is only possible to
triumph over a partner of the United States if you yourself become a partner
of the United States,’ SRATFOR openly recommends to Yerevan.

In order that the decision not be made in Armenia, according to the center’s
experts, its fate has already been decided. ‘Nevertheless, the task of
conquering Armenia is doable, and will in the long term be achieved by the
US thanks to the active and assiduous work of diplomatic agencies. All
diplomatic efforts dedicated to the conquest of Armenia must be very
delicate and must take several years.’ True, the center’s experts recognize
that the activities of Russia and Iran might prove a serious hindrance, and
could completely derail US plans.

Practically in tandem, the CIA, together with non-governmental centers, has
released a report entitled ‘Global Trends 2015.’ Until 2015, the report
reads, Armenia will continue to be isolated and dependent on Russia and
Iran, and therefore will continue to be a regional wild card. According to
CIA predictions, the region will continue to be unstable as the result of
unresolved conflicts.

Karabakh damper

Those unresolved conflicts, and the Karabakh conflict in particular,
continue not only to poison relations between Yerevan and Baku, but hang
like the Sword of Damocles over the heads of every Armenian president. It
should be remembered that Levon Ter-Petrosian was obliged to leave his post
early when he tried to reach a compromise on the conflict in Karabakh. At
the time, he left to the unanimous applause of Armenian society. Karabakh is
an issue which has the ability to unite Armenians of all political stripes.

Now, Robert Kocharian appears to be in the same position. What actually
threatens Kocharian now is not the opposition, which wants to depose him,
but pressure from Washington to resolve the Karabakh conflict and reach an
unfavorable compromise. At STRATFOR, that is an openly advocated position:
‘Washington’s support for Azerbaijan’s position regarding the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could drive Armenia into a corner, and then
the reorientation of Armenian priorities in the US’s favor would become the
only alternative.’ It appears as if the situation could take that turn – to
drive Armenia into a corner and force it to distance itself from Russia and
Iran. For any Armenian president, that option would appear far easier than
to compromise on the issue of Karabakh.

Washington is systematically increasing its pressure on Yerevan, gradually
broaching the subject of Karabakh. In particular, the State Department
recently published a particularly harsh addendum to its annual human rights
report: ‘President Robert Kocharian was defeated in 2003 in a disputed
election, which was marred by serious violations and did not meet
international standards.’ In the February version of the report, all that
was said was that violations had occurred. Such declarations look like
unambiguous threats.

At the same time, George Bush has proposed a new ambassador to Armenia to
replace John Ordway. He has proposed John Marshall Evans, the head of the
Russian section at the State Department. The train of thought is hard to
miss. In addition, the new American representative to the OSCE group on the
Karabakh conflict has been named as Steven Mann, who in his time opened the
first diplomatic mission to an independent Armenia, and it is said just as
successfully forced the door open to the new republic’s government.
Moreover, Steven Mann, who is considered to be one of the founding fathers
of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, has remained a senior adviser on energy issues
in the Caspian region.

The Pentagon’s hand?

Meanwhile, according to knowledgeable observers, the issue of Karabakh has
recently been handed over from the State Department to the Pentagon.
According to a source in the Armenian government, the Karabakh question now
has the potential to generate serious and unpredictable complications as the
result of the Pentagon’s decisive involvement in the process, which
diplomats had previously managed to quiet.

What the American military has managed to initiate in the South Caucasus is
difficult to miss. The Boston Globe recently published an article which
stated that the United States is intent on implementing serious military
programs in the South Caucasus, continuing a ‘careful application of soft
power.’ In particular, according to the Boston Globe, a recent conference in
the German city of Garmisch-Partenkirchen of NATO members was dedicated to
the coordination of efforts regarding the Caucasus, which included the
participation of Georgia and Armenia.

The results are already before us. In particular, the Armenian army is
modernizing its most vulnerable sector – communications – with the help of
the United States. Moreover, the Defense Department was obliged at the end
of April to deny reports that Armenia and the US had signed an agreement on
the use of Armenian airfields by the US Air Force. The source of the report
was the very same STRATFOR following a visit to Armenia by US Commander for
Europe, Charles Wald. ‘The true aim of the agreement was the provision of
aid in the material-technical sphere at the request of the other country,
taking into account the interests of one’s own country,’ the Defense
Department hastily explained. But as it is said, there is no smoke without
fire.

Incidentally, Armenia is not only being pressured, it is being given
incentives. In particular, Armenia was recently included on the list of 16
countries which the United States intends to help with its program
‘Millennium Challenges.’ It is anticipated that the Armenian government will
receive in the next two years more than USD 300 million, which will not be
standard American aid, most of which goes to finance American experts, but
rather direct investments in the country’s budget. True, in Washington they
are parsing their words – aid will only be forthcoming if the Armenian
government behaves. And the Armenian government needs that aid urgently, in
order to reduce social tensions in the country and not allow an explosion
being prepared by the opposition to occur. Samvel Martirosian, Rosbalt,
Yerevan.

Translated by Alex Anderson