Kavkaz Center, Turkey
July 23 2004

Caucasus crossword puzzle

Even if you assume that it is a major turf war going on in the
Caucasus, America could not allow another evident failure happening
after the fiasco in Iraq. It is always more costly to be fighting
with an Islamic nation directly. And even though America is more
successful in Hollywood studios, it is still good at making troubles
and intrigues in the so-called third world countries.

Russians have it the other way around. There’s plenty of cannon
fodder, and you can send them wherever you want. And the whole
political ruse is in the number of that cannon fodder and in the
number of tanks per square unit.

But it doesn’t mean at all that the two tactics described above have
collided in the Caucasus. Evident failure in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, which Georgian President Saakashvili is asking for, as the
ordinary citizens believe, is not too obvious unless you take a
little closer look at the logic of the events.

Everybody knows whose protege he is. He was supplied with whatever
necessary in such cases: with money, with military instructors, with
political instructions and with PR through mass media. European
political staff was attached to him so that he could not deviate from
the instructions (and a European wife was found even before that).
While consistently paving the way for their protege, the West is
getting the public opinion trained at the same time. Everybody must
know that once the West patronizes some puppet, then the success is
guaranteed.

Foolish behavior of the so-called «leaders of the Caucasus nations»
looks deplorable in the middle of all of this. They do not have much
of a choice, and the alignment is downright simple. If you do not
want to be dependent on anyone, and if FREEDOM is not a mere empty
word for you, then you should become like first Chechen President
Dudayev, raise a flag with the slogan ‘freedom or death’ and go
ahead. But if you don’t have the guts to defend real independence,
then you should still have enough brains to choose a normal
‘sponsor’.

You have to be ignorant about history and very naïve in politics to
believe in reliability of Russian guardianship. But if they seriously
believe the Kremlin’s today’s leadership, that’s when one must assume
that there is some clinical problem involved.

It is understandable when leaders of South Ossetia or Abkhazia cringe
before Putin. They are the ones who belong to the category of
mentally sick persons mentioned above. But political shortsightedness
of Aslan Abashidze, former leader of breakaway region of Adjaria, was
totally unexpected. A man of noble descent, whose ancestors have
always been in the head of the fight of freedom of Adjaria, a pretty
smart man, all of a sudden believed that Putin would never betray
him. Couldn’t he see it from the record of the Kremlin’s outhouse
‘dumper’?

He ‘dumped’ Castro, he turned in Milosevic and Saddam, and he would
be more than happy to turn in the North Korean leader, but Kim Jong
Il is lucky enough not to depend on Moscow or hope for Moscow. Putin
gave up Central Asia without making too much of a noise. He is giving
up Transdniestria just as quietly too. But why was he not supposed to
give up Adjaria? Just because some Moscow bureaucrats built villas
for themselves down there?

Only after he escaped to Moscow (what a place to escape!), Abashidze
all of a sudden got politically enlightened: turns out Russia has
never had any policies on the Caucasus (!). And now he probably
understands that it would have been much easier to come to an
agreement with Georgian president Saakashvili (who is Georgian of
Armenian descent), rather than allying with those who «do not have
their policies on the Caucasus».

Today’s escalation of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict is a fuss at a
lower level so far. They are pushing one another, they are making
noises, and they excel in little dirty tricks that they do to one
another. Nobody wants to be fighting a war. Fighters for ‘national
independence’ are writing slavish addresses to be accepted back into
the stall of serfs. As far as Russian chauvinist marginals go, they
are smacking their lips when anticipating the coming ‘gathering of
lands’. Their calls are heard in the Russian State Duma (parliament)
«not to be shy and go ahead and join them to us». Many even think
that the Politburo of the past has now reappeared in the Kremlin,
only on a much smaller scale. But today’s dwellers of the Kremlin
have only the ‘not-to-be-shy’ thing left from Politburo of the past.
But their ability to ‘join’ (by force), or ability to ‘retain’ will
never be restored ever again.

To the majority, which is doomed to be constantly deluded, it seems
like there is confrontation between Russian the West going on in the
Caucasus. Although, there are quite a few of those who can guess that
it is a transfer of the Caucasus region to the Western curators going
on in a private manner. But at the same time the ringleaders of
worldwide political mafia have to consider the views of the majority
and this is why it is happening under the guise of fight for areas of
influence.

This kind of concert does not always go smoothly, since you can’t get
all of the idiots initiated into its real goal. You can tell the ones
which ones are ‘initiated’ and which are not from the things that
they say. Georgian Prime Minister Zhvania is one of the ‘initiated’.
He can hardly hold his emotions inside and he reminds that you can’t
jeopardize the agreement between Putin and Saakashvili or the life of
Ossetian and Georgian nations «because of just one idiot». Everybody
understands that South Ossetian leader Kokoity is that ‘one idiot’.
Zhvania is also showing his excessive Armenian caution by not
pointing his finger at the idiot number two, Russian general the
‘peacemaker’. As soon as something went a little wrong against the
scenario, Saakashvili’s nerves began to give. He started panicking
and he came running to his European mother-in-law to complain about
Putin.

That’s where he was probably clamed down and asked not to worry. He
was probably explained what the principles of the dog’s vertical
hierarchy was and that today Putin is the eighth sprocket for G7. He
had to hear that this is what the Western politics is based upon, so
that the delusion of the majority and excessive activities of idiots
could be used to your own advantage. And he was told that you can’t
take the delusion away from the majority right off the bat and you
can’t be counting on the same idiots over and over again.

After little specifications made backstage, after the trips of
resented Saakashvili to England and after sudden arrival of ‘buddy’
Schroeder, Putin organizes an interesting meeting, where the entire
diplomatic corps was invited. They say it was the second case like
that ever since the times of Red Commissars. Back then the situation
was critical. Bolsheviks kept throwing in the slogan ‘Revolution in
Danger!’ But what about today? Supposedly, there was a good reason
why all ambassadors from all countries were gathered.

Russian media quoted Putin’s key phrase, which at first sounds
somewhat contradictory. He proposes to attach a number one priority
to the diplomatic activities in CIS states, and then all of a sudden
he says that one shouldn’t think that Russia is the only country that
has the right to be a leader in these states. Like, we must consider
the reality.

It was probably all clear to those in the auditorium. But we won’t be
able to figure it out that quick. What is it? Aesopian language or
accidental slip of the tongue? If some group of countries is the
number one priority for diplomatic activities, then maximum
strengthening of influence is usually the goal. But if you agree to
the leadership of other countries in the region, then what’s the
point of the ‘prioritized activities’?

It doesn’t sound too clear to ordinary people. But if the G7 pointed
to Putin to quietly move over from that ‘prioritized’ CIS and prepare
a place for someone else, then everything is falling into place and
there is no discrepancy at all. Replacing one leader, even a bad one,
for another, even a good one, is a painful and not easy process. And
this is where prioritized diplomacy is necessary in order to lull the
majority and not to get the ‘uninitiated idiots’ excited before their
time.

But let’s leave the interesting gathering of Russian diplomats behind
and let’s go back to South Ossetia. Let’s imagine a fantastic
situation: Georgia and South Ossetia are left face to face to deal
with each other. Georgia would have never been able to restore its
influence in this part of the Caucasus by using its own power. Even
if this whole thing lasted until the second coming of Christ.
Moreover, if Georgia calls its new patrons for help and South Ossetia
remains without the support from Moscow (with the condition that
Moscow will not be doing nasty things and will not block the Cross
Mountain Pass), then Georgia’s chances would still not have been
increased too much. And only when Saakashvili starts enjoying full
support from his new masters, and when Westernized part of the
population will be strengthened in Ossetia, that’s when the Kremlin
will take its weaponry away and choke Ossetia in a perfidious way
from behind, — and only then South Ossetia will be integrated into
Georgia. And the Kremlin’s perfidy will be the main and determining
condition here. Georgian patchwork quilt cannot be put together
without it.

The political concert is gathering momentum. While this article is
being written, Georgian-Ossetian negotiations are going in full swing
in Moscow. Mass media are squeezing the adrenaline from ordinary
citizens: like, negotiations are going on in «hard… and difficult
conditions, but still…». So far the Georgian side made a proposal «to
disarm unnecessary formations in the conflict zone». The Kremlin’s
‘dumpers’ must treat it with understanding, and then the nature will
take its course…

In this kind of shows somebody has to be made a fool. South Ossetian
leader Kokoity is most fit for this role. Judging by how talkative
and self-satisfied he is, and judging by his thoughtless actions, he
is not going to let anybody else have this role.

Abkhazia will be next. Its leaders are just like Kokoity. Their
statements are just as strong, and they are counting on Moscow the
same way. And their naïve assurance that they can never be overthrown
is the same as well,… since they all have Russian passports…

It’s not too pleasant to be making any predictions. We were just
trying to be guided by the main political tendencies and the logic of
the events. In this temporal world plans and predictions that the
people are making will be fulfilled only as much as Almighty Allah
decides, praise be to Him, and great He is.

Saad Minkailov, Jokhar, CRI.
For Kavkaz-Center