Turkish Probe
July 25, 2004
PM CLAIM OF FRENCH SUPPORT PREMATURE: ERDOGAN’S VISIT TO PARIS WAS
INFLATED INTO AN ULTIMATE VICTORY FOR TURKEY’S EU BID IN MEDIA AND
GOVERNMENT CIRCLES, DESPITE FRENCH LEADERS SHYING AWAY FROM PUBLICLY
VOICING SUPPORT
by ELIF UNAL ARSLAN, TDN diplomatic editor
ANKARA – Turkey, hungry to be recognized as part of Europe, was quick
to hail an official three-day visit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan to Paris last week as a victory in efforts to secure French
backing for its European Union bid.
Both French President Jacques Chirac and his prime minister,
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, in meetings with Erdogan signalled no change in
their earlier position that Paris’ decision on whether or not Turkey
is ready to start accession talks would depend on a progress report
scheduled to be released by the EU Commission in October.
Erdogan, however, declared that France no longer remained “guarded”
against Turkey’s eventual entry to the European club. “What I see is
that they are no longer guarded against Turkish membership. At least
they can no longer say, ‘We are against Turkey’,” he told reporters
on his way back home Wednesday.
“France says Oui,” mass-circulation Milliyet daily screamed in its
headline on the same day. “Support for for Turkey’s EU plea in
France,” said Star newspaper on its front page. Commentaries were
talking about the close friendship between French President Chirac
and Erdogan as a key to locking up the EU door for Turkey.
These confident Turkish voices clearly sprang from a $ 1.5 billion
deal signed in Paris in the presence of Erdogan and Chirac between
Turkish Airlines (THY) and Airbus — a French-German joint venture.
The deal, criticized by some as a “bribe” to win skeptical France’s
support, was not the only carrot Erdogan had offered. He told French
businessman that Turkey was willing to cooperate with French
companies in plans to build nuclear energy plants — each of which is
estimated to cost some $ 5 billion.
His open invitation for French firms to participate in the lucrative
“Marmaray Project” designed to link Istanbul’s rail network with a
tunnel under the Bosphorus was no less attractive.
Erdogan also winked at French companies, signalling in his meetings
with French officials that they might also get favorable terms in
future Turkish defense procurement tenders aimed at acquiring new
technology for the Turkish Armed Forces.
Turkish-French ties recuperate
His offers mark a certain progress in ties between the two countries
that hit rock bottom two years ago when France, despite strong
Turkish protests, publicly recognized allegations of a so-called
Armenian genocide in 1915. Since then, France was kept out of
Turkey’s lucrative trade and military tenders.
But Erdogan’s moves do not seem to have had enough of an effect on
French leaders, who shied away from delivering support in public for
Turkey’s EU quest.
Chirac, after having lunch with the Turkish prime minister at the
Elysee Palace, requested a continuation of Turkish reforms, drawing
attention to the key report that the EU Commission is due to release.
Prime Minister Raffarin, followed Chirac’s line and reiterated that
France was awaiting the comission’s assessment on Turkey’s progress.
Turkish officials appear confident that France is unlikely to let
down an EU-aspirant country when it comes down to its economic
partnership with that country.
But Chirac has been under heavy pressure from within his own
conservative party to oppose Turkish entry to the EU. The French
president, in a attempt to ease the pressure on him, earlier said he
believed Ankara was not likely to be able to meet the bloc’s
conditions for another 10 to 15 years.
Chirac risks angering the French public if he supports opening
accession talks with Turkey. But if he opposes it, he could cause a
crisis within the EU. Britain, Greece, Germany, Italy and Spain
already back starting the talks on Turkey’s entry, which could take
up to 10 years.
The French president’s discretion has its roots in domestic political
considerations. All but one of the last 20 opinion polls on the issue
have shown 50 to 60 percent of French voters oppose Turkish entry to
the EU.
The membership of Turkey, located at the crossroads of Europe and
Asia, would stretch the EU’s borders to Syria and Iraq — a fact that
opponents say moves Europe too close to the unstable Middle East.
During Erdogan’s trip, Foreign Minister Michel Barnier said in a
radio interview that “Turkey should not expect to enter the European
Union tomorrow morning,” even if it improves its human rights record
and reforms its justice system, two key requirements.
“Turkey still has a ways to go towards becoming a social and
democratic model along the lines of the European model,” Barnier
said.
Turkey has passed sweeping democratic reforms to meet the EU’s
membership criteria, abolishing the death penalty and granting
greater cultural rights to some 10 million Kurds.
Opposition socialists in France were proud to say that they were the
only French political party backing Turkey’s accession. But French
Socialist Party Secretary-General Francois Hollande told Erdogan in
Paris that the issue of recognition by Turkey of allegations of a
so-called Armenian genocide in 1915 was a condition for its
accession.
The issue, however, is not part of the Copenhagen criteria, which
Ankara has to meet in order to get the nod to begin accession talks
with the EU.
The French socialists’ stance is something that exasperates Turkey,
which strongly denies all genocide claims and says the number of
deaths is inflated and that the victims were killed in civil unrest.