Armenia: Political struggle ahead of parliamentary elections eyed

Iravunk web site, Yerevan
30 Jul 04

Text of Armen Arakelyan report by Armenian news agency Iravunk web
site on 30 July headlined “Summer sun with flavour of political
speculation”

The opposition has gone on holiday, with the possible exception of the
leader of the People’s Party of Armenia, Stepan Demirchyan, who is
visiting the USA and meeting with state officials and the Armenian
diaspora. President Robert Kocharyan has gone on a 10-day holiday as
well. Nonetheless, internal political processes do continue, albeit in
a hidden form.

Naturally, the summer holidays do not hinder the intrigues within the
pyramid of power at all. For example, according to some reports,
presidential adviser [on security issues] Garnik Isagulyan, together
with other influential officials, is waging an “office war” with the
top presidential aide [state legal adviser Artavazd Gevorkyan]. Rumour
has it that the president was displeased with his top aide when “good
people” told him about some personnel intrigues of A. Gevorkyan, of
which fact, naturally, the ” almighty” aide’s ill-wishers immediately
took advantage.

The policy of “dumping” compromising materials [Russian: sliv
kompromatov] is being implemented quite actively as well. Statesmen
use this technology to snitch on one another via the press, calling
one another the organizers of stock exchange manipulations which
resulted in dramatic fluctuations in the dollar exchange
rate. Allegations about the 27 October 1999 terrorist act have been
renewed again at the level of rumours and “dumping”, and someone
purposefully whispers into journalists’ ears [as published] piquant
details about the role of different quite influential and high-level
persons in that crime. However, no-one can guarantee the reliability
of these “details”, but who knowsý

Of course, the greatest number of rumours in Armenia are about
imminent personnel changes. There is talk that the president intends
to sack a number of unpopular ministers and thereby upset the
coalition balance. If this happens, instability in parliament will
become inevitable.

Incidentally, the discussion on the draft electoral code and rumours
about the possible dissolution of parliament were launched almost
simultaneously.In the Armenian political reality, the electoral law is
usually changed a few months before the elections, so that it meets
the requirements of different political or other groups. It follows,
therefore, that the urgent summer discussions about the electoral code
mean that the president intends to do something.

In particular, among the suggested changes is the mandatory
resignation of the executive branch before the candidates for the
parliamentary elections are nominated. This means that any minister
who runs in the elections will be deprived of his own administrative
resources and will be forced to rely solely on the administrative
resources of the president.

All in all, changes gather head during the summer holidays, and they
might change substantially the arrangement of political forces before
the autumn political battles.

[signed] Armen Arakelyan