Azeri pundit warns of growing radicalism threat

Yeni Musavat, Baku
12 Aug 04

Azerbaijan may become another Iraq for America one day, Azerbaijani
analyst Vafa Quluzada has told Yeni Musavat daily. Unsatisfied by the
American and Russian position on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict,
Azerbaijan may turn to Iran and become a “religious regime”, he
said. Azerbaijan has not yet opened its embassy in Israel, which is a
sign of Iran’s influence on the Azerbaijani government, he said. The
following is an excerpt from Zahid Safaroglu’s report by Azerbaijani
newspaper Yeni Musavat on 12 August headlined “‘Azerbaijan is in a
disastrous state'” and subheaded “Vafa Quluzada: A process of building
a strong foundation for a religious regime is under way in
Azerbaijan”; subheadings inserted editorially:

The South Caucasus remains the focus of attention of regional and
global powers. Important processes capable of influencing the future
of the region have started after a democratic government came to power
in Georgia. Russia and Iran have stepped up their activity. In turn,
the USA does not hide its intention to reinforce its main foothold in
the Caucasus – Georgia – and continues to support the Saakashvili
government in all ways.

Unfortunately, in this turbulent and momentous period, the Azerbaijani
government is seen as the weakest link. What will be the impact of the
processes related with the conflict of geostrategic and geopolitical
interests of those powers? We have tried to clarify this and other
issues in our conversation with political analyst and ex-presidential
aide Vafa Quluzada.

Iran’s clout in Azerbaijan

Correspondent In the wake of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami’s
visit, US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld unexpectedly arrived in
Azerbaijan. The unscheduled visit of Rumsfeld is being explained as
the manifestation of the White House’s concern at closer relationship
between Baku and Tehran. Do you think that Iran is actually capable of
threatening US interests in Azerbaijan?

Quluzada It cannot be a serious threat. However, Iran can demand that
Baku should not undermine the security of its borders and it should
not let US servicemen pose a threat to Iran. In the event the Baku
government does not agree to that, the Tehran regime has some levers
to influence it and may use them.

Correspondent What are those levers?

Quluzada I would not talk of them. A person who has worked in
government does not disclose all the issues. I will only name just one
point. Azerbaijan has yet to open an embassy in Israel. Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have done so, but not Azerbaijan. Why? It
looks like Iran has a lever which it uses in order not to let
Azerbaijan take this step. Second, those who observed Khatami’s visit
well must have noticed how confident and satisfied he was. In my
opinion, it is because Tehran has wielded its levers vis-a-vis
Azerbaijan. Iran will either try to curtail US-Azerbaijani military
cooperation or will set forth other demands.

Correspondent Are Iran’s levers connected with Azerbaijan or only with
its political regime and some of the officials? That is, are these
levers connected with our perennial national interests regardless of
who is in office or are they purely subjective motives?

Quluzada (Laughing) It goes without saying that levers are not
connected with land, geopolitical territories or space. They are
connected with people.

Correspondent So, it has to do with the political regime.

Quluzada Perhaps. Iran is a country which has worked against and
closely monitored and studied Azerbaijan since we were part of the
USSR. One should never forget that. However, I reckon that the border
between the two countries will always remain peaceful.

Correspondent When the late Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev
visited Iran, the sides signed an agreement to prevent the use of
their territories against each other. Why is Tehran still concerned?

Quluzada Let them sign a hundred documents. Hitler and Stalin, Molotov
and Ribbentrop also had a treaty not to attack each other. What was
the result? I mean that no documents work in certain political
situations.

Correspondent Next week Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov
will pay yet another visit to Russia, the “big brother”. Does
development of relations between Iran and Azerbaijan and Tehran’s
interests here clash with Russia’s interests in Azerbaijan?

Quluzada Albeit Russia and Iran are strategic opponents, they are
tactical allies. They are strategic enemies because both the Kremlin
and Iran want to rule in the Caucasus. However, they are tactical
allies to prevent closer relations between the Caucasus countries and
America. They cooperate in this aspect.

Iran believes that Russia today is not a tsarist or Soviet empire, and
is heading for a demise. Tehran wants to take over Russia’s sphere of
influence. This is a real issue and Moscow is concerned about this.

Azerbaijan may turn to Iran

Correspondent You said that the USA may lose Azerbaijan as its
strategic partner. Could you elaborate on this? What did you mean?

Quluzada The USA has to know that if it adopts a just position on the
Karabakh issue, then it will earn the respect of the Azerbaijani
people. If it becomes a guarantor of our territorial integrity, then
it can turn into our permanent ally. However, if it is misled by the
Russians and endorses a plan drafted by the Kremlin, then there can be
no talk of any sympathy. Because the Azerbaijani people know that
without America’s approval, the lands cannot be given to Armenia.
Otherwise, Azerbaijan will turn away from both America and Russia. It
will turn towards Iran.

Correspondent What do you mean?

Quluzada Can you imagine a religious regime in Azerbaijan? My
observations show that a process of building a strong foundation for
this is under way in Azerbaijan.

Radical Islamic organizations

Correspondent Is the process going on its own or it is under foreign
influence?

Quluzada Both on its own and under influence, this is a two-way
process.

Could it be otherwise? Where else can the hot-blooded Azerbaijanis see
an exit but in creating radical Islamic organizations?

One day Azerbaijan may turn into an Iraq for the Americans. Washington
has to be aware of this. It should not play with the destiny and
territory of Azerbaijan. It is in America’s national interest to
protect our territorial integrity. Washington has demonstrated in
Georgia that it can do so easily.

At this moment Tbilisi can talk the way it likes with Moscow because
it is backed by the USA. America now wields so much power that despite
screaming Russians it brought under its control Yugoslavia, placed its
military bases in Central Asia and seized Afghanistan, again despite
Russia’s protests. When it comes to Azerbaijan, however, America
becomes timid, cannot name the aggressor and declares that let the
sides reach an agreement.

This is an anti-Azerbaijan stance on part of the USA. Because Russia,
which renders military and political assistance to Armenia, shares the
same view. What is the difference then? It has come to the point when
both Armenians and Russians have become our brothers. Then let us give
up those lands, once and for all… Ellipses as published

Russia’s prospects in Azerbaijan

Correspondent Here is another question about our region. Relations
between Georgia and Russia are increasingly tense. What are the
prospects and how will this affect the region?

Quluzada I reckon that Russia is being pushed out of Georgia. This is
a very unpleasant outcome for Russia and this is what generates the
tension.

Passage omitted: Quluzada about Russia’s mentality

Correspondent What impact can the exit of Russia from Georgia have on
Azerbaijan?

Quluzada Moscow will then cling to Azerbaijan. It will expand its
influence and will do its utmost to keep Azerbaijan within its sphere
of influence.

Correspondent Hence, it is pointless to talk about any constructive
position on the Karabakh issue?

Quluzada Moscow will then use the Karabakh issue in a perfidious
way. The objective will be to entrench itself in Azerbaijan for
ever. It will liberate our lands, inch by inch, in 50 or 100 years, on
the eve of elections. A pro-Russian and puppet regime will be
installed in Azerbaijan, and Russia will liberate a district when
necessary to strengthen the regime’s position. In a nutshell, Russia
will liberate our lands when Azerbaijan is completely under its
control and becomes a colony, like Armenia. This is Russia’s strategy.

However, Azerbaijan is in such a disastrous state that it is unable to
properly assess this strategy and to devise its own strategy in
response.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress