armenianow.com
August 13, 2004

Safe at Home?: Survey looks at homeland security

By Zhanna Alexanyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

The Armenian National and Military Research Center has released a survey
projecting the republic’s defense capabilities.
“Armenia’s National and International Security in 5-10 Years” is information
gathered from 50 experts and 2,021 citizens through Armenia.
Stephan Safaryan, the center’s expert in state-legality and home policy
questions, presented the results of the survey.
“Our point was to estimate from society’s point of view what dangers they
expect in the coming 5 to 10 years,” Safarian said.
The survey found that 76 percent of experts think Armenia has no national
security. But only 27.5 percent of citizens agreed with the experts.
“Such a big difference is apparent, because experts are very informed and
know today’s situation and many other issues that become dangerous for
Armenian security,” Safaryan said. “Experts can analyze deeper and know the
dynamics of problems to reach an opinion that security cannot be guaranteed
even partly.”
How do experts and citizens assess security issues?
The number one danger (44 percent of experts and 47.5 percent of citizens)
is renewed military action with Azerbaijan.
The second concern for experts is the presence of Russian military bases in
Armenia (though they don’t foresee any problems in the coming five years or
so). Average citizens in the survey, however, concluded that only Russia
could guarantee Armenia’s safety.
General citizens are also concerned about the possibility of civil war,
sparked by political discord.
About 22 percent see serious conflict within the next five years.
“Society understands that all peaceful methods of the political games are
over and only harsh methods remain,” said Safaryan.
Experts and citizens agreed that flawed elections could lead to serious
security problems in the coming five years. Thirty percent of experts saw
this as Armenia’s number one security issue.
“Comments in the questionnaires say that another October 27 (the date of the
1999 Parliament assignations) is possible,” Safaryan said. “The reason is
that the real criminals are still not identified.”