ISN, Switzerland
Aug 24 2004
US troop redeployment sparks rumors on Azeri base 24.08.2004
News that the US is planning a massive redeployment of its armed
forces has Azeris wondering whether their country will soon host US
troops.
By Fariz Ismailzade for EurasiaNet
News that the US is planning a massive redeployment of its armed
forces has Azeris wondering whether their country will soon host US
troops. Azeri officials are coy on the base question, prompting some
local political analysts to say Baku is trying to leverage the issue
to achieve a breakthrough on the stalled talks on a Nagorno-Karabakh
peace settlement. Speculation over whether the US would establish a
military base in Azerbaijan began almost immediately after US leaders
announced 16 August that up 70’000 US troops in Europe and East Asia
would be redeployed. Most US soldiers appear headed back to the US,
but some will staff new facilities, in keeping with the Pentagon’s
desire to create a more mobile armed forces. A few days before the
announcement, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku
for hastily arranged talks. The Azeri government provided only a
vague description about the discussions. However, Zerkalo, an
independent daily newspaper, claimed that a tentative base deal had
been reached. “Moreover, the USA is interested in modernizing …
military airfields in Azerbaijan,” Zerkalo reported on 17 August,
without citing a source. Azeri media have also seized on recent
comments attributed to General Charles Wald, the deputy commander for
US forces in Europe, who reportedly indicated that US defense
officials were considering Azerbaijan, Uganda, and the island state
of Sao Tome as potential host sites for US rapid deployment forces.
According to the Azeri reports, the US is seeking a base in
Azerbaijan to ensure the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
and to monitor developments in Iran, which Washington believes is
working hard to develop nuclear weapons.
Fait accompli
While some Azerbaijani media outlets are treating a US base as a fait
accompli, the only public statements on the issue by Azeri officials
have been non-committal. Foreign Minister Eldar Mammadyarov has
acknowledged that talks are on-going, but he stressed on 19 August
that “it is naive to think that military bases can be set up
overnight”. Some analysts say it wasn’t coincidental that Mammadyarov
made the statement in Moscow. Russia is on record as opposing any US
redeployment that would place US troops in the formerly Communist
sphere, and a few observers believe the potential US base is at the
center of a geopolitical game being played by Baku. The objective,
from Baku’s viewpoint, is to secure increased political support for a
Karabakh peace settlement that is to Azerbaijan’s liking. Azerbaijan
has insisted that any settlement leave the region under Baku’s
jurisdiction. Azeri officials have grown restless in recent months
over the lack of progress in the peace talks. Mammadyarov said in a
19 August television interview that the Karabakh question topped his
agenda during talks with Russian leaders in Moscow. Some in Baku
believe Russia, given Moscow’s close strategic relationship with
Armenia, is the key to achieving the desired breakthrough on
Karabakh. A trade-off involving Azerbaijan’s rejection of a US base,
effectively in return for greater Russian support for Baku in the
Karabakh peace process, could possibly pressure Armenia into
softening its Karabakh negotiating position.
A diplomatic bargaining chip
Some pundits say Mammadyarov’s attempt to use the base issue as a
diplomatic bargaining chip has so far failed. They note that both
Russia and the US have given no public indication of shifting their
existing positions on the Karabakh peace process. Given the apparent
failure of what some in Baku describe as Azerbaijan’s base “bluff”,
officials are now left to weigh the potential merits and liabilities
of playing host to US troops. Political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov,
writing in an analysis published 19 August analysis by Zerkalo,
examined the pros and cons of the base issue. On the plus side,
Mirqadirov said the presence of US forces would facilitate rapid
economic development in the region. He also downplayed the
possibility of Russian retaliation, arguing that Moscow “is not ready
for global confrontation with the United States”. Mirqadirov,
however, envisioned several potential negatives arising out of a
possible basing arrangement. A US presence, for example, could make
Azerbaijan a target of Islamic militant action. It could also
potentially limit Azerbaijan’s options in striving to achieve its
Karabakh settlement objectives. In addition, Mirqadirov voiced
concern about the possibility of Azerbaijan becoming embroiled in the
long-running feud between the US and Iran. “The Americans do not rule
out that Iran is their future target,” Mirqadirov said. “If all these
statements are made in order to frighten Tehran – then that’s one
thing. But if the Americans start another mess – moreover, one along
our border – then Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be
dragged into this conflict.” Azeris interviewed at random on the
streets of Baku offered a mixed view on the base issue. “We need to
see, first, what is our benefit from these bases. Will they help us
in the war with Armenia?” said Nargiz, a university student. Niyazi,
an employee at a trading house, suggested an American troop presence
would “only bring us trouble with Iran.” Others, however, said US
troops would help defend against potential encroachment by Iran or
Russia against Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus politics and
economics. He has obtained his masters degree from the Washington
University in St. Louis and is currently based in Baku.
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