ARMENIAN POLITICAL STANDOFF DRAGS ON AS OPPOSITION SHUNS PARLIAMENT

EurasiaNet.org
8/31/04

Eurasia Insight
**
By Emil Danielyan

Armenian opposition leaders recently announced they would prolong their
boycott of parliament. The announcement appeared to dash President
Robert Kocharian’s hopes of putting to rest questions about his
administration’s legitimacy.

Kocharian and his critics have been at odds since the 2003 presidential
election, which was tainted by numerous voting irregularities. The
defeated opposition candidate, Stepan Demirchian, has refused to
recognize the election results. To draw attention to their complaints,
Demirchian and other opposition leaders have maintained a boycott
of the legislature. Opposition MPs have already refrained from
participating in parliamentary sessions for seven months.

On August 27, the executive board of the opposition Justice alliance,
headed by Demirchian, decided to continue the boycott during the next
legislative session. The alliance bloc’s key ally, the National Unity
Party (AMK), is expected to follow suit. Justice and the AMK are the
only opposition forces represented in Armenia’s National Assembly,
holding 23 of its 131 seats.

Justice leaders complain that Kocharian’s administration has not met
any of their demands. “None of the reasons for our walkout from the
National Assembly has been addressed,” one of them, Victor Dallakian,
said, singling out the authorities’ refusal to hold a “referendum of
confidence” in Kocharian.

The Armenian Constitutional Court, in a non-binding decision concerning
the 2003 presidential election tally, had suggested a referendum on
Kocharian’s authority. However, the parliament, which is dominated by
Kocharian loyalists, refused in February to debate the issue. That,
in turn, prompted Justice alliance and AMK lawmakers to launch their
boycott.

The continuation of the boycott keeps open the possibility of renewed
street protests against Kocharian. In March, Justice and AMK began
organizing mass demonstrations in an effort to force Kocharian’s
resignation. The protest effort, however, never gained enough political
momentum to pose a serious danger to Kocharian’s hold on power.
Ultimately, the protests ran out of steam in May, amid a government
crackdown. The opposition formally abandoned the protest strategy in
late spring, but has remained defiant, pledging to continue to fight
for “the restoration of constitutional order” in Armenia.

Authorities, mindful of the boycott’s negative impact on their
democratic credentials abroad, have tried hard to get the opposition
minority back to the parliament. They have offered, in particular,
to give the opposition a voice in the planned reform of Armenia’s
constitution and in the writing of new electoral legislation. At the
same time, the Kocharian majority has threatened to strip opposition
members of their parliament seats. Under Armenian law, parliamentarians
can be expelled from the legislature for absenteeism.

The threats do not seem to be taken seriously by Justice and the
AMK, though. “Are they so stupid to do that? I don’t think so,” said
Justice lawmaker Shavarsh Kocharian (no relation to the president).

The boycott aside, opposition leaders appear to be struggling to
formulate new political tactics. Opposition leaders acknowledge
that their spring protest tactic was ineffective and is now being
reconsidered. The AMK’s outspoken leader Artashes Geghamian, for
example, now believes that Armenians should be urged to take to the
streets only for a decisive and quick push for power.

Most local analysts doubt the opposition has the ability to organize
crowds big enough to force Kocharian’s resignation. Still, the
government is taking no chances. In late August, officials tightened
rules for the holding of public gatherings. Those rules are grounded
in a new Armenian law that Council of Europe legal experts believe
violates European standards on freedom of assembly.

Meanwhile, there is mounting speculation about Kocharian’s political
future. The Armenian constitution bars the president from seeking
a third term. But some presidential supporters have suggested that
Kocharian, now in his second term, could be a candidate in the next
presidential vote, scheduled for 2008. A package of constitutional
amendments drafted by Kocharian and his top allies would keep the
two-term restriction. However, the proposed amendments may still
undergo changes before being put to a referendum next year.

Assuming that the 50-year-old Armenian leader will voluntarily quit in
2008, he must already be thinking about a successor. The most obvious
choice seems his most trusted lieutenant, Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian. Both men are natives of Nagorno-Karabakh and have worked
in tandem ever since moving to high positions in Yerevan in the 1990s.

With his pervasive influence on economic affairs, Sarkisian is widely
regarded as the second most powerful official in Armenia. However,
his presidential ambitions would not sit well with at least one of
the three parties represented in Kocharian’s coalition government,
the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.

Among other potential successors are parliament speaker Artur
Baghdasarian and Justice Minister David Harutiunian. They publicly
clashed during a parliament session earlier this year after
Baghdasarian accused Harutiunian’s ministry of misusing a World Bank
loan to strengthen Armenia’s judiciary. The accusations were construed
by some commentators as a sign of unfolding personal rivalry between
the two relatively young politicians.

A new influential government faction, headed by Prosecutor-General
Aghvan Hovsepian, has also emerged in recent months. Hovsepian is close
to Kocharian, and has cobbled together a strong support base in Aparan,
his home region in central Armenia. Hovsepian’s ostensibly apolitical
organization already has several representatives in the parliament
and is aspiring to amass greater political clout. A leading Yerevan
daily, Haykakan Zhamanak, has described him as another potential
presidential nominee.

The presidential succession question has not generated much interest
among ordinary Armenian citizens, many of whom doubt the fairness of
the electoral process. As another newspaper, Aravot, editorialized
in late August; “The next president will be the one who will have
the security structures and gangs of [government-connected] thugs at
his disposal.”

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.