Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 6, 2004, Monday

NOT AN INCIDENTAL CHOICE

SOURCE: Izvestia (Moscow issue), September 03, 2004, p. 5

by Natalia Ratiani

ONE OF THE GOALS FOR TAKING OF THE SCHOOL IN BESLAN IS CREATION OF
IRREPARABLE DAMAGE TO ARRANGEMENT OF INTER-ETHNIC PEACE BETWEEN
OSSETIANS, INGUSHS AND CHECHENS

(…)

The militant struck very harshly in the most vulnerable place in the
Russian Caucasus. This is North Ossetia, which has been stuck in
solving of the problems of its South Ossetia neighbor in the last few
months. Until September 1, it seemed that uniting of the two Ossetias
would contribute to stabilization of the situation in the region.
That is why one of the goals for taking of the school in Beslan is
creation of irreparable consequences for arrangement of inter-ethnic
peace between the Ossetians, Ingushs and Chechens. Another goal is
undermining of Russia’s authority on international arena and
isolation of South Ossetia from Russia’s help. There is no doubt that
now Russia will pay more attention to North Ossetia. Meanwhile,
Georgia can restart the operation under the speaking name of
“humanitarian aid.” Along with this, the price of the issue is so
high now that organizers of this cruel action did not even care about
the final destruction of the remaining positive pro-Chechen attitude
in the West.

Now Russia actually faces the multi-vector threats in the most
diverse directions of the Caucasus. The question is not how quickly
Russia manages to formulate its new main goals in the Caucasus. The
question is if it will be able to accumulate the force and human
resource and to take into account the interests of all players in the
Caucasus without exception connecting them in one knot. There is a
certain positive motion in this direction. The events in Beslan
already triggered mass meetings of protest against taking of hostages
in Chechnya and Ingushetia. President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity
arrived in North Ossetia. Influential Armenian politicians (there are
Armenian children among the hostages) offered their mediation
services. All these events show that internally the region is
prepared to take the last try and to stop on the brink of the gorge
of a new Caucasian war or, according to Dmitry Rogozin, balkanization
of the region. Active position of Russia as a Caucasian power in
solving of this problem looks much more natural and expected than
efforts of the US aimed at reconciliation of the people of former
Yugoslavia.

* * *

President of the Institute of National Strategy Stanislav Belklovsky:

– The events in Beslan cannot taken separately from the long-standing
Ossetian-Ingush conflict. There is a serious inter-ethnic conflict
between the Ossetians on the one side and Chechens and Ingushs on the
other side. If it is restarted (Ossetians will definitely take
revenge), this will be a factor of long-term destabilization of the
region, especially if it will be necessary to release the militants
under pressure of terrorists. The militants who participated in the
attack at Ingushetia on June 22 are now kept in prison in
Vladikavkaz.

General Director of the Center for Political Studies Konstantin
Simonov:

– The choice of North Ossetia is not incidental. Relations betweens
the Ossetians and Chechens-Ingushs have always been tense due to
their different religious and ethnic belonging. That is why it is
very simple to provoke a Christian-Moslem conflict there. It seems
that this time the main goal of the terrorists is not restarting of
full-scale forceful actions in Chechnya, like this was in case of
attack at Dagestan in 2000 but also broadening of geography of the
conflict up to an international scale. We can recall the recent
statement of Saakashvili in which he said that Russia threatened
Georgia with war and called on Chechens and Ingushs to help him. The
matter was actually about formation of a kind of front against the
Ossetians. If this goal is achieved the conflict will spread beyond
the borders of Russia and new players will be involved into it. This
is the worst-case scenario but it is possible to prevent yet so far.
First, on the part of the federal authorities there should not be an
excessively harsh response towards Chechnya in general because
introduction of additional troops will only play up to the
terrorists. Second, it is necessary to prevent transition of the
conflict to the everyday level, to hinder the hatred of the Ossetians
to the neighbors, to prevent pogroms and organization of armed
self-defense detachments that may start retaliatory raids.