Russian terror strike talk seen worrying Georgia
By Mark Trevelyan, Security Correspondent

Reuters
Sept 8 2004

BERLIN, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Comments from a top general that Russia will
pre-emptively strike “terrorist bases” anywhere in the world will send
a shiver of alarm through former Soviet republics, especially Georgia.

Western analysts said Wednesday’s remarks from Chief of Staff Yuri
Baluevsky carried echoes of the U.S. doctrine in the “war on terror”
of countering threats by launching first strikes, instead of waiting
to be attacked.

But they said Russia’s sharply limited global reach meant the general’s
warning — days after a bloody hostage siege by militants demanding
Chechen independence — would apply in practice to former Soviet
republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia which Moscow still regards
as its sphere of influence.

Beyond that zone, Russia could not launch full-scale military action,
although it might attempt hits on individual militants via operations
like February’s assassination of a prominent Chechen separatist
in Qatar.

“In practice this doctrine can only apply to the countries adjacent to
Russia which are not part of a global alliance,” said Jonathan Eyal,
Russia analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

GEORGIA IN FRONT LINE

Georgia would be in the front line, he said, but neighbouring Armenia,
Azerbaijan and the five Central Asian states could also be seen by
Moscow as legitimate theatres for military action.

Tensions between Georgia and Russia are already high over Tbilisi’s
efforts to reassert control of its breakaway region of South Ossetia,
where it recently accused Russian forces of being involved in attacks
on Georgians.

Russia, which maintains two military bases in Georgia, has periodically
accused Tbilisi of allowing Chechen rebels to operate from the Pankisi
Gorge, which borders Chechnya.

Analysts said Moscow might revive such charges in the climate of
heightened tension since last week’s bloodbath in which at least
326 people — around half of them children — were killed after a
three-day siege at a school in Beslan in Russia’s North Caucasus.

“To some extent the military here are looking to see what advantage
they can take from the mood following the attack down in Beslan,”
said Roy Allison of Chatham House, a London-based think-tank.

He said Baluevsky’s comments were “very provocative” and seemed out
of line with the views of President Vladimir Putin.

It was not clear whether Baluevsky was speaking with Putin’s backing
but such a senior general would rarely express such views without at
least the tacit approval of the president.

ISRAELI BACKING

But they met with understanding in Israel, which has its own long
history of pre-emptive and reprisal strikes against militants both
inside its borders and abroad.

“There is no other choice when dealing with terrorism. This is an
international threat that has to be tackled everywhere and anywhere,”
a senior official said.

Asked if Israel would help, he said: “Israel and Russia have strategic
agreements, which include intelligence-sharing, and I am sure this
issue will come up in our next bilateral meeting.”

According to Israeli intelligence, some Chechen separatists have
trained at camps in Lebanon and have ties with the militant Hizbollah
group there.

There are significant Chechen emigre communities in Jordan and Turkey,
and Russian officials say they have frequently intercepted and killed
Turkish fighters in Chechnya.

Eyal said not even the “most mad general in Moscow” would contemplate
a military strike in NATO-member Turkey.

But he said Russia might well attempt further operations abroad like
the assassination of former Chechen leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev in
Qatar in February. A Qatari court convicted two Russian spies of the
murder, in which Moscow denied involvement.

(Additional reporting by Dan Williams in Jerusalem)