GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF BESLAN

Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
15 Sept 04

The terrorist attack on the school in Beslan shocked not only the
Russians but also everyone abroad. Hundreds of innocent people died,
among them children. Among the casualties there were Armenians as
well. Against the humanitarian aspect of the tragedy the geopolitical
consequences have been driven to the background but in the future the
events in Beslan may cause fundamental changes of the situation in the
Caucasus, and not only in the north but in the entire region. In the
given context it is appropriate to consider the possible developments
both in the Caucasus and outside it. Possible developments in the
region may be classified into several groups: aggravation of the
home situation in North Osetia, aggravation of the Oset-Ingush and
Oset-Chechen relationships, aggravation of the relationships between
North Osetia and the central power which is the same as aggravation
of the Oset-Russian relationships, as well as of the situation in
South Osetia. Currently the people of North Osetia protest against
the government of the republic demanding their resignation. We may
suppose that the settlement of this range of problems is not of
major difficulty. However, in this case it is not excluded that
radical forces may come to power in North Osetia. And this may
essentially complicate the situation also in neighbouring countries
of the North Caucasus. The possible complications in the Oset- Ingush
and Oset-Chechen relationships are especially dangerous. After the
events in Beslan about a thousand Osetians attempted to massacre the
Ingush people but were prevented by the law. If similar cases become
more dangerous and cause victims, the situation in the North Caucasus
will aggravate. One of the most dangerous developments for Moscow will
be tensions between North Osetia and the central government of the
Russian Federation. This will be a serious challenge for Russia. Many
people in Russia blame Kremlin for the tragedy in Beslan. Member of
State Duma Vladimir Rizhkov stated directly, â^À^Üif speaking about
the political responsibility, there cannot be two opinions. It is
the government and first of all the president, the leaders of the
Federal Service of Security, the Ministry of Home Affairs, that is to
say those federal agencies of the executive power which, according
to the Constitution and the laws, are to provide our security.â^À^Ý
According to Rizhkov, the president assumed the responsibility to
establish order in the country and provide the security of the people
but this responsibility was not carried out. In addition to this,
the Russian mass media write that in Beslan gunfire was started by
the people involved in the siege and not the terrorists. It is not
excluded that those might have been the local militiamen deployed
around the school since the first day. It is quite possible that one
of them broke down and shot. The terrorist groups are also interested
in accusing Kremlin of organizing the events in Beslan. In such a
situation there may appear feelings of hatred and distrust of the
central government among the population. Distrust may arise in other
regions of the Russian Federation as well. From the geopolitical aspect
one of the most dangerous developments is that distrust of the central
government may grow into distrust of the Russians in general, whereas
the Osetian factor is of exceptional importance for the position of
Moscow in the North Caucasus. Osetians are the only Christians of the
North Caucasian natives, by the way Orthodox Christians. Practically
they were the first to join Russia voluntarily, and in the 19th century
they did not take part in the struggle of the highlanders against the
Russian Empire. Now the Osetians are perhaps the most reliable defence
wall for Russia. The thing is that the Osetian-Russian relationships
have been supported by spiritual and cultural cooperation, which
reduces and sometimes even eliminates the influence of such a strong
factor as the geopolitical situation. But the spiritual and cultural
closeness can be broken up and in such cases the relationships between
peoples become derivatives of the geopolitical situation. The result
of this will be the change of political orientation of the people or
the country. Thus, the political future of the North Caucasus will
be directly related to the developments in North Osetia. Without the
support of the Osetians Moscowâ^À^Ùs position in the North Caucasus
may be shattered. Taking into account the fact that South Caucasus
is gradually getting integrated in the Euroatlantic structures, the
nations of North Caucasus may also change their political orientation
under the influence of the geopolitical situation finding themselves
devoid of any spiritual and cultural closeness. The events of Beslan
may also affect the situation in South Osetia. In an interview
president Putin declared that the borders of North Osetia will be
closed, including the North Osetian section of the state border. But
in this situation the border between South and North Osetia will
appear under lock. This may motivate Georgia to use force against
South Osetia. In this case Kremlin will become very vulnerable. On
the one hand, after such a statement if volunteers from North Osetia
appear in the Georgian-South Osetian conflict area, Moscow may be
accused of sending terrorists to Georgia. On the other hand, if the
situation in South Osetia becomes tense, and North Osetia is not able
to help their brothers, they will again blame Moscow. In this context
it is worthwhile to pay attention to the September 4, 2004 address
of Vladimir Putin. He made it clear that the terrorist actions are
directly related to foreign forces which are interested in weakening
Russia. By the way, he mentioned that the Russian Federation is not
protected either from the East or from the West. Here the Russian
president exactly meant the political and not the geographic notions
of â^À^ÜEastâ^À^Ý and â^À^ÜWestâ^À^Ý . The main suspicion falls
on either Europe or the USA but taking into account the fact that
the United States is currently the only superpower in the world,
and according to the American top officials, they have interests in
any region of the Earth, therefore the USA is meant. Is that Moscow
is challenging Washington? But in this case Moscow should have won
over the protection of some player on the arena. Europe, especially
Germany and France would hardly enter confrontation with the USA for
the sake of Russia. Maybe China will help him? Strange though it may
seem, Putin himself excluded this possibility in his address when he
mentioned the fact of Russiaâ^À^Ùs not being protected from the East as
well. If it is merely the Near East, the threat from there is usually
connected with terrorism and Islamic extremism. If it is the Far East,
the situation here is quite different. The insecurity of Russia in
this direction is caused by the fears of ethnic and economic intrusion
of the Chinese into the vast areas of the Far East and Siberia. Now
already China is the chief trade companion of most regions of the Far
East and Siberia, and it seems that China is not against having its
share either. Thus, it turns out that Kremlin transforms the struggle
against international terrorism into a geopolitical competition with
the leading centers of global politics thereby practically remaining
without a strong ally. Of course, a country such as Russia may be
able to solve many questions alone but only having order inside the
country. As Putin stated in his address, the most important task is
the mobilization of the nation against the common threat. However,
the national mobilization cannot be confined to showing patriotic
films and mass actions of unity, which may have a short-lasting
effect merely, especially among todayâ^À^Ùs Russian youth. First of
all it is necessary to restore the social unity as presently there
is an enormous gap between the rich and the poor. This first of all
requires an overall struggle against corruption. Putin mentioned
nothing on this in his address. However, not everything said becomes
a reality and not everything done is spoken about. Therefore, if
soon a war is declared against corruption in the Russian Federation,
it will mean that Beslan was a breakpoint in the Russian policy.

DAVIT BABAYAN.
15-09-2004