Is Javakhq facing new problems?

By Sergey Minassian

Yerkir/am
September 17, 2004

In the context of recent tensions in Russian-Georgian relations the
problems of Armenians in Javakhq continues to attract public interest
because of the geopolitical significance of the region and existence
of a Russian militarybase there. The developments in South Ossetia
increase the possibility of the 62nd Russian military base becoming an
additional source of tension in Georgia.

Increased tensions can results in military actions in Javakheti which
can complicate the Armenian-Georgian relations. The analysis of
statements and actions of various geopolitical actors in the Caucasus
as well as the information presented in the media suggest two possible
scenarios of further developments. As a result of these developments
the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki can be involved in military
actions which can have serious implications for the Armenian
population in Javakheti and the entire region in general.

The first scenario suggests that Russia itself can use the 62nd
military base to create instability and clashes in Javakheti with
participation of the local Armenian population. Further, under the
cover of `protecting the local Armenian population’ the 62nd military
base will change its tacticsand will actively engage in military
actions.

The majority of the soldiers serving at the base are Armenian and they
will not be able to stay away from any kind of
developments. Alternatively, the Russian military base can be
transformed into some kind of peacekeeping force aimed at the
preservation of stability and security in the context of the absence
of any other forces to separate the Armenians and Georgians.

There have been similar incidents in the history of post-Soviet
Georgia. The 1992 Agreements signed in Dagomis granted the status of
peacekeeping force to the Russian military troops in South Ossetia
thus legalizing the status quo established in one of Georgia’s former
autonomous regions. In this way, Tbilisi lost control over those
territories for many years.

Besides, Russians can prolong the status of peacekeeping forces in
Javakheti as long as they wish. The withdrawal of the 62nd Russian
military base from the Georgian territory is thus being left out of
the agenda. Even though this scenario seems a little unrealistic it is
nor completely from the sphere of science fiction because certain
forces within the Russian military-political elite are interested in
it.

The author holds Candidate’s degree in History and is the head of the
Research Center on Regional Security and South Caucasus Integration,
Russian-Armenian (Slavic) University.