Turkish optimism?

By Aram Ananian

Yerkir/am
September 17, 2004

Gunter Verheugen , EU Commissioner on Enlargement visited Turkey last
week. The Commissioner’s introductory visit will have a significant
impact on the launch of accession talks for Turkey and the country’s
report on progress in proceeding with EU membership.

Verheugen ‘s visit reminds of Gogol’s `Inspectorâ=80=9D – on the one
hand, the EU Commissioner is trying to make general statements and put
forward neutral arguments to make the Turks understand that they still
have a long way to go before they can become EU member.

The Turks, in their turn, are trying to convince Europe that they have
already done their best to meet the Copenhagen criteria for EU
membership.

Verheugen ‘s visit included meetings with public officials,
representatives of the civil society, local authorities in the regions
and the population.

The first procedural meetings were held with prime-minister Erdogan
and foreign minister Gull. At these meetings, Verheugen reaffirmed his
support for Turkey’s membership in the EU, Turkish newspaper
`Akshamâ=80=9D states. After the meeting with Erdogan, the
Commissioner pointed out that Turkey has made significant
progress. Nevertheless, Verheugen also stated that Turkey needs time
to complete the reforms necessary for jopining the EU.

Interestingly, Verheugen visited Diarbekir and Izmir where he met
governor Nusret Miroglu, mayor Osman Baydemir as well as member of
democratic party, ethnic Kurd ex-deputy Leila Zana who is currently
under home detention.

Diyarbakir has a large Kurdish population and the EU Commissioner had
a good opportunity of getting a better understanding of the problems
the Kurds are facing especially that a meeting with the
representatives of local NGOâ=80=99s was scheduled during the visit.

Minority issues are most likely to be the core issue during the
accession talks. Even though Turkey has tried to meet some of the
Copenhagen criteriait has neglected minority issues. Turkish newspaper
Zaman has quoted Verheugenas saying that minority issues will be
reflected in the report. Verheugen stated Turkey still has a lot to do
in this sphere.

During his visit, Verheugen has pointed to the necessity of granting
the Kurds more comprehensive cultural and social rights. This means
that Turkeysimply overlooks the problems of religious minorities. The
Turkish public administration machine is having problems with
adjusting to the realities and norms accepted in the civilized
world. The official Ankara has not changed its approach of neglecting
problems it does not want to address.

According to Turkish newspaper sources, Verheugen discussed accession
issues with representatives of NGO’s in Diyarbakir . He also visited a
Kurdish village. Answering the journalists’ questions at Ataturk
airport inIstanbul, Verheugen called the Turkish government to pay
more attention to the situation in South-Eastern Anatolia specifically
ensuring more comprehensive cultural rights for the Kurds and
undertaking the necessary measures for economic development of the
region.

Verheugen stated that despite some drawbacks, Turkey has accomplished
political reforms and is now trying to consolidate them. One of the
most important issues in the Turkish progress report is the creation
of a Christian spiritual lyceum.

Strange enough, the issue is on the agenda of Turkey’s Security
Council. In other words, Turkey believes that the spiritual education
of the religious leaders of minorities can seriously threaten Turkey’s
national security.

According to Turkish newspaper sources, Verheugen has also met with
the representatives of religious minorities. Verheugen has expressed
his satisfaction with Turkey’s efforts to join the EU noting that the
progress report will be objective and unbiased. He noted that
religious freedom will necessarily be included in Turkey’s progress
report.

The Turkish press has broadly addressed the activities of a joint
Independent Committee on Turkey established by the British Council and
Open Society Institute. This Committee includes ex-heads of state,
foreign ministers, EU Commissioners and other high-ranked officials.

The Committee’s publication of a report on Turkey’s accession to the
EU coincided with Verheugen ‘s visit. The report stated that
accessiontalks with Turkey can start only after it has met the
Copenhagen criteria. The Committee members stated that it is necessary
to clarify the issue of accession negotiations with Turkey since
otherwise the EU will lose Turkey’s trust.

The Committee has noted that the EU has to treat Turkey in an unbiased
and respectful way. The report was presented by Finish ex-president
Marti Ahtisaari. He stated that a `silent revolution’ has taken place
in Turkey in the last few years driven by the determination to join
the EU.

What are Turkey’s real chances of joining the EU? Turkish
newspaper`Radical’ concludes its analysis of the question by stating
that Turkey’s comparative advantage is its relatively young
population, the geographical location and the strong army.

Another optimistic article published in `Radical’ newspaperassures
that the report to be published by the EU Commission will finally
clarify the date for launching the accession negotiations. The
newspaper’s optimism derives from Verheugen ‘s assurance that the
report to be presented to the Commission will be unbiased. Turks seem
to really believe that their country is European and that they are
facing double standards when the issue comes to the country’s
membership in the European Union.

The newspaper quotes foreign minister Gull’s statement that he is
expecting a `great decision’ from Europe and that Turkey is even more
interested in consistency in implementing reforms than Europe.

A similar opinion has been expressed in all the major Turkish
newspapers. Turkey’s ex-foreign minister Ilter Turkman has pointed
out that minority issues are among Europe’s top priorities. He noted
that even though Greeceis formally supporting Turkey’s membership in
the EU, it is playing a double game by constantly bringing up the
issue of the property of religious organizations, spiritual centers
and the Orthodox church.

Mehmed Ali Birand, an experienced journalist, noted that the European
officials’ visits do not mean anything since they promise to start
accession talks while at the same time stating that the start of the
accession talks does not mean membership. Their position is that
Turkey can become EU member in 10-15 years. Finally, the European
officials state that even 15 years is not enough for Turkey.

This means that some segments of the Turkish society have come to
understand that Brussels is not satisfied with Turkey’s efforts to
join the EU. This can potentially result in two developments. The less
likely scenario is that Turkey will try to improve its performance in
terms of democratic reforms.

The other option is that the Turks will get tired of efforts to join
the EU and will adjust to a compromise which will not mean membership
in the EU but some kind of special relations with Europe (for instance
a more comprehensive customs union).

Publications in other Turkish newspapers reveal that there are some
new pre-conditions for Turkey’s membership including the addressing
theissues of unemployment, stopping emigration from South-Eastern
Anatolia, legal regulation of adultery and creation of customs union
with Cyprus.

In other words, Europe is taking its time with Turkey’s membership.
Interestingly, the French and German media coverage of Verheugen
‘svisit to Turkey was more pessimistic than the publications in the
Turkish media.

We believe the report to be presented to the European Commission will
be positive but not as optimistic as the Turks would like to see
it. The Commission will probably decide to address the launch of the
accession talks next year.