‘Russian formula’ contradicts Azerbaijan’s interests

AzerNews
23 Sept 04

Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents held meetings in Astana,
Kazakhstan within the summit of the CIS heads of state last
Wednesday. The first meeting was attended by the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Steven Mann (USA) and Henry
Jacolin (France), who informed the two leaders of the work recently
done in this area.

The Russian co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov told journalists after the
meeting that the two presidents discussed issues agreed upon in Prague
earlier. “One of the proposals made concerns liberation of regions
adjacent to Upper Garabagh, the return of displaced persons home and
ensuring their security.” Baku and Yerevan are now expected to forward
their proposals to the co-chairs which will outline the future
activity of the OSCE MG. “The ideas discussed by the presidents are
within the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity”,Merzlyakov
said.

The Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders held three-hour talks in private
followed by a trilateral meeting attended by Russian President
Vladimir Putin. President Ilham Aliyev gave a positive assessment to
the meeting. “I believe that the meetings of the two countries’
foreign ministers held on a permanent basis with participation of the
(OSCE) Minsk Group are positive.” Aliyev admitted that the two
presidents cannot say anything specific as to what they had discussed
behind closed doors. “We always have to confine ourselves to
verygeneral phrases, and there will be no exception today, because the
process is extremely important.” The Armenian leader Robert Kocharian
told journalists that the meeting was ‘quite interesting’ and that the
presidents have clarified certain positions and standpoints. “Now we
have to take time to find out where we stand”, he said. The process of
negotiations concerning the resolution of the Upper Garabagh conflict
is “underway,” Kocharian said. He admitted, however, that “we can’t
boast of anything special.” The Armenian President said that the two
sides approach the dialogue “with patience”. “We are discussing
complex problems that we have inherited”, he said. Russian President
Vladimir Putinassessed the meeting as a step forward and expressed his
confidence that the two countries’ presidents will arrive at common
decision on the issue. Influential Russia media reported that the
talks, which besides the conflicting sides, involve the Russian
President, are more efficient. Azeri pundits say that the so-called
“Russian formula” of the conflict settlement does not meet the
country’s interests at all, as it envisions withdrawal of Armenian
troops from Azerbaijan’s territories adjacent to Upper Garabagh in
exchange for referendums on the status of both Garabagh alone and
throughout the country. Local experts reasonably believe that the
outcome of a separate referendum in Upper Garabagh will be far from
authentic. Moreover, these results, no matter how turn out, would not
have any political consequences or force, as the issue of altering
Azerbaijan’s borders is the country’s own prerogative. The status of
Upper Garabagh can be determined only through a referendum held all
over Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the presence of the Russian formula is
more favorable than the stalling peace talks that have persisted for
over a decade. It is for this reason that President Ilham Aliyev said
that any course of developments in this direction could promote
conflict settlement.

Opinion Moscow considers the talks held by the Azerbaijani, Armenian
and Russian Pesidents as “useful and constructive”, Russian
President’s administration spokesman said following the
negotiations. “It is evident that the parties are ready to continue
dialogue and search for a compromise”. It is common knowledge that
this is an extremely complex and persistent problem, and its
resolution will take time, serious efforts and mutual concessions,
Russian media reported. “Aliyev and Kocharian aim to seek exclusively
political ways of untangling the Garabagh problem”, the same Russian
official said and pointed out that the two presidents confirmed
“observance of ceasefire obligations”. “Such intentions give a hope
that the conflict will be done away with despite existing problems.”
Russia, along with the two other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group,
USA and France, is ready to provide all the necessary assistance in
this area. “Russia is ready to support a conflict settlement that
would suit all sides involved, and, if necessary, act as a guarantor
for mutually acceptable agreements. Such an approach was approved by
the parties”, the Russian representative added. Moscow believes that
the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents should “agree on their own”,
but Russia “can contribute to developing and deepening the dialogue”
between Baku and Yerevan. Russia certainly understands that the
results of two referendums would be contrary to each other and no
miracle will take place, as residents of Garabagh will vote for its
independence, while voters in Azerbaijan – for its return to Baku’s
control. Nonetheless, Russian politicians believe that the start of
the conflict settlement process will most likely relieve tensions
between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moreover, Russia will assert its
desired role of becoming a key peacemaker in the conflict.