KEEPING PRESENT BALANCE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS IS VITAL

Azg/am
8 Oct 04

Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, informed Reuters that the
unsolved Nagorno Karabakh issue endangers situation in the Caucasus,
and Azerbaijan will not wait too long for the conflict settlement with
Armenia, Armenpress news agency informs. It is clear that Azerbaijan
will take the path of war instead of waiting.

The oil factor stands behind the Azeri president’s brave
statements. Tofik Julfugarov, former foreign minister of Azerbaijan,
in his turn, informed Zerkalo newspaper that Armenia might use the US
elections to provoke a war. “In the present stage authorities has to
take concrete and wide-ranging steps to defend Azerbaijan”, Julfugarov
declared.

Meanwhile, PINK, an American analytical center, concludes: “The
present situation in Karabakh will persist even longer as Yerevan will
not accept any of the offered solutions”. Basing on this conclusion,
Turkish Eni Musafat newspaper claims that Azerbaijan will not be able
to return Karabakh during president Aliyev’s tenure.

Even if Azerbaijan saves up money on oil to arm the nation against
Armenians, it will not mean that they can use the weapons as they like
because all world powers specify the purpose of the sold arm. For
instance, while selling modern army helicopters to Turkey, the US
forbade them to use it against the PKK.

Thus, even if Azerbaijan manages to accumulate money and get armed,
then it will need a permission of higher instance. He will get the
permission only if the military balance between rival Russia and
America in the region is lost.

In the current circumstances, when Russia is saving strength for
regaining positions in the South Caucasus and the US is having
troubles in Afghanistan and Iraq, and facing presidential elections,
one can hardly believed that they will go for shaking military balance
in the region.

It is vital to preserve the present situation in Nagorno Karabakh in
order to keep the balance in the South Caucasus unshaken. From this
perspective, political developments in South Ossetia and the US’s and
Russia’s response to them are important. It is interesting that
the USA, who strongly opposed to Russia’ s tough position in case of
Ajaria, tolerated Russia’s even tougherposition in South
Ossetia. Thus, we may presume that the Russian-US tendencies of
peacekeeping in the South Caucasus will develop and Azeri’s threatsof
a new war will not hold water.

By Hakob Chakrian