Russia to increase military presence in Central Asia, Caucasus
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow
15 Oct 04
The Russian military has changed its policy on Central Asia and the
Caucasus and is stepping up its presence there in response to increased
US military aid to the region, the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya
Gazeta said on 15 October. Russia is formally opening a military
base in Tajikistan on 17 October, and expects to keep its troops in
Georgia for at least another seven years. The following is the text
of article by Vladimir Mukhin, “The RF Defence Ministry will increase
its influence in the near abroad”, published in the Russian newspaper
Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 15 October; subheadings inserted editorially:
The military is laying stress on bases in Central Asia and the
Trans-Caucasus.
Russia’s military department has recently been looking at decisions
reached earlier on the fate of military contingents stationed
abroad. This is taking place against the background of another series
of troop reductions and reforms. Along with this, it is notable that
the garrisons in the near abroad [republics of the former Soviet Union]
are not being significantly reduced. They are being strengthened with
new aviation and other combat-capable, high-tech subunits (precision
artillery, communications, intelligence, etc) at the same time.
We note that there are aviation subunits in all the Russian troop
contingents stationed abroad.
In the opinion of observers, strengthening the Russian presence in
the CIS countries goes against what has been noted earlier. Thus,
a year ago the chief of General Staff at the time, Gen Army Anatoliy
Kvashnin, signed a directive in which military garrisons on Georgian
territory were to be significantly reduced in 2004. The same directive
proposed reducing the numbers of the 201st Motorized-Rifle Division
in Tajikistan, which on Sunday [17 October] will receive the status of
a military base. The same document proposed reducing the peacekeeping
subunit in the Dniester Region.
Military aid to Georgia
But nothing outlined by Kvashnin has been carried out yet. Because
of problems with removing the munitions of the 14th Soviet Army, the
Russian “blue helmets” will remain in Tiraspol for at least another
year. The new chief of General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed
Forces, Yuriy Baluyevskiy, is preparing another directive which
should cancel Kvashnin’s decision to reduce the Tbilisi garrison,
including the dissolution of the 376th Military Clinical Hospital
of Group of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus. Troops are being
rotated and special subunits (intelligence, communications, etc)
are being updated in Armenia. Apparently, the military subunits in
Georgia will also be updated and modernized. With all its problems,
Tbilisi is interested in Russia giving help in setting up the Georgian
Army. Of course, relations between Moscow and Tbilisi are now complex,
but the RF Ministry of Defence is certain that the status of the Group
of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus will allow Russian troops
to remain in Georgia for a minimum of another seven years. We note
that on 7-8 October, the deputy commander-in-chief of the Ground
Troops, Lt-Gen Georgiy Yevnevich, arrived in Tbilisi. In addition
to peacekeeping issues, he discussed with Georgian Defence Minister
Georgiy Baramidze the prospects of the protocol signed in August by
the heads of the military departments of the two countries, in which
Russia is obligated to train military cadres for the Georgian Army
and cooperate in the military-technical sphere.
It is these aspects that will be discussed at the next session
of the committee drawing up a framework agreement between Russia
and Georgia. According to information from military sources, the
committee session will take place at the end of October. The RF
Defence Ministry does not doubt that Tbilisi will make concessions
if Moscow obligates itself to provide military aid not only in
deliveries, but in modernizing the Georgian Army. “There is a certain
understanding about these issues on the Georgian side,” commented
Russian military-diplomatic sources on the upcoming negotiations.
Base in Tajikistan
In regard to the 201st Division, this will receive the status of
a Russian military base on 17 October. For reasons of economy,
the division is currently not manned with contract servicemen, but
with conscripts. The commander of the 5th Army of the RF Air Force,
stationed in the Volga-Urals Military District, Lt-Gen Yevgeniy
Yuryev, said that in addition to transforming the 201st Division
into a military base, the aviation component will be significantly
strengthened. “I hope that at the end of October a final decision
will be made on the place for stationing this grouping,” concluded
Yuryev. In exchange for the military base, Dushanbe wants increases
in Russian investment, military aid, etc. Moscow is still bargaining,
but in the opinion of experts, is ready to make concessions.
A well-known ethno-political analyst, academician of the Academy of
Military Sciences Col Vladimir Popov told NG that the United States
and NATO are presently increasing their military groupings in Central
Asia and also plan to strengthen them in the Caucasus and Middle and
Near East. “The United States plans to spend 500m dollars in 2005 on
military support alone for the regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq. The
armed forces of Georgia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan will receive 20m
dollars each. The other former republics of the USSR will receive a
little less. Moscow must react, and it is doing this by strengthening
its military bases in CIS territory,” the military analyst commented
on the situation.