Turkey has no intention to change

Yerkir/am
October 22, 2004

If Turkey enters the EU the percentage share of EUâ~@~Ys Muslim
population will increase from 2% to 20%. Public opinion polls show
that 75% of EU population is against Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership in the
Union. Is it possible that Turkey will change after it enters the
European Union? How will Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership affect the EU? How
will it affect Armenia? We interviewed ARF Boardâ~@~Ys officer in
charge of political affairs Kiro Manoyan.

KM: The assumption that Turkey will change after EU membership is
absolutely wrong. And EU shares this position. Europe will not accept
Turkey until it changes. The opinions voiced in Armenia that Turkey
will change once it becomes E U member are absolutely ungrounded. If
Turkey does not change before EU accession and enters the Union as
it is now, I think the EU itself will change.

Once Turkey enters the EU there will be far less leverages to influence
it because then it will become an equal member, even more than equal
because in terms of the population, Turkey will be the second largest
EU member after Germany. This means that it will have the corresponding
influence at all levels of EU decision making. In other words, once
it is accepted into the Union Turkey will have no incentives and
reasons to change.

The European Commission report states that even if accession
negotiations with Turkey are launched, the final outcome will
not necessarily be membership in the EU. These negotiations can be
suspended at any time if Turkey deviates from the standards prescribed
by the EU. All this shows that Turkey will have to change before it
can be considered for membership.

Q: What has Turkey done so far in this respect? Is the EU likely
to overlook certain issues and make a political decision based on
its interests?

A: It is obvious that EU decisions do have political implications. The
European Commission report that recommended to launch accession
negotiations with Turkey stated that Turkey had fulfilled certain
requirements in terms of legal reforms but the adopted laws arenâ~@~Yt
properly implemented.

In other words, the decision to launch accession negotiations was based
on a significant reservation. As to the recent law adopted in Turkey
criminalizing any mentioning of the Armenian Genocide or withdrawal
of troops from Cyprus, the European Commission report stated that it
is necessary to amend this law.

These issues will be clarified when the European Council makes its
final decision at the EU Summit on December 17. There is another
approach that holds that irrespective of how much Turkey changes it
cannot enter the European Union because it has a completely different
culture and represents a different civilization.

Q: Viewed from this perspective, how will Turkeyâ~@~Ys accession to
the EU affect the European civilization?

A: Those who are against Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership put forward several
issues â~@~S civilizational and cultural differences, economic
problems, etc. Even if we imagine for a second that one day Turkey
will meet all the requirements in terms of its political system and
will join the EU, it will be a huge burden for the union from the
financial and economic perspectives because Turkeyâ~@~Ys economy lags
far behind the economies of other EU member states.

The EU will have to allocate money paid by its taxpayers to support
the Turkish economy and assist it to reach the economic development
level of the EU members. On the other hand, Turkish citizens will
get access to EU member states. They will flood the European labor
market and will be able to influence the policies of EU member states.

Q: Is the opinion that Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership in the EU is favorable
for Armenia grounded? How can Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership in the European
Union affect recognition of the Armenian Genocide, resolution of
Nagorno Karabagh conflict and the development of the Armenian-Turkish
relations?

A: First of all, as I already mentioned, there are no grounds for
expecting Turkey to change after it joins the EU. The opinion holds
that Turkey will change, and Armenia will be bordering the European
Union. I think itâ~@~Ys too early to speak about this.

It is possible that the EU will accept Turkey for different reasons
without further insisting on accomplishing changes in that country. In
this case I think Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership will not have any favorable
aspects for Armenia because in this case, Turkey will no longer have
any reasons for taking Armenia seriously.

Even the most optimistically minded observers believe that Turkeyâ~@~Ys
membership in the EU is a matter of at least one decade. If Turkey
persists with its current position on Armenia and the Armenians,
I think the EU will find itself in a somewhat awkward position by
accepting this country. The EU hopes that Turkeyâ~@~Ys membership in
the Union will have a positive impact in terms of interaction with the
South Caucasus and establishing the EUâ~@~Ys influence in this region.

But at the same time, the EU wants Turkey to settle its problems
with Armenia, to reconcile with its history and to stop the blockade
of Armenia. In other words, EU understands that in order to have any
positive potential for the Union Turkey has to normalize its relations
with Armenia.

One thing is clear â~@~S once Turkey joins the EU it will be very
difficult to influence it. At the same time, the major factor in this
respect is USAâ~@~Ys pressure to accept Turkey into the EU in order
to show to the Muslim world that it is possible to be Muslim while
at the same time being progressive.

The Turkish president noted in response to the American presidentâ~@~Ys
remark that US views Turkey as moderate Islamic country that Turkey
is not an Islamic but a secular state. The Americans and Europeans
do not seem to understand this approach. It is possible that the
Islamic forces within Turkey will turn to the Islamic world if Europe
rejects Turkey.

Interview by Karine Mangassarian

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