Azerbaijan’s president about to be tested by challenges he inherited
By Andrew Jack
FT
October 30 2004
The hole from theearring that he wore in more carefree times is still
visible in his left ear, but in the past year Ilham Aliev has taken
on the more sober appearance befitting his new role as president
of Azerbaijan.
In his office a portrait of his father, the patriarch Heydar who ruled
over the country in the South Cauc-asus for a decade until his death
last year, looks out sternly, as it does in strategic points across
the capital Baku and the rest of the country.
The principal question today is how far Mr Aliev junior, a fluent
English speaker, is able to assume and modify the legacy of his
father, and how far he remains a captive to the previous powerful
establishment, which remains largely in place.
Like his counterparts in the region, he stresses the challenges he
inherited. “From the time of independence, we had one of the most
difficult situations among the states of the former Soviet Union,”
he says. “The country was completely disintegrating. There was civil
war, domestic problems, elements of chaos and crisis.”
Mr Aliev is operating today against the backdrop of an enlarging
European Union and Nato, however, and his self-professed foreign policy
priority to “integrate into European and euro-atlantic structures”.
Corruption, human rights abuses and democratic restrictions are all
attracting increased international scrutiny as a result.
“Of course there is a lot to be improved,” he says.
“Azerbaijan is a country in transition. Our objective is creating a
normal, pluralistic, democratic country. But it’s very difficult to
create civil society. We need economic growth and education. We must
not expect a miracle, but we have made a lot of positive steps.”
He brushes aside sugg-estions that the state is pressuring print media,
while saying that his min-isters and government officials are within
their rights to pursue publications for libel, in cases that have
proved a powerful blow to local journalists.
He also stresses that he has recently released a group of “so-called
political prisoners”, although last week seven other rival politicians
were convicted. Mr Aliev accuses his opponents of being involved in
violence – and of being those who imposed censorship and tension when
in power at the start of the 1990s.
“We need a normal, civilised relationship between different forces,
but we will never tolerate violence,” he says, adding that he easily
won the election despite international criticism of voting.
He has recently spent time with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin,
and the two men discussed the single most important issue confronting
Mr Aliev: the unresolved conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, the mountain-ous
western zone occupied by Armenia since a ceasefire in 1994.
“Azerbaijan will never compromise its territorial integrity,” he says.
“We are ready to talk about compromises, but outside this issue. We
will not give independence to Nagorno Karabakh or allow it to become
part of Armenia.”
At least in public, he shows little sign of fresh concessions on the
subject, demanding Armenian military withdrawal from the region and
seven surrounding districts that they have occupied, and the return
of almost 1m Azerbaijanis driven out by the conflict.
In exchange, he says he is willing to offer “security guarantees”
for the Armenians left in Nargono Karabakh and “the highest possible
autonomy”.
Despite the challenges, geography has also handed Azerbaijan
significant natural resources. With the strategic Baku-Ceyhan pipeline
set to begin piping local oil for export next summer, and gas output
soon to grow sharply, Mr Aliev faces the prospects of a substantial
boost in government revenues soon.
If he meets his pledge to use the money transparently and to help
kickstart broader economic diversification and reform, he could yet
live up to his father’s legacy. If not, he risks being overshadowed
by it.