The Messenger

Georgia’s English Language Daily

Thursday, November 4, 2004, #210 (0734)

Georgia’s bargaining chip

On Monday and Tuesday Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze visited
Moscow in an additional attempt to clarify the relationship between the
two countries. She demanded that Russia take “concrete steps” relating
to its oft-stated support of Georgian territorial integrity, but Moscow
officials replied that it was Georgia which had failed to take concrete
steps on previously agreed issues.

Georgian-Russian relations are of vital importance to Georgia, not least
because of the role Russia plays in Georgia’s frozen conflicts in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Burjanadze stressed that as long as
Georgian-Russian relations do not improve, all attempts to resolve
current problems are pointless.

But despite the speaker’s best attempts to come to an agreement with the
Russian side, there was little progress made during her visit. “The
sides have not advanced yet,” Sakartvelos Respublika quotes Secretary of
the Russian Security Council Igot Ivanov as saying after his meeting
with Burjanadze.

Particularly on the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there was
little sign that Moscow is about to change its stance. Burjanadze stated
categorically that Russia must fulfill its promises and must deny the
separatist regimes its support, but although Russian Minister of Foreign
Affairs Sergei Lavrov promised that Russia would actively support the
resolution of the conflicts, his statement merely echoed many other
similar declarations over the years – declarations that have rarely been
followed up by “concrete steps.”

Lavrov underlined the importance of dialogue between the sides, saying
“the ‘frozen’ conflicts in Georgia must not be allowed to become ‘hot,'”
but realistically there seems little possibility of productive dialogue
leading to a resolution of the conflicts with Russia as mediator. There
is an ongoing need for a greater internationalization of the peace
process, something to which Moscow remains opposed.

Not only is international mediation required in the negotiation process,
but international peacekeepers on the ground as well. In South Ossetia,
weapons and paramilitaries continue to move freely into the separatist
republic, while shootings towards ethnically Georgian villages have not
diminished. The Russian peacekeepers seem powerless to prevent this,
suggesting the need for the bolstering of its peacekeeping forces with
troops from other countries. However, to achieve this, Georgia must not
only persuade Moscow and Tskhinvali to accept other peacekeepers, but
other countries to provide them.

Abkhazia’s conflict with Georgia has, meanwhile, taken a backseat to
internal conflict following the disputed October 3 presidential
elections, and there is ongoing concern that the situation could further
destabilize, despite the meeting this week in Moscow of the CEC-declared
winner Sergey Baghapshi and Moscow’s favored candidate, former prime
minister Raul Khadjimba.

Burjanadze expressed the Georgian government’s dissatisfaction with the
meeting in Moscow, and stated that Russia should not call any elections
democratic when two-thirds of the electorate have been exiled; but her
complaints went largely unheard.

Instead, Russian officials’ talks with the speaker of Parliament were
focused on the reopening of rail links between Russia and the Caucasus,
via Abkhazia. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan support this initiative, which
would have a positive economic impact on the economy of the whole South
Caucasus, but the Georgian government is unwilling to agree to the
restoration of the Tbilisi-Sokhumi section of the line without agreement
to the return of Georgian refugees to the Abkhaz district of Gali.

The Georgian side remains distinctly displeased that Russia reopened the
Rusisia-Abkhazia leg of the railway in September, arguing that in doing
so it violated the 2002 Sochi agreement signed by Putin and
Shevardnadze, which envisaged the restoration of the railway happening
simultaneously with the return of refugees. Nevertheless, Prime Minister
Zurab Zhvania announced on Monday that he had agreed in principle to the
restoration of the railway, adding however that this is currently
impossible owing to the instability in Abkhazia.

Aside from the issue of refugees, the Georgian government is in a
quandary regarding the railway, because while it would provide a
significant boost to the Georgian economy (it has been calculated that
it could add as much as USD 200 million to the Georgian budget), the
railway could have a corresponding effect on the Abkhaz economy, perhaps
decreasing even further the possibility of Abkhazia’s reintegration with
Georgia. the government fears further that the rail link might create
further problems, similar to those posed by the Roki tunnel connecting
North with South Ossetia.

The railway is an important bargaining chip for Georgia, as its
restoration would benefit both Russia and Russia’s strategic partner
Armenia. The government will be unwilling to play it without a
significant return, not least because other bargaining chips are few and
far between.

—