Putin forges new ties with former republics
By Steven Lee Myers

Seattle Times
Nov 14 2004

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin is not subtle.

As the presidential campaign climaxed late last month in Ukraine, a
country once dominated by Russia’s czars and commissars but now free
to choose its own way, Putin went to Kiev for three days of
politicking on behalf of the candidate who promised to strengthen
bonds with Moscow.

That candidate came in a close second to one advocating closer ties
to Europe — another way of calling for greater independence from its
big neighbor. On Friday, barely a week ahead of the runoff, Putin was
in Ukraine again.

In the language of international diplomacy this is known as
interfering in another country’s internal affairs. For Putin,
however, it is an increasingly typical feature of what might be
called Russia’s soft imperialism.

>>From the edges of a new Europe to the Caucasus to Central Asia, Putin
is wielding Russia’s considerable resources — and his personal clout
— to keep those countries in what Russians call the “near abroad”
under the sway, if not outright domination, of the Kremlin.

He has used Russia’s economic levers — above all, its oil and gas,
often sold at discounts — to bind its neighbors into an ever tighter
dependency. He has countered the U.S. military buildup in Central
Asia after the Sept. 11 attacks with a buildup of Russian forces in
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Separatist regions abetted

In Moldova and Georgia, Russia has openly abetted separatist regions
by refusing to keep its commitments to withdraw its troops. In
Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, it has also granted Russian
citizenship to thousands who, technically, are citizens of other
countries, an act that makes them candidates for the special
attention of Kremlin diplomacy.

Putin is not rebuilding the Soviet Union. But he is trying to forge
an economic, social and military facsimile, with Moscow again at the
core, in all but three of its former republics. The notable
exceptions are the Baltic nations, which irrevocably severed the old
chains and now belong to NATO and the European Union.

Elsewhere, despite new national identities that took root after the
Soviet collapse, he appears to be succeeding.

“Russia is on its way to recover the degree of soft power the
U.S.S.R. once enjoyed in its immediate sphere of influence,” Fiona
Hill, an expert with the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent
study for the Foreign Policy Center in London, referring to the
economic power and cultural influence that once accompanied the far
harder power of the troops and security apparatus that controlled the
Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

Protecting interests

It is no surprise that Putin, like any leader, would consider it his
right to protect what he sees as the country’s interests in its
extensive back yard, especially now that the United States, the
European Union, China and others are actively pursuing their own
business and strategic interests there.

But some of his policies and pronouncements have revived fears of
Russia’s long shadow. In Poland, a former Soviet satellite, a scandal
has erupted over allegations of bribery and espionage involving a
Russian agent and the country’s largest oil company.

“We are facing a restoration of the Russian empire through economic
means,” Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, the former Polish chief of
intelligence, told a parliamentary inquiry last month.

Indeed, the rebound of Russia’s economy after the financial crisis of
1998 has given Putin new leverage with which to counter the economic
and political incentives the West is offering Ukraine, Georgia,
Armenia, Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia to lure them
out of Moscow’s embrace.

Russia has the advantage of proximity and old ties, as well as
linguistic bonds, because Russian remains the language of commerce
and diplomacy throughout the region. Even more important, it has oil
and gas.

As Stephen O’Sullivan, the head of research at the United Financial
Group in Moscow, put it, “Oil and gas is what makes Russia important
to a lot of the world.”

Reclaiming status

Putin, who not long ago called the Soviet collapse a “national
tragedy,” is clearly eager to reclaim for Russia some of its status
as a superpower. And there is more to it than economics. The
perceived losses of the Baltics and, more recently, of Georgia have
been treated in Russia as a blow to national prestige.

That is what has made the outcome of Ukraine’s election so evidently
vital to Putin. Despite gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine retains
deep ties to Russia because it spent centuries under Moscow’s rule.
Many Ukrainians are ethnic Russians.

Now, President Leonid Kuchma’s decision to step down after 10 years
has opened up a fiercely contested fight over the country’s future.
Kuchma himself zigzagged between Russia and the West, but he has
thrown his support to Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who has made
it clear he feels the country’s interests lie to the east.

And that makes Yanukovich the candidate favored by Putin over Victor
Yushchenko, who wants to balance trade with Russia with expanded ties
to Ukraine’s European neighbors.

“This election is not about Yushchenko or Yanukovich or even
Ukraine,” Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the European Center for
International Studies in Kiev, said in an interview after the first
round of voting. “It’s about Russia.”

He said a victory for Yushchenko in the runoff would amount to a
public humiliation of Putin, at home and abroad.

“The perception would be that Ukraine escaped, like Georgia,” he
said. “It would be like the escape of a little sister from the
family.”

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