IAGS Energy Security
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Nov 16 2004
A strategic approach to pipeline security
The most important infrastructure project in the Caucasus,
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, is about to be completed.
Next year, the 1,000 mile long $3 billion pipeline, passing through
the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, will be able to
export up to 1 million barrels a day of crude oil from the
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli offshore oil fields in the Caspian Sea
(reserves of 4.3 billion barrels) to the Western markets. Along with
the currently existing Baku-Supsa (Georgian port on the Black sea)
oil pipeline, BTC will be a valuable tool for reducing Western
dependence on Middle Eastern energy and will serve as a geopolitical
binder of the Caucasus to the Europe.
Aside from BTC, a consortium of Western energy companies has already
started the construction of the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, which
will enable the export of natural gas from the large gas field of
`Shah Deniz’ in the Caspian sea through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the
Turkish city of Erzurum. It will be $1 billion worth, 425 mile long
pipeline and will have the capacity to export up to 7 billion cubic
meters of gas (if upgraded even double that volume).
Given the unstable nature of the Caucasus, much has been said about
the threats to these pipelines. Indeed, most of the statements have
been valid. Located in a troublesome part of the world, Azerbaijan
and Georgia face major threats of terror on a daily basis. Some of
these threats are related to international terrorism (both Azerbaijan
and Georgia are members of the US-led war on terror). International
terror groups such as PKK and Al-Qaida have threatened to destroy oil
pipelines, should their political demands not be met. Additionally,
the unresolved conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, South Osetia
and Abkhazia as well as the presence of criminal gangs in the
Northern Caucasus increase the risk of attacks on the pipelines.
Although both pipelines will be buried underground, recent history
shows that this does not secure pipelines from petty thieves and
minor explosions.
Thus far the host countries of the pipelines along with the Western
energy companies have taken responsibility for the protection of the
critical energy infrastructure. Yet, it is clear that by sole
attention to the military aspects of the pipeline protection it will
be impossible to guarantee their full protection. The host countries
can upgrade their pipeline protection units and patrol teams and
purchase the most advanced technology in the world, yet experts argue
that it is also vital that the communities along which the pipelines
will pass be involved in the protection process.
BTC and South Caucasus Gas Pipeline pass through rural communities
where thousands of people have been living for centuries. Shepherds
move their herds and children pass the pipeline on the way to their
schools. Farmers irrigate the land and villagers hurry to their
relatives across the village. And all of these happen on a daily
basis. The majority of residents of the communities along the
pipelines are excited about the projects. Some of them have been
employed directly or indirectly in the construction process. Others
have big hopes and expectations that the pipelines will bring much
desired social and economic improvements to their empowered areas. In
some villages, the construction of the pipelines has already brought
in some social investment as well, such as the repair of the local
schools and hospitals, installation of the water and sewerage lines
as well as mobilization and creation of community groups and
associations. It is imperative that the communities see the economic
and social benefit of the pipelines and that these benefits trickle
down to ordinary households. This would significantly reduce the risk
of social unrest, a major threat to the pipelines.
More than 70 years of Soviet rule and centralized economy have
created a mentality in which ordinary people do not feel
responsibility for public property. Absence of initiative and
mobilization skills at the grassroots level discourages people from
joining their resources to help protect the pipeline. This, in turn,
creates perhaps the most dangerous threat to the pipelines- lack of a
feeling of ownership among the people.
In many ways, BTC and South Caucasus Gas Pipeline will become a test
for a new method of protection of critical energy infrastructure.
Traditional methods of utilizing high-tech hardware and military
units to safeguard the pipelines often do not yield desired results.
It is the involvement of the communities into the decision making and
protection process that can ensure the long-term safety of the
pipelines. Feeling ownership over the pipelines and being sure about
the positive impact to their communities can encourage people to take
an active role in the protection of the pipeline and serve as a
support resource to the government’s para-military protection units.
The resources of ordinary people should not be underestimated in this
case.
Fariz Ismailzade is a Baku based analyst focusing on Caucasus
politics and economics.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress