Russia’s clout in decline in Ukraine and Georgia’s Abkhazia – Azeri pundit

Azadliq, Baku
19 Nov 04

headlined “‘Developments in Abkhazia suit Azerbaijan'” and subheaded
“In the view of expert Sahbaz Samioglu, the Sukhumi events demonstrate
that the USA is gaining strength in the South Caucasus”

The political situation in Abkhazia has become tense. The presidential
election held in the autonomous republic faced the Ardzinba government
with the threat of removal. Sergey Bagapsh was announced the winner by
the central electoral commission but the court did not recognize his
victory. Still, his supporters have in effect come to power. We asked
expert Sahbaz Samioglu from the National Relations Institute about the
possible implications of the developments in Abkhazia on the region,
and especially on Azerbaijan.

The current situation in Abkhazia is drastically different from that
three months ago, Samioglu said. What is more, the political situation
is about to change in most of the countries under Russia’s influence,
he said. A new political landscape is being formed in Abkhazia and
similar processes are under way in Ukraine, Samioglu said.

“The first round of the [presidential] election in Ukraine has shown
that the political situation in regions controlled by Russia is
gradually changing. The political landscape in Abkhazia is completely
different as well. The attack of his supporters on the government’s
building in the wake of Bagapsh’s victory is a case in
point. Tbilisi’s statement also demonstrated that Russia has lost its
control over Abkhazia. The statement said that the developments in
Abkhazia should be regarded not as a rebellion against the government
but a display of the people’s will,” Samioglu said.

The West has played a big part in weakening Russia’s positions in both
Ukraine and Georgia, the expert said. The current situation will
create conditions for restoring Georgia’s sovereignty over Abkhazia
and this will suit Azerbaijan as well, he said. A similar course of
events cannot be ruled out for Nagornyy Karabakh, Samioglu said.

The developments show that the USA is nearing the borders of Russia,
the expert said. He regards this as the coming of the super power to
the South Caucasus.