Reuters AlertNet, UK
Nov 19 2004

CRISIS PROFILE-Why is tension resurfacing in Georgia?

By Theresa Freese

People enjoy the view of old Tbilisi under the moon.
Photo by DAVID MDZINARISHVILI

What’s the problem?

Stability in the South Caucasus republic of Georgia is looking shaky
in the semi-autonomous regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Where exactly is the South Caucasus?

The South Caucasus consists of three states – Georgia, Armenia, and
Azerbaijan. All are former Soviet republics pinned between the
Russian Federation and the Middle East from north to south and the
Black Sea and Caspian Sea from east to west.

The Caucasus Mountains range divides and, Georgians claim, protects
the country from its northern neighbour.

Lying just beyond these mountains are the North Caucasus republics of
Russia: Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia,
Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachai-Cherkessia, and Adygheia.

Why are there so many disputes in this region?

It’s a familiar story of Soviet nationalities policies and
ethnopolitical tensions tearing apart states. Most of the disputes go
back to when the Soviet Union broke apart in 1991, when autonomous
republics and regions clamoured for independence.

Ossetia was integrated into the Russian Empire in the late 18th
century, but divided between 1922 and 1924, when the South became an
autonomous region of Georgia and the North an autonomous republic of
Russia.

About 60,000 people live in South Ossetia. The population of North
Ossetia is more than 700,000.

When Georgia became a sovereign state after the collapse of the
Soviet Union, South Ossetia’s leadership seceded from Georgian rule
and went to war.

Thousands of people were killed and displaced between 1989 and 1992,
but South Ossetia’s population won de facto independence – but with
amorphous borders.

Abkhazia’s 1992-1993 war was much bloodier, claiming some 10,000
lives and uprooting tens of thousands of people – but the republic
achieved a solid boundary with Georgia.

Why do people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia reject Georgia?

They have grown accustomed to independence and fear Georgia will
attempt to retake their territories by force. They worry about
becoming a marginalised ethnic minority within Georgia.

Russia’s economic and political involvement complicates the
situation.

What is Russia’s involvement?

Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia owe their autonomy largely to Russian
backing.

Russia provides their inhabitants with Russian passports and
residency documents, allowing free movement into Russia.

Through them, the Abkhaz and Ossetians receive Russian pensions,
which are much higher than pensions from the Georgian state.

Georgians allege they receive military training and equipment.

In addition to its peacekeeping bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
Russia maintains military bases in Georgia proper.

Some government officials are direct imports from Russia. The
currency is the Russian ruble, and there are Russian flags and
posters of Russian President Vladimir Putin everywhere.

Why is Russia doing this?

Mostly for geopolitical reasons. Many regional experts claim they
provide Russia with a foothold south of the Caucasus mountains.

At the same time, Russia is concerned about separatist movements in
its federation. If Abkhazia or South Ossetia successfully became
breakaway states, Chechnya’s calls for independence could be
validated.

However, Russia apparently does not want to see Abkhazia and South
Ossetia fall back under Georgian sovereignty. Instead, it avoids
officially recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent
republics but provides other types of support.

Why is the tension rising now?

President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in the `rose revolution’
of November 2003, after mass demonstrations prompted by flawed
parliamentary elections resulted in the bloodless removal of his
predecessor, Eduard Shevardnadze

Whereas Shevardnadze is widely seen as having let the conflicts
freeze — and even allowing his government to profit from them —
Saakashvili promised to re-establish Georgia’s territorial integrity
by bringing three breakaway regions under control.

Georgia needs to settle these conflicts and get foreign troops off
its soil in order to achieve its long-term aim of joining NATO and
the European Union. It stands to reduce corruption, crime and the
trade in contraband, narcotics and weapons that results from porous
borders. Both the Abkhaz and Ossetians, as well as many Georgians,
survive on smuggling numerous products between Russia and Georgia.

How did the president start his campaign?

President Saakashvili’s first target was the autonomous republic of
Ajaria.

He succeeded in regaining control in May 2004, when the region’s
leader — Aslan Abashidze — fled to Russia.

Unlike Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ajaria had had no history of
conflict with Georgia proper, and the majority of residents are
ethnic Georgians.

When did things begin heating up in South Ossetia?

The tension started rising in June 2004, and the conflict heated up
in August. The mid-October shooting of peacekeepers in South Ossetia
signaled a return to violence after a summer of fighting had given
way to tenuous peace.

The September massacre of more than 330 hostages after armed men
seized a school in Beslan, North Ossetia, was another blow to
stability.

Arguably overconfident after its success in Ajaria, Georgia moved
quickly without a well-planned strategy.

The Georgian crackdown on smuggling from Russia was designed to cut
off income to Ossetian authorities in Tskhinvali, South Ossetia’s
capital.

However, it also damaged the livelihoods of Ossetian and Georgian
communities and severed the only real interaction between them.

The Georgian government launched humanitarian aid and cultural
initiatives to garner popular support among Ossetians, but since
authorities were always accompanied by journalists, their activities
were perceived as show.

Armed Ossetians responded by closing roads linking disputed
territories. They detained Georgians on or near Ossetian lands, and
prevented Georgian media from operating freely.

Many Ossetians ceased communication with their Georgian neighbors,
reportedly under threat of being detained or losing their jobs or
pensions.

So is it just a question of coming to some agreement?

Ossetians and the Abkhaz firmly reject Georgian rule, while Georgian
residents in South Ossetia are adamant that they will never live
under Ossetian authority.

Georgian authorities say they never intended for events to degenerate
into a conflict. But the conflict incited fears in both Abkhazia and
South Ossetia that Georgia’s new leadership could be aggressive.

They are offering South Ossetia and Abkhazia wide autonomy within
Georgia, but cannot define this.

The population of Abkhazia halved after the 1992-1993 war, when
ethnic Georgians left or were driven out. Only a small group of
Georgians remains in the disputed Gali district – under Abkhazian
authority.

The republic has less than 250,000 inhabitants, compared with 536,000
before the war. The population of the Abkhaz capita, Sukhumi, was
also cut in half.

South Ossetia remains ethnically mixed, but Georgian-controlled
villages remain in its centre.

What are the humanitarian consequences of the tension?

People living on both the Georgian and South Ossetian sides of the
conflict zone are suffering.

Many buildings have been heavily hit by shelling.

People in the region — particularly those with damaged homes —
worry about surviving the winter for lack of firewood. Venturing into
the woods is dangerous. Villagers have disappeared, been killed by
landmines, beaten, detained or bribed.

Georgians are worried about Ossetian forces targeting their schools,
since some were heavily hit over the summer, and some families are
moving or sending their children elsewhere to study.

Georgia’s crackdown on contraband has left many people without
incomes. Some are unable to buy staple food items such as flour,
cooking oil and sugar.

Information on the situation in South Ossetia is difficult to obtain
or verify but Ossetians are reportedly experiencing similar problems.

At least eight civilians and peacekeepers have been killed or wounded
since the ceasefire began in South Ossetia on August 19.

What is going on in Abkhazia?

Abkhazia has been on the brink of civil unrest since disputed
presidential elections in early October 2004.

Abkhazia may pose a more difficult challenge to Saakashvili’s
government than South Ossetia. Given its Black Sea coast, it has
greater strategic, economic, and historical importance for Russia.

Peace in Abkhazia has been shaky since its 1993 cease-fire agreement.
A May 1998 special operation in Gali almost threw the republic back
into a full-scale war.

Worsening matters, the Abkhaz defense ministry reports that Georgia
is building up its forces along its border with Abkhazia.

What are the effects on regional stability?

Neighbouring North Caucasus republics could get involved, either to
call for independence from Russia or to support the Abkhaz or
Ossetians.

Former fighters from Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachai-Cherkessia, and
Adygheia are already politically involved in Abkhazia’s election
dispute.

Chechens supported the Abkhaz in their war against Georgia. Some say
they might now support Georgia against Russia in South Ossetia.

North Ossetia, meanwhile, has territorial disagreements with
Ingushetia and could get stuck in a two-front war if the South
Ossetia conflict escalates.

Who’s keeping the peace?

In South Ossetia, a Joint Control Commission representing Georgia,
South Ossetia, North Ossetia and Russia, as well as Joint
Peacekeeping Forces representing Georgia, Russia, and North Ossetia
are meant to prevent the escalation of the South Ossetia conflict.

Because Russia backs the Ossetians, Georgia claims it stands alone in
these institutions.

Georgia has signed an agreement with South Ossetia’s leader, Eduard
Kokoeti, that would prevent all armed formations except peacekeepers
and police inside the South Ossetia conflict zone.

But this will be difficult, many say impossible, to achieve.
Moreover, definition of the conflict zone is currently being
contested by Georgia.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is
seen by many analysts as the only objective body operating in South
Ossetia.

However, since Russia is an OSCE member state, it is difficult for
the organisation to expand its mandate to increase its observation
capabilities.

With only five military observers on the ground, the OSCE has little
chance of covering the region effectively.

The United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) performs a
similar function in Abkhazia and faces analagous obstacles.

It gave the peacekeeping mandate to the Commonwealth of Independent
States, and the contingent is entirely made up of Russians.
Negotiations between Georgia and Abkhazia on this point have come to
a halt since Saakashvili became president.