Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 26, 2004, Friday

TALKS ABOUT PEACE

SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, No. 45, November 24-30, 2004, p. 5

by Samvel Martirosyan

Despite Yerevan’s and Baku’s statements about the necessity of
solving the Karabakh problem peacefully, Armenia and Azerbaijan
continue increasing expenditure on defense. The leading world powers
interested in strengthening their influence in the Trans-Caucasian
region support militarist trends in this region.

Yerevan and Baku recently reported the increase of the budgets of the
security structures in 2005. Pavel Safaryan, Armenian Deputy Finance
and Economy Minister, stated that the Defense Ministry will receive
around $91 million next year; this is by 10% more than in 2004
(around $83 million). The national security service will receive
$12.5 million ($11.2 million in 2004). Police will get $19.8 million
($18.5 million in 2004).

Azerbaijan’s expenses are more substantial. Finance Minister Avez
Alekbberov said that it is intended to allocate around $240 million
to the Defense Ministry from the 2005 draft budget. This is by a
third more than this year.

In other words, Azerbaijan’s defense spending will be three times as
big as Armenia’s defense budget. However, there are some other
factors. Firstly, in Baku and Yerevan the actual allocations to the
military differ from official reports. As a rule, the military
budgets of the republics are twice higher than official reports. In
addition, no one knows how much Nagorny Karabakh spends on its
defense. It should be noted that the number of armored combat
vehicles, which Nagorny Karabakh has, can be compared with Armenia’s
arsenals.

In addition, Yerevan and Baku can add $8.75 million to their military
budgets. This money will be allocated by the US to its
Trans-Caucasian partners in 2005. Judging from a project presented by
George W. Bush’s administration, it was intended to allocate over $2
million to Armenia, and over $8 million to Azerbaijan. However, the
Congress managed to convince the government to make military aid to
the republics equal.

In the meantime, Russia started selling weapons to member nations of
the Organization of the collective security treaty at domestic
prices. Armenia used this opportunity. Yerevan received two Il-76
military-transport planes in late May. Russian Defense Minister
Sergei Ivanov said: “The military-transport planes were sold at
domestic prices – this scheme works. Armenia purchased two very good
military-transport planes.”

Militarization of Azerbaijan and Armenia takes place against the
background of the problem of Nagorny Karabakh. Ilkham Aliyev came to
power a year ago. He promised to solve the Karabakh problem using
force if Yerevan and Stepanakert refused to make concession. He
announced plans to reform the Azerbijani Army in May 2004. The
president of the republic stated at the opening of a military unit in
Nakhichevan that “the defense budget will be increasing along with
strengthening of Azerbaijan’s economic potential”.

Baku tried to add the issue of the state of Azerbaijan’s occupied
territories to the agenda of the UN General Assembly. Azerbaijan
considers Armenia as aggressor in this document. Nine members of the
general committee, which compiles the agenda of the General Assembly,
supported this document. The General Assembly decided to consider
this issue (42 members voted for discussing this problem). No one
voted against this topic.

It should be noted that Kazakhstan, which is Yerevan’s partner in the
Organization of the collective security treaty, supported
anti-Armenian feelings. Russia and the US did not vote against this
topic despite the fact that this subject is “unconstructive”. In the
meantime, representatives of Moscow and Washington opposed the idea
to consider the Karabakh conflict within the framework of the UN. The
Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its opinion regarding Azerbaijan’s
move: “Russia abstained from voting, as well as other co-chairmen of
the Minsk OSCE group. We think that the initiative to consider this
issue at the UN General Assembly and the OSCE on parallel tracks will
not contribute to the progress of negotiations. By the way, the
results of voting show that the majority of members of the
international community support this opinion.”

The US ambassador to Baku stated that the US does not approve of
Azerbaijan’s decision either. The diplomat stated: “Washington does
not support the idea to discuss the issue of occupied territories at
the UN General Assembly.” He noted that the US the Karabakh problem
can be solved by means of frequent peaceful negotiations between the
conflicting sides.

However, it’s an advantage for Baku to discuss this problem in the UN
because it distracts attention from a very important factor of the
problem: participation of Nagorny Karabakh in negotiations. Yury
Merzlyakov, co-chairman of the Minsk OSCE group, intended to invite
representatives of Nagorny Karabakh to negotiations. Baku cannot put
up with it.

Azerbaijan’s plan is obvious. If the General Assembly passes the
clause on occupied territories Baku will be able to start a
full-scale military operation against Nagorny Karabakh. The passage
of this resolution will invalidate the results of negotiations held
under the aegis of the Minsk OSCE group, and the problem will be
solved by the military.

Translated by Alexander Dubovoi