Transitions Online, Czech Republic
Nov 29 2004

A Crack Emerges

by Emil Danielyan
29 November 2004

Armenia’s government begins to crack in a dispute that highlights the
role of wealth in making a political career. From Eurasianet.

YEREVAN, Armenia–An increasingly bitter dispute over election rules
for future parliamentary elections could cause a split within
Armenia’s governing coalition.

The Republican Party (HHK) of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian is at
loggerheads with its two subordinate coalition partners, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) and the Orinats Yerkir (Country of
Law) party. The dispute centers on the composition of parliament, or,
more specifically, how deputies are elected.

According to the existing law, 75 of the 131 members of the National
Assembly are elected under the proportional system, with voters
choosing a list of candidates fielded by a party or bloc. The
remaining 56 seats are distributed in single-mandate constituencies
under the first-past-the-post, or “majoritarian” system prevalent in
the United States and Britain.

The vast majority of the Armenian lawmakers elected under the
majoritarian system are wealthy government-connected individuals. In
the overwhelming number of instances, these individuals wield immense
economic influence within their respective constituencies, and are
widely believed to have secured victory at the polls through bribery
and manipulation. Many of them are affiliated with, or backed by the
HHK–a key reason why Markarian’s party has the largest parliament
faction and controls most local governments. The HHK is certainly
Kocharian’s most influential supporter.

The junior coalition members would prefer to do away with
first-past-the-post constituencies, and base future elections
entirely on the proportional system. At the very least, they want to
reduce the number of majoritarian seats in the legislature. The ARF,
also known as Dashnaktsutiun, has warned that it could quit the
coalition if the HHK continues to oppose a move to increase the
number of parliamentary seats determined under the proportional
system.

“Dashnaktsutiun reserves the right to reconsider its participation in
the coalition government in the event of a breach of the goals
spelled out in the [June 2003] memorandum on its [the coalition’s]
creation,” warned Armen Rustamian, one of its leaders. He said
expansion of the proportional system was one of the key terms of the
coalition’s power-sharing accord.

The coalition cabinet has been beset by internal wrangling ever since
its creation following the May 2003 parliamentary elections, which
were marked by widespread accusations of fraud. The ARF has regularly
expressed its dissatisfaction with the slow pace of economic
improvement, persisting government corruption and what its leaders
characterize as the “power of money” in the impoverished country. The
influential nationalist party, which has branches in Armenia’s
worldwide diaspora, toughened its rhetoric in early November after
the HHK torpedoed its efforts at electoral reform.

The two sides have tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to bridge
their differences. Tigran Torosian, a deputy parliament speaker and
an HHK leader, said on November 23 that the Republicans will make a
final attempt to strike a compromise deal later this week. Their
failure to reach agreement would set the stage for Kocharian’s
personal intervention in the row, which has already proven
debilitating for the governing coalition. Keeping all of his major
allies happy will be a difficult task, observers in Yerevan say.

Despite the recent rise in heated rhetoric, HHK leaders have been
quick to shrug off the threat of an ARF departure. “Let nobody think
that we become very concerned and nervous every time they talk about
leaving [the coalition],” Markarian said in a recent newspaper
interview.

Of all the other Armenian parties only Orinats Yerkir, which is led
by parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, did reasonably well in
individual races in the 2003 parliament elections. Yet it too wants a
greater share for the party-list seats. Proponents of the
proportional system say that it would spur the development of
political parties. Increased political competition, in turn, would
make it more difficult for one party to get away with voting
irregularities.

In a bid to prevail in the dispute, the rival camps have turned to
other political groups for support. The Republicans are strongly
backed on the issue by the People’s Deputy group of non-partisan
lawmakers. Orinats Yerkir and the ARF, meanwhile, have enlisted the
support of the United Labor Party (MAK), a small pro-Kocharian group
also represented in the current legislature.

MAK leader Gurgen Arsenian claimed on 18 November that “new
realignments” could occur both inside the parliament and the
government. He said opponents of the majoritarian system are prepared
to take “drastic steps,” which he declined to specify. “Time will
tell whether or not there will be a change in the coalition format,”
Arsenian told reporters. “I don’t rule that out.”

The existing balance of forces in parliament favors the HHK, the most
powerful government faction. Together with the People’s Deputy group,
they hold about 60 parliament seats compared to fewer than 40 seats
controlled by their pro-presidential opponents. However, the junior
coalition members could end up winning the electoral rules debate if
they gain the support of the 23 lawmakers representing Armenia’s two
main opposition groups, the Artarutiun (Justice) alliance and the
National Unity Party (AMK).

Whether the opposition parties are willing to join forces with the
junior coalition members on the electoral rules issue is uncertain at
this point. Artarutiun and the AMK are both known to be strong
advocates of proportional representation, but they have boycotted
parliament sessions since February 2004. The boycott is linked to the
pro-presidential parliament majority’s refusal to consider a
“referendum of confidence” in Kocharian.

The opposition refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Kocharian’s
victory in the 2003 presidential vote. For more than a year after the
election, the opposition pursued a popular protest strategy against
Kocharian. That effort, however, failed to attract a sufficient
following that could exert pressure on the president to either change
political course, or step down.

Since abandoning the protest strategy, opposition leaders have kept a
low profile, waiting for an opportunity to capitalize on the renewed
government infighting. They may now believe such an opportunity is at
hand and try to stoke the intra-governmental tensions by openly
backing the electoral reform championed by the ARF. All of which
makes the fast resolution of the coalition dispute even more urgent
for Kocharian.

Emil Danielyan, a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst,
wrote this article for Eurasianet.