Economist, UK
Nov 29 2004

Growing pressure for a fresh vote

Nov 29th 2004
>From The Economist Global Agenda

As Ukraine’s supreme court begins hearing the opposition’s
accusations of widespread fraud in the presidential election,
pressure is growing for a new vote to be held – this time, a clean one

THOUSANDS of supporters of Ukraine’s rival presidential
candidates – the pro-western opposition leader, Victor Yushchenko, and
the pro-Moscow prime minister, Victor Yanukovich – chanted their names
outside the supreme court building in Kiev on Monday November 29th,
as the court began hearing Mr Yushchenko’s allegations of widespread
ballot fraud. At the weekend, Ukraine’s parliament voted to declare
invalid the election, in which Mr Yanukovich supposedly beat his
rival by a margin of three percentage points. Though the parliament
has no formal power to overturn the election and demand a new one,
its vote may influence the supreme court’s decision. It is also bound
to have encouraged the huge crowds of Mr Yushchenko’s supporters that
have thronged Kiev’s main square and blockaded some of the capital’s
main roads and public buildings for the past week.

Mr Yanukovich’s hopes of upholding his dubious claim to the
presidency received a further blow on Monday, when one of his most
important aides appeared to jump ship. Serhiy Tyhypko, the governor
of the country’s central bank, who has been doubling up as Mr
Yanukovich’s campaign manager, announced he was quitting both jobs.
According to some reports, Mr Tyhypko also said he now accepts that a
re-run of the election – which Mr Yushchenko has demanded – would be the
best option.

America and the European Union are also backing the opposition
leader’s calls for a re-run – either of both rounds of voting or just
the run-off between himself and his rival – but this time without the
absentee ballots which international observers said were used to
commit illegal multiple voting. On Monday evening, Mr Yanukovich
finally conceded that he would accept a re-run in two regions where
fraud has been alleged, if the accusations were proved. His most
important backer, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, has wavered
between congratulating his man on his `victory’ and calling for the
dispute to be resolved peaceably in the courts.

Late last week, high-level envoys from the EU and Russia, the
presidents of Poland and Lithuania, and Ukraine’s outgoing president,
Leonid Kuchma, held talks with the two candidates to try to broker a
solution. The talks ended with only an agreement to hold more talks,
and a joint renunciation of violence from the two rivals. Afterwards,
Mr Kuchma, who had backed Mr Yanukovich, criticised Mr Yushchenko for
refusing to call off his supporters’ protests and blockades.

Backers of both sides have continued to raise the stakes: regional
governments in some of Mr Yanukovich’s strongholds in the east of the
country have begun moves towards declaring autonomy from Kiev if Mr
Yushchenko gains the presidency – though Mr Yanukovich has distanced
himself from these moves. Meanwhile, one of Mr Yushchenko’s closest
aides in the parliament gave Mr Kuchma 24 hours to sack Mr Yanukovich
as prime minister, or they would press for criminal proceedings
against Mr Kuchma and impose a blockade on his movements.

Investors are spooked by fears that the turmoil could get even worse.
On Monday, Ukrainian bonds fell sharply on the financial markets. Mr
Kuchma gave a warning that the country faced financial collapse `like
a house of cards’ within days. A rapid and clear decision by the
supreme court might bring about a speedy resolution of the conflict.
But the court may take some days to arrive at a ruling – and even then,
there is no guarantee that it will come down clearly on one side or
the other. Ukraine does not have much of a tradition of an
independent judiciary, though its supreme court has been known to
rule against the authorities.

The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine – the second-largest economy in
the former Soviet Union – could affect the fate of the rest of eastern
Europe, including Russia itself. Mr Putin has strongly backed Mr
Yanukovich in the hope of reasserting Moscow’s grip on Russia’s `near
abroad’. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, several of Russia’s
former satellites have broken away to join both the EU and the
American-led NATO defence alliance. Mr Yushchenko proposes that
Ukraine do the same, while his rival has argued for maintaining
strong links with Russia. If Ukraine does now go West, so to speak,
it may trigger similar movements in those remaining bits of the `near
abroad’ that still cleave to Moscow. Furthermore, if Ukraine starts
to enjoy western-style human rights and prosperity, voters in Russia
itself might begin to ask why they cannot have the same.

On Kiev’s streets, among the sea of banners, scarves and hats in
orange – Mr Yushchenko’s campaign colour – can be seen many white-and-red
Georgian flags. These signal the Ukrainian opposition’s desire for a
repeat of last year’s `rose revolution’ in Georgia, in which huge but
peaceful protests forced the country’s then president, Edward
Shevardnadze, to resign following dubious parliamentary elections. In
the ensuing vote for a new president, the country’s pro-western
opposition leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, emerged victorious.

However, some less rose-tinted precedents have recently been set by
other former Soviet states. Only two months ago, Belarus’s president,
Alexander Lukashenka, `won’ a rigged referendum to allow him to run
for re-election. The EU decided last week to tighten its sanctions
against those in his government it blames for the ballot fraud.
Azerbaijan and Armenia also held flawed elections last year, in which
the incumbent regimes stayed in power. There seems little prospect of
change in these three countries, though the downfall of the old guard
in Ukraine might lift the spirits of their oppositions.

While the turmoil continued in Ukraine at the weekend, presidential
and parliamentary elections were held in Romania – another former
eastern-block country that is seeking to move westwards. The centrist
opposition claimed there had been Ukrainian-style ballot stuffing and
implausibly high turnouts in the strongholds of the governing
ex-communist party. But, unlike in Ukraine, international observers
from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe
declared the election to have been largely fair (though they did say
the reports of irregularities should be investigated). Also unlike in
Ukraine, both of Romania’s main parties are in favour of their
country joining the EU, which is expected to happen in 2007 – long
before Ukraine ever might.