PanArmenian News
Dec 1 2004
IRAN-ARMENIA GAS PIPELINE WILL BECOME A REALITY SOON
However, the pipeline will not have a transit function yet.
The construction works of the Armenian segment of Iran-Armenia gas
pipeline started on November 30. It should be reminded that the start
construction works has been postponed several times. If the
construction works comply with the planned schedule, Iranian gas will
be supplied to Armenia already in 2007. The investments are expected
to be recompensed in nine years.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ «Sanir» Iranian company will carry out construction
of the first 42km long Meghri-Qajaran segment. According to the
agreement reached during the visit of the president of Iran Mohhamad
Khatami, the Iranian party will fund $30 million. The issue of
contract of the second phase of the pipeline is still not settled.
The second phase is estimated $90 million. As for the construction of
the Iranian part of the pipeline, the construction works are carried
out as scheduled. The cost of the Iranian segment is $110 million.
Construction works are already under way, but the Russian `Gasprom’
still hasn’t given any answer about its participation in the project.
`Gasprom’ doesn’t say `no’. The interest of the Russian company in
the Iran-Armenia pipeline is obvious. But things have gone no further
than elaboration of technical-economic justification of possible
investments. It should be reminded that during his visit in Yerevan,
the vice- president of `Gasprom’ Alexander Ryazanov stated that the
payback dates are a bit above the norms accepted by `Gasprom’.
`Gasprom’ prefers short-term investments. In other cases, political
decisions are usually made. Conflicts between commercial and
political interests are always solved in favor of political
interests. It is worth mentioning that conflicts of that sort are
quite common. Things were like that in spring when `Gasprom’
vice-president opposed to the Prime Minister Michael Fradkov, who
claimed that Moscow intended to supply Russian gas to the third world
markets through Armenia.
It is quite obvious that Moscow delays its answer due to political
considerations, although Russians do not have any grounds for anxiety
concerning the perspectives of Iran Armenian gas pipeline. The
Russian gas will not be forced out from Armenian market by the
Iranian gas, as the latter is nearly twice as more expensive. The
Iranian gas will just ensure Armenia’s energetic safety. It is known
that the Iranian gas will be processed into electricity, which will
be supplied back in its full capacity. The local consumer will
receive gas from Iran only in case of interruptions in the Russian
gas supply. As for the concerns about the plans of Iran to enter the
western market, it is already evident that the Armenian pipeline will
not have transit functions. This became clear when it turned out that
the diameter of the pipe would not exceed 700mm. A pipe with such a
diameter will not allow pumping enough gas needed for transit.
Nevertheless, the gas pipe brought to the Armenian border is 1.5m in
diameter. It means that Teheran does not exclude the possibility of
widening the diameter of the Armenian pipeline in future. However
this information should not alarm Russians. It should rather
encourage them because Moscow has too little resources to prevent the
plans of Iran concerning the outlet to European markets. If Iranian
gas is meant to enter Europe in one way or another, it would be much
better for Russia if it passed through Armenia. In Moscow they
realize it and perhaps this is why they don’t refuse to participate
in the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline construction project.
There are many alternatives to the Armenian route. At the end of
summer, during negotiations held between the first vice-president of
Iran Mohhamadreza Aref and the prime minister of Turkey Redjeb
Erdoghan a preliminary agreement was reached concerning Iranian gas
transit through Turkey. Besides, the gas pipeline passing through
Azerbaijan is currently being restored. After restoration, the
Iranian gas will get to Georgia already in spring. After this, the
project of laying a gas pipeline along the bottom of Black Sea to
Ukraine will again become relevant. It is estimated that the transit
pipeline Iran-Europe will cost $5 milliards.
Money is not going to be a problem, because the demand for Iranian
gas in Europe increases year by year, which is also promoted by the
recent political processes in Ukraine. Western power engineering
specialists accept that people living in Eastern Europe will have to
celebrate Christmas without light and heat, since the conflict
between Moscow and Kiev may bring to the closure of the pipeline. As
is well known, one third of gas going to Europe passes through the
territory of Ukraine. Creation of alternatives to this source of
energy supply is one of the most topical problems for Europe. Many
members of Russian government realize that sooner or later the
alternative will be created and the Iranian gas will go to northwest,
but the thing is in which way will it go to northwest. In current
conditions the Armenian route is the most acceptable for Moscow.
Russia’s presence in Armenia will enable to control the situation to
some extent. Thus it would be quite logical if the Russian government
ordered `Gasprom’ to participate in the construction of Iran-Armenia
gas pipeline.