Newropeans Magazine, France
Dec 2 2004

December 17th 2004: the day the European Council lost the EU people’s
confidence ?
– 2nd Part –

by Franck Biancheri

Summarizing bluntly the situation, to give people of the European
Union and of Turkey a signal that Turkey may be member of the EU in
the coming two decades would a dramatic political mistake for the EU
as well as for Turkey. First because it will be a lie (whatever
political scenario is adopted there is no way a majority of EU
citizens will accept such a membership in the next 20 years; all
trends are going in the opposite direction); second because it would
prevent the EU to push EU-Turkey relations into the only available
constructive option for decades to come: to integrate Turkey within
the new EU Neighbourhood policy.

So, our leaders’ main preoccupation on December 17th should be to
keep open this option for the short term future (in 4/5 years it will
obviously become THE only possible way to move forward for EU/turkey
relations)* because they have to deal with a huge backlog of lies
from our side (essentially the last 40 years of EU leaders and
institutions declarations); and because at this stage, Turkish
leadership and elites have still not yet understood what the EU
really is.

For having done many conferences in Turkey in the past twelve years,
I have noticed that essentially the Turkish positions have not
changed a bit, while in the meantime the EU has drastically changed.
For instance, they keep on believing that there will be genuine
`negotiations’ between them and the EU for the accession; while
everybody in the EU knows that there will be nothing close to that:
Turkey will have to adopt the `acquis communautaire’ and will be
obliged to comply `in practice’ (not just in theory) with all EU
legal, political, social constraints. Full stop. So rather than
playing the negative process** such as `let’s the Turks discover the
`hard way’ that they do not want to get in the EU because they are
not ready to change up to the extent the EU will require’, our
leaders should really make clear from the conditions before
negotiations even start that the path will be extremely tough. For
instance, in no ways should it be allowed for Turkey to even think
starting negotiations without having beforehand recognized Cyprus
(one of the current 25 EU members); neither without having `cleaned’
his own past and recognized the Armenian genocide. Beyond Turkey, our
leaders must also know that the lack of such pre-conditions will just
increase EU voters’ feeling that they should oppose our leaders’
vision of Europe’s future. Such a feeling will drastically increase
the abstention and No votes in the referenda on the EU constitution.

Speaking of referenda, our leaders will also be wise to acknowledge
the fact that most probably a large number of EU Member states would
in the end generate referenda on any possible Turkish membership***;
most probably under public opinion pressure, and with support of the
political forces opposed to the accession of Turkey (both will
largely dominate the EU political scene of the coming years).

To conclude, if the Council is not able to decide in a way that
answers Turkish leaders’ call for recognition as being a full partner
(and the possibility to be a partner is part of that request; much
more than the candid will to become a true member of the EU) while
clearly indicating the minimum pre-negotiations necessary steps
(Cyprus, Armenian genocide) and indicating the way for the
alternative of relation anchored within EU neighbourhood policy, then
the Council will lose its credibility as embodying the EU’s general
interest.

The Commission already lost it on October 6th; the Parliament never
had it. For the sake of EU’s future Constitution, let’s hope that our
national leaders will be aware that their collective ability to
resist Ankara’s pressure will definitely determine EU’s political
future.

Not because Turkey will join or not. It will not. But because the
xenophobic, populist and extremist political forces will find new
strengths if our leaders are not up to the challenge; and in the
process will help defeat the Constitution project.

* The fact that the European Parliament’s Commission on Foreign
affairs just recommended the contrary is another proof that this is
the only correct choice. The Parliament is run by a coalition of
parties (PSE and EPP) which together did not even represent 30% of
European voters (as from EU elections of June 2004) and where
decisions are not made following voters expectations but through
lobbying and internal compromises. At least it cannot loose public
credibility, because it never got it.
** I suspect that a large number of our current political leaders and
Eurocrats are betting that Turkey will be obliged to stop on its way
to accession because of the impossible challenge it will represent to
its structure and culture.
*** France is far from being the only country which will go this way.
As soon as France will officially go for it, it is certain that many
other countries will find entitled to do so.