PREVENTING DISASTERS FROM SPACE

RIA Novosti, Russia
Dec 6 2004

MOSCOW (Space Research Institute expert Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti)
– In the last few years, natural disasters have become more frequent
and caused more damage. Undesirable and dangerous processes are
triggered by the environmental damage caused by technological
progress. Natural disasters and accidents like earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, forest fires and pipeline accidents can be predicted and,
in some cases, even prevented. Data from space is essential to solve
these problems. After the tragic December 1988 earthquake in Armenia,
Soviet experts proposed developing an early-warning system consisting
of space and ground equipment. At the time, the necessary equipment
for the space part of the system was planned to be placed on the Mir
space station and eventually be transferred to unmanned satellites.
The spacecraft were to have been put into orbit by converted ballistic
missiles. However, the Soviet Union collapsed and the program, like
many others, was terminated. Nonetheless, the long-duration Mir,
Salyut-6 and Salyut-7 missions helped amass experience in this field.

In short, the space stations served as a testing site for developing
remote-sensing systems. Such experiments are now being conducted on
Russia’s segment of International Space Station (ISS) as part of the
Uragan (Hurricane) program. The goal of the program is to develop
specific aspects of a disaster warning system. The program is focused
on digital photos of the earth and monitoring all natural disasters
and accidents.

The photographs taken from the ISS at an altitude of 380km cover
an area of 10x15km, with a resolution of 5m and 20x30km, with a 10m
resolution. Panoramic photos of the earth are also taken, however as
the photographed area increases, the resolution decreases.

High resolution photographs are the most popular. Therefore magnifying
optical systems are often used for these observations to ensure a
three-meter resolution of the terrestrial surface. The restrictions
of the station’s orbital inclination to the equatorial plane limit
the area the high-quality photographs can be taken to between the
latitudes of 56 degrees north to 56 degrees south. This creates large
blank spots in the research because the Arctic and Antarctic regions,
which significantly influence the climate, are unable to be seen.

All experiments conducted on the Russian segment of the ISS must be
coordinated with the United States and receive safety certificates.
For example, a large amount of time has been spent trying to convince
the Americans that taking photographs from the ISS’s windows was
safe. It was necessary to provide evidence that the crew members
would not damage their eyes from solar radiation or from fragments
of the window that might break off if a micro-meteorite hit it. These
concerns were groundless because all observations are conducted when
the window faces the earth.

Indeed, photographs transmitted to earth in real time are the most
valuable in predicting disasters. The United States’ communications
channels were initially used for this purpose, relaying all data
via the TDRS geostationary satellite. The photographs that required
immediate analysis were sent to earth without any problems. However,
after September 11 when cosmonauts photographed the tragedy, this no
longer became possible because NASA established a special department
comprising scientists who analyze all photographs taken by cosmonauts
before they are sent on American communications channels. This
censorship was not included in any agreements. Consequently, that
communications channel basically stopped providing real time data.
Russian tracking stations receive some photos when the ISS passes
over them, however, most of the photographs are flown back on Soyuz
spacecraft every six months).

There is another problem. After the space shuttle Columbia disaster,
a full crew is not on the ISS, which has prevented research projects
from being done. Work on the Uragan program is mostly done voluntarily
on the weekends or during free time.

What has been accomplished over the last several years? The first ISS
mission did work on the Uragan program that mostly included taking
pictures of hydrocarbon deposit in Kazakhstan on the northeastern
coast of the Caspian Sea. Technologically imperfect oil production,
oil spills and removal of subterranean waters, in the area led to
the formation of 1-2km in diameter oil and water lakes. Some of the
lakes were surrounded by mounds of earth to prevent subsequent spills.
However, the photographs from space show that the some of the dams
have already been breached and oil is leaking into the sea. An
environmental disaster is quickly approaching and it will affect
not only the Kazakh, but also the Russian parts of the Caspian Sea
before politicians agree to demarcate the body of water. The Aral
Sea is also being monitored from the ISS. Observations show that
the sea will disappear in the near future because the Amudarya and
Syrdarya rivers are being drained. As the Aral Sea dries up, a new
problem has been created: salt clouds from the bed have reached as
far as Tashkent, Bukhara and Samarkand. Photographs from the ISS
have documented this. The clouds are now moving in the direction
of the South Urals and the Volga region. Aside from damaging crops,
these salt clouds are also unhealthy.

The catastrophic floods that have been photographed in the North
Caucasus, Central and Eastern Europe, China, India and Pakistan are
evidence that disregard for nature and basic safety precautions can
cause the greatest damage. Photographs from space provided important
information about a avalanche that occurred in Karmadon gorge,
North Ossetia, two years ago. Analysis of these photographs shows
that a similar disaster could happen on the Pamir mountain range’s
Medvezhy (Bear) snowfield. Densely populated areas could be flooded
if an avalanche flows into a nearby lake which would then cause the
Pyandzh River to overflow.

Detailed photographs from the Russian ISS segment can also be used
to monitor and help with the construction of roads, pipelines and
tunnels. The Moscow authorities and Ukraine have agreed to build a
multi-purpose bridge and underwater pipeline to supply water from
the Kuban River to the Crimea. Photographs from the ISS will make it
possible to analyze the environmental implications of construction
project and conduct an objective safety inspection.

Overall, Russian methodologies enable space crews to monitor
many natural processes and accidents. International co-production
arrangements and the creation of an international disaster prediction
system that would benefit humanity are feasible. The creation of
such a system is particularly important because natural disasters and
accidents that occur far away from each other are often more connected
that than previously thought. An international space monitoring system
will enable the optimal decision to be made for both regional and
global problems.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress