EurasiaNet Organization
Dec 13 2004

UKRAINE VOTE ACCEPTANCE HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN GRIP ON ARMENIA
Emil Danielyan 12/13/04

Armenian President Robert Kocharian has been embarrassed by his
decision to recognize the “official” outcome of last month’s
Ukraine’s presidential run-off, results that were subsequently
discredited as fraudulent. Kocharian’s action on the Ukrainian vote
underscores that Russia continues to exert heavy influence over
Armenia’s diplomacy.

A new run-off election is scheduled in Ukraine for December 26 after
the country’s Supreme Court tossed out the “official” results from
the late November balloting. That vote was marred by charges of fraud
even before the polls closed. However, the dispute did not prevent
Kocharian from rushing to recognize Russia’s preferred candidate,
Viktor Yanukovich, as the winner. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. Political observers in Yerevan believe Kocharian’s
quick endorsement was prompted by Russian pressure. Regardless of the
cause, Kocharian’s action is certain to damage Armenia’s effort to
build better relations with Western nations, which did not recognize
the legitimacy of the Ukrainian election results.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has doggedly stood by Yanukovich,
accusing the United States and the European Union of meddling in the
internal affairs of what Russia calls its “near abroad.” Putin was
unusually quick to congratulate Yanukovich on his fraudulent victory
over the Western-leaning challenger Viktor Yushchenko.

Kocharian looked uneasy as he was asked by reporters on November 26
to explain his backing of Yanukovich. “If Yushchenko was elected I
would congratulate him. But it is Yanukovich who was elected and we
congratulated him,” he said, pointing to the figures released by
Ukraine’s Central Election Commission

Kocharian’s foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, claimed in televised
remarks on December 3 that Yerevan stuck to international law,
whereas the international community was motivated by political
expediency. The explanation became even more questionable the next
day when the Ukrainian Supreme Court voided the official vote
results, endorsing allegations of massive electoral fraud.

Interestingly, news of a congratulatory message sent by Kocharian to
Yanukovich was first reported by state-run Russian media.
Furthermore, Kocharian’s office never issued any statements to that
effect, leading the Yerevan newspaper “Iravunk” to joke that the
Armenian leader had to watch Russian television to find out whom he
has congratulated.

“In my view, [Kocharian’s administration] is not acting independently
and Russia’s influence is clearly visible here,” Stepan Grigorian, a
political analyst critical of the Armenian government, told
EurasiaNet. “I believe that this step was taken at the behest of
Russia.”

Lending credence to this theory is the fact Armenia has little reason
to like Ukraine’s outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, who handpicked
Yanukovich as his successor. Ukraine has repeatedly supported its
arch-foe Azerbaijan in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, with
Kuchma denouncing “Armenian occupation” of the disputed enclave as
recently as in June. Ukraine was reportedly the sole non-Muslim
nation to have backed a pro-Azerbaijani draft resolution on Karabakh
submitted to the UN General Assembly less than a month before
Kocharian’s letter. Incidentally, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev
did not congratulate Yanukovich.

In addition, Kocharian likely opposes regime change in Kyiv, given
the ongoing dispute concerning his own re-election in 2003. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Armenia’s main
opposition parties continue to withhold recognition of Kocharian’s
victory, which they insist was based on widespread voter fraud. As a
result, an opposition boycott of parliament is ongoing. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The Armenian president may be worried that the anti-government
protests in the Ukrainian capital, dubbed “orange revolution,” could
have a spillover effect in Yerevan. Kocharian’s political foes have
expressed their solidarity with Yushchenko and are reportedly
regrouping for a fresh push for power. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

Yushchenko’s likely victory in the December 26 re-run of the
Ukrainian ballot could embolden opposition leaders not only in
Armenia, but also in other CIS states, including Azerbaijan and
Kazakhstan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some
Armenian opposition leaders have already declared that the West is
ready to back a similar anti-government revolt in Armenia. Media
reports have suggested that several prominent oppositionists will
soon set up a new opposition alliance with a clearly pro-Western
agenda.

The Kocharian administration itself has sought to forge closer links
with the West in recent years, stepping up Armenia’s participation in
NATO’s Partnership for Peace program and planning to send troops to
Iraq. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Foreign
Minister Oskanian told a German news agency last month that his
country also hopes to join the EU within 20 years.

Some observers believe that Kocharian’s credibility is now damaged in
Western capitals, thus undermining what Oskanian has characterized as
Armenian’s desire to maintain a “complementary” foreign policy. “He
[Kocharian] once again underscored that Armenia remains totally
within the orbit of Russian foreign policy,” wrote a commentator for
“168 Zham,” an independent Yerevan weekly.

Meanwhile, Grigorian, the political analyst, suggested that Yerevan
may have a difficult time in re-gaining Europe’s confidence. “By
congratulating Yanukovich together with Belarus, Armenia acted
against the EU and the OSCE,” he said. “Let them not think Europe
will forget this.”

Editors Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.