Agence France Presse
Dec 15 2004

After long wait, EU decision at hand for Turkey

BRUSSELS, Dec 15 (AFP) – Turkey will soon learn if its long-running
campaign to enter the European Union is reaching fruition as EU
leaders prepare to resolve one of the most divisive issues facing the
bloc.

When they convene Thursday evening for the EU’s winter summit, the 25
heads of government are expected to give the green light that Turkey
has long sought for the opening of accession negotiations.

But diplomats say the leaders will likely defer the actual start of
the talks until the autumn of 2005, and their approval will come
hedged with a raft of caveats unprecedented for an EU candidate
state.

And last-minute objections that might stymie Turkey’s hopes cannot be
ruled out. Cyprus is one obstacle.

As the price for its accord, the internationally backed Greek-Cypriot
government wants Turkey to move on normalising relations frozen since
Turkish troops occupied the Mediterranean island’s northern third in
1974.

France, though nominally on Turkey’s side, has fuelled Turkish
frustration by using the word “genocide” for the first time to
describe the 1915-1917 Ottoman Empire massacre of Armenians.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier told parliament Tuesday that
Paris would ask many questions, “notably that of the Armenian
genocide”, in eventual EU-Turkey negotiations.

It is French pressure above all that is likely to result in the EU
failing to abide by a promise to launch accession talks with Turkey
“without delay” once the leaders give their approval.

Fearful of the Turkey question overshadowing a referendum on the EU’s
first constitution, the French government wants the launch of the
negotiations put back to the second half of next year.

The French government’s fears are not without foundation given that
in France, as in Germany, public opinion is largely hostile to
Turkey’s EU bid.

With an eye on winning their publics over, the EU leaders are
expected to impose a series of stringent conditions on Turkey and
warn that the accession talks will last a decade at least, with no
guarantee of success.

Turkey, which physically spans the Bosphorus divide between Europe
and Asia, has been knocking on the European bloc’s door for more than
four decades, first signing an association agreement with the
then-EEC in 1963.

Its big breakthrough came two years ago, when the EU agreed — at the
same time as agreeing to let in 10 states in the bloc’s biggest-ever
expansion — to decide in December 2004 on whether to start talks
with Turkey.

Now that moment has come, and the arguments are, if anything,
stormier than ever.

The most pro-Turkey EU states — including Britain, Italy, Spain and
Germany — argue that admitting Turkey is a strategic priority as a
bridge to the Muslim world.

But there is a hardcore of sceptics including Austria, Denmark and
Cyprus. They argue that Turkey is simply too big, too different and
too poor to join. The alternative proposed is a “special partnership”
rather than membership.

But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who will be in
Brussels for the summit, has insisted time and again that the EU must
treat Turkey like any other candidate.

He said Tuesday his government had met all the criteria required to
begin accession talks through major democratic and human rights
reforms adopted over the past two years, and now expects the EU to do
its part.

“I believe the EU will not undersign a historic mistake which will
weaken its own foundations and will make a decision in line with
Turkey’s expectations,” Erdogan said.