Analysis: Europe will likely give Turkey lukewarm welcome
By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent
Published December 15, 2004

World Peace Herald, DC
Dec 16 2004

BRUSSELS — For over 40 years, European leaders have dithered,
delayed and ducked the question of whether to open membership talks
with Turkey. On Friday, it is decision time. In all likelihood,
the prime ministers and presidents of the Union’s 25 states will say
“yes” to Ankara, but it is likely to be a grudging, lukewarm welcome,
reflecting widespread public unease about the poor, populous Muslim
state joining the Brussels-based bloc.

The EU is suffering from enlargement fatigue after the entry of Malta,
Cyprus and eight central and East European states in May and ahead
of Bulgaria and Rumania’s accession in 2007. A European Commission
opinion poll published last week showed that only half of those
interviewed favored a further expansion of the club, with majorities
in France, Germany, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg opposed to any
new countries joining.

When it comes to Turkey in particular, the public mood is even more
skeptical. A survey carried out by French daily Le Figaro Monday
showed 67 percent of French voters and 55 percent of Germans against
Turkish membership of the EU, with majorities in favor in Britain,
Italy and Spain.

Critics argue that Turkey is too big, too poor and too Muslim to
join the rich, compact and largely Christian EU. They also claim it
is not European — over 95 percent of its territory lies on the Asian
landmass, has a poor human rights record, is in denial about its role
in the Armenian genocide of 1915-1917 and refuses to recognize Cyprus
— an EU state since May.

“Accepting Turkey as an EU member state would be to accept the risk
of Europe becoming a League of Nations or a Euro-Asian World Trade
Organization,” said French lawmaker Jacques Toubon during a debate in
the European Parliament Wednesday. “In short, Europe would be open,
but without strength or power.”

After EU legislators voted to start membership negotiations with
Turkey in a non-binding resolution, another French deputy Francois
Grossetete said: “It is incomprehensible to want to integrate a
country which is not situated in Europe, that does not share the
same values as ours and that occupies, and does not even recognize,
a full member of the Union — the Republic of Cyprus.”

However, supporters of Turkey’s entry into the club it first applied
to join 43 years ago, say the inclusion of Europe’s largest armed
forces would strengthen the EU’s fledgling defense arm, its booming
economy and young workforce would shore up the slow-growing and
rapidly aging Union and its pivotal geographic position could serve
as a bridge to the Muslim world and act as an anchor of stability in
a volatile region.

“Turkey … I think will be a very, very powerful partner in
Europe in the 21st century,” said Britain’s Europe Minister Denis
MacShane. European Commission President Jose-Manuel Barroso told EU
parliamentarians it was time for the Union to “honor its commitment
to Turkey” and announce the opening of accession negotiations.

Both sides agree on one thing — Turkish membership of the EU
would change Europe for good. Turkey’s population is likely to hit
80 million by 2015 — the earliest date it is likely to join —
boosting the bloc’s numbers to almost 600 million after the entry of
Bulgaria, Rumania and Croatia later this decade. As voting strength
in the Council of Ministers and the EU Parliament — the club’s two
legislative bodies — is based largely on population, Turkey would
overtake Germany to become Europe’s largest and most powerful state.

The EU, a small, prosperous club of western European states for almost
half a century, would also see its point of axis shift radically
eastwards. With the entry of Turkey, the bloc would share common
borders with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan,
become a major player in the Caspian Sea and south Caucasus regions,
and increase its clout in the Middle East.

The stakes certainly could not be higher as EU leaders prepare to
meet in Brussels Thursday and Friday. German Foreign Minister Joschka
Fischer compared the Turkish decision to the collapse of communism,
saying it was “one of the EU’s biggest challenges since the fall of
the Iron Curtain in 1989.”

The Turkish government confidently expects EU leaders to say agree to
membership talks on Friday, but is wary of heads of state placing extra
obstacles in its path. Ankara wants talks to start “without delay”
in 2005 and refuses to accept any other option but full membership
of the Union. It is also against linking its EU aspirations to a
deal on Cyprus, arguing that it lobbied — unsuccessfully — for the
unification of the divided island in an April referendum.

Under pressure from Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Cyprus,
which are tepid about Turkey’s entry, EU leaders are expected
to agree tougher conditions for Ankara’s accession than for any
previous newcomers. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will
be told his government must recognize Cyprus, that the negotiations
are “open-ended” and that they can be broken off in the event of
backsliding on political and economic reforms.

EU leaders dislike making hard choices, preferring cleverly worded
compromises and political fudges to clear decisions. But on Friday,
they know that four decades of prevaricating and procrastination
will have to come to an end and Turkey must be given an answer —
whether it likes it or not.