Analysis: EU says ‘yes’ to Turkey talks
By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent
Washington Times
Dec 17 2004
Brussels, Belgium, Dec. 17 (UPI) — The European Union took a giant
step towards shedding its image as a rich, Christian club with
an aging population and spluttering economy Thursday when it gave
the green light to start membership talks with Turkey — a poor,
populous and predominantly Muslim state with a secular government,
booming growth and most of its landmass in Asia.
“Tonight, the European Union opened its door to Turkey,” European
Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters in Brussels
at the end of the first day of a summit of EU leaders in the Belgian
capital. Membership negotiations — which will deal with everything
from farm subsidies to state aid for energy companies — will start
on Oct. 3, 2005, and are likely to last at least a decade.
The details of the agreement will be thrashed out Friday, when EU
leaders will also tackle the thorny issue of Cyprus. Turkey refuses
to recognize the divided Mediterranean state — which became a member
of the bloc in May — but EU presidents and prime ministers expect
Ankara to soften its attitude towards the Greek-speaking half of the
island before it starts talks. “What kind of message does it send
when you do not recognize all the members of the club you want to
join?” asked Barroso earlier Thursday.
Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, whose country holds the
rotating presidency of the EU, will try to sell the carefully worded
deal to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan over breakfast
Friday. “I genuinely believe this is an offer Turkey should accept,”
said Barroso. However, before leaving for Brussels, Erdogan said he
would not sign up to EU membership at any price.
The historic decision, which Ankara has waited 45 years for, will
change both Turkey and the EU for good. By 2015 — the earliest the
country is likely to join the 25-member bloc, Turkey’s population
is expected to jump from 71 to 82 million, boosting the Union’s
numbers to almost 600 million after the entry of Bulgaria, Rumania
and Croatia later this decade. As voting strength in the Council of
Ministers and the EU parliament — the club’s two legislative bodies
— is based largely on population, Turkey would overtake Germany to
become Europe’s largest and most powerful state.
The EU, a small, prosperous clique of Western European states for
almost half a century, would also see its point of axis shift radically
eastwards. With the entry of Turkey, the bloc would have a foot-hold
in Asia, share common borders with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Armenia
and Azerbaijan, become a major player in the Caspian Sea and south
Caucasus regions, and increase its clout in the Middle East.
The entry of Turkey will also strengthen the EU’s fledgling defense
arm, increasing the club’s ability to carry out global peacekeeping
operations and acting as a buffer zone between a stable Europe and a
volatile Middle East. Turkey, a NATO member for more than 50 years,
has the largest armed forces in Europe and spends more of its budget
on defense than any other EU state — both great assets for a union
with big defense ambitions but pitiful resources.
Ahead of the decision, opponents of Turkey’s entry, such as Austria
and Denmark, argued that opening the door to the former Ottoman
power would lead to a wave of Turkish migrants flooding the EU. But
a recent report drawn up by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari
estimates that only 2.7 million Turks would head west after accession
— a figure equivalent to 0.5 percent of the Union’s total population.
Another fear raised by opponents was that Turkey’s entry would act as
a brake on EU growth and swallow up billions of euros of regional and
farm aid. However, a commission impact published in October estimates
the annual cost of Turkish membership by 2025 would be between $21.8
billion and $36.4 billion or between 0.1 and 0.17 percent of the
bloc’s gross domestic product.
Nevertheless, many Europeans remain fearful of Turkey’s entry, arguing
the country does not share European values, will import instability
from the Middle East, act as a Trojan horse for American interests,
weaken the club’s commitment to human rights and women’s equality,
and dilute attempts to create a political union.
After the European Parliament voted to back the opening of membership
talks by a 2-1 margin Wednesday, Hans Gert Pottering — the leader
of the assembly’s largest political grouping — warned, “If Turkey
becomes a member of the European Union, we will be enlarging ourselves
to death.”
There is widespread enlargement fatigue in the EU after the entry of
Malta, Cyprus and eight central European countries in May and ahead of
Bulgaria and Rumania’s accession in 2007. A commission opinion poll
last week showed majorities in France, Germany, Austria, Finland and
Luxembourg opposed to any new countries joining the ever-expanding
bloc. Another survey carried out by French daily Le Figaro Monday
showed 67 percent of French voters and 55 percent of Germans against
Turkish membership of the EU, with majorities in favor in Britain,
Italy and Spain.
“The challenge for Turkey is to win the hearts and minds of those
European citizens who are open to, but not convinced of Turkey’s
European destiny,” said Barroso Thursday. Yet 45 years after it first
applied for associate EU membership, Ankara still has a long way
to go before it can take its seat at the table of European nations
and EU leaders will have a hard task persuading their citizens that
Turkish membership of the bloc is in the interests of Europe.