EU Talks With Turkey Could Alter Landscape
By CONSTANT BRAND

The Associated Press
12/18/04 16:21 EST

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) – Turkey can expect to be put through a test
of fire when it launches negotiations to join the European Union, and
the process – which will last more than a decade – could transform the
political and social landscape of both Turkey and the 25-nation bloc.

It took a tough, two-day summit to hammer out a compromise agreement
allowing the talks to begin, and now Ankara is looking at an Oct. 3,
2005 date to start negotiations.

The decision is among the most important the EU has made in its
46-year existence but there were few signs of euphoric celebration of
the deal amid deep concerns among many Europeans over the prospect
of letting in a Muslim nation that – with 71 million people – would
be one of the largest members of the club.

French President Jacques Chirac, reflecting staunch opposition among
French citizens, had few positive words at the end of the gathering.

“The route will be long and difficult for Turkey to take all measures
to meet all the conditions demanded to join Europe,” he said.

The divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus was the most prominent
obstacle at the summit, which ended Friday. In the end, Turkey met the
EU demand that it agree to sign a customs deal with the 10 nations –
including Cyprus – that joined the bloc this year. But Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said later the signing does not mean
official recognition of the Greek Cypriot-led government.

So the question of Cyprus – where Turkey has troops stationed in
Turkish-Cypriot-run enclave in the north – remains open. The summit
also set a number of other conditions on internal reforms before the
start of talks.

And many EU states are lukewarm to even starting talks with Turkey –
so they may try to appease opposition at home by putting up added
stumbling blocks during the negotiations to delay its entry.

Chirac, who has promised a referendum on Turkish membership if the
talks succeed, said Ankara would have to recognize the mass killings
of Armenians in the early 20th century.

Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel said he would also call a
referendum because bringing a Muslim country into the EU “must not
be decided in an ivory tower … We cannot be indifferent about
public opinion.”

While Turkey takes on changes to win membership, some Europeans fear
that Turkey’s entry would mean devastating change for the union, even
causing the bloc’s collapse setting back the nearly 50-year drive to
unify the continent so it can rival the United States and China.

Countries may be less willing to tear down barriers within the bloc
if it means dealing with the economic and social consequences of a
Muslim nation of Turkey’s size.

For example, France and Poland, who benefit most from EU farm
subsidies, have said they are opposed to granting similar benefits
to Turkey’s agricultural sector, which will dwarf all others, and so
put an end to joint handouts.

Also many countries fear that further integrating rights of free
movement across the EU would lead to a mass migration of poorer Turks
to other EU countries, something they want to avoid, fearing they
will take away local jobs.

Then there is the widespread worry among many Europeans that Turkey’s
Muslim culture – though its government is resolutely secular – will
not click with their Judeo-Christian values.

Jacques Attali, a former adviser to French President Francois
Mitterand, wrote in the Belgian daily Le Soir, advocating a breakaway
“core” of countries pursuing closer ties within the EU. “We need to
recreate the federation with only a few states, but not with the same
EU structures,” he said.

Several critical newspapers said the deal with Turkey would mark
the end of the EU’s political ambitions to become a power on the
world stage.

Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder, who staunchly backed Turkey’s bid, “could go down in history
… as the German chancellor during whose term in office and with
whose approval the idea of a politically united Europe was abandoned.”

The Czech Republic’s biggest daily, Mlada Fronta Dnes said Turkey’s
membership might be a “bite too hard for Brussels to swallow.”

“The individual states … will lack will to closely cooperate,”
it said in an editorial.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso had to deny rumors
this week of fears that the EU’s constitution, which still faces
ratification, would have to be scrapped to reformulate how the EU
makes decisions ahead of Turkey’s entry to ensure its influence would
not dominate over older members.

Although Turkey’s current population of 71 million is smaller than
that of Germany – currently 82 million – it is expected to grow to
80-85 million by 2020 and nearly 89 million by 2025, while Germany’s
population is predicted to fall slightly. As the largest country in
the EU, Turkey would have the most votes in the bloc’s decision-making
bodies.

The clock has already started ticking for Turkey to meet the conditions
prior to starting the October negotiations, which the EU warned offered
“no guarantee” of success.

It will have to deliver results in meeting “benchmarks” on a number of
key issues from Kurdish rights to ensuring “zero-tolerance” of torture,
and passing additional penal code reforms. Erdogan will also have to
make good on recognizing Cyprus.

Jumping that first hurdle, Turkey then faces a test in a vast array
of policy areas to meet minimum standards before talks begin in such
complex policy issues like environmental protection laws or food
safety standards.

And during the negotiations, any of the EU’s 25 nations can call for
a freeze in the talks if they feel Turkey is backtracking on reforms.

Josep Borrell, president of the European Parliament reiterated calls
that EU leaders as well as Turkey had to sell the negotiations to
their citizens if they wanted them to succeed and be welcomed.

“Turkey … is not a candidate like any other,” Borrell wrote in
Le Soir. “The question of Turkey divides Europeans. It pushes the
geographical, historic and political limit of Europe … but Turkey
should not be rejected because the majority of its population is
Muslim.”

EDITORS NOTE: Constant Brand has covered European Union affairs for
The Associated Press in Brussels since 1999.