Iran seeking pact with Baku against US attack – Azeri daily

Ayna, Baku
22 Dec 04

Iran seeks to ensure Azerbaijan’s neutral stance in the event of a
US invasion, the Azerbaijani daily Ayna has quoted military sources
as saying. In return, Azerbaijan may receive credits, grants and
support in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, the paper
said. Commenting on the report, a military expert pointed out that
a deal with Iran will be of no benefit to Azerbaijan as the USA will
respond to Iran’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan and the country may
be cornered in the international arena. The following is an excerpt
from Sumarinli’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna on 22 December
headlined “Iran lures Azerbaijan into a secret military pact” and
subheaded “In return for some ‘services’, the Persian regime wants
Baku to take a neutral stance in America’s ‘Iran agenda'”. Subheadings
have been inserted editorially:

A “turn” in Iran’s policy

Iranian Defence Minister Adm Ali Shamkhani is paying a two-day visit
to Azerbaijan, a spokesman for the [Azerbaijani] Defence Ministry,
Capt Ilqar Verdiyev, has told Ayna newspaper.

Shamkhani is scheduled to have the following meetings during the
visit: with Defence Minister Safar Abiyev, with Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov and with President Ilham Aliyev. No documents are
expected to be signed during the visit, Verdiyev said.

This is the first visit of Shamkhani to Azerbaijan. So far, his
name has figured only in controversial statements aired against
Azerbaijan. He has threatened to carry out strikes on border
territories if there is any threat to Iran, and he has demanded that
Azerbaijan should not provide the military forces of a third country
with access to its territory or to the Caspian (Turan news agency).

Such a turn in the Tehran government’s policy can be explained by
Iran’s serious concerns about prospective US military pressure on the
mullah regime and by its attempts to prevent Azerbaijan’s participation
in the operation. To recap, Iranian Minister of Information
[Intelligence] Ali Yunesi visited Baku on 19 December. However,
Verdiyev said that he disagrees with such reports.

Mooted Iran-Azerbaijan agreements

During his meeting with Abiyev, Shamkhani will discuss a range of
“significant” military and political topics, Ayna has found out
from military sources. Some sources said that several agreements
may be signed during the meeting. Abiyev recently expressed his
concern that military cooperation between Iran and Azerbaijan is not
at the necessary level. During a meeting with the outgoing Iranian
ambassador to Azerbaijan, Ahad Qaza’i, Abiyev said he was dissatisfied
with the level of bilateral military cooperation. Abiyev said then
that Azerbaijan expects more from Iran in the resolution of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

When we consider all this, it becomes clear that Shamkhani’s visit
is not a “factfinding” one. Experts reckon that during the visit,
Iran will try to reach an agreement with the Azerbaijani leadership on
some issues. Certainly, they will clear up some issues regarding the
possibility of Azerbaijan’s participation in a US plan to attack Iran.

What can be promised to Baku in exchange for a neutral stance? Experts
believe that Tehran is ready to offer Azerbaijan cheap credits,
financial assistance grants and so on.

The most important aspect concerns the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. Iran will announce at international organizations that
it completely supports the Baku government’s position on settling
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, and will restrict its economic,
military and political cooperation with Armenia. In return for these
“services”, Azerbaijan will take a neutral stance on the US plan to
attack Iran. However, will the West, especially the USA, accept such
an accord? The probable course of events is likely to become clear
in the coming months.

In addition to this, Shamkhani’s visit may serve to reinforce
Iran-Azerbaijan military cooperation. Verdiyev shares this view and
does not rule out that Abiyev may visit Iran in the future.

Expert says no benefits for Azerbaijan

“Shamkhani’s visit to Baku was unexpected. By sending its officials
one by one to Azerbaijan, Tehran is presenting Baku with a fait
accompli in the run-up to a US military attack against Iran,” Lt-Col
(retd) Uzeyir Cafarov has told Ayna in an interview. In his opinion,
Baku will come to feel the pain of such relations.

“Granted, Iran is our neighbour. But it is Armenia’s strategic
ally. Let me remind you that during the first Armenian-Azerbaijani
war Armenian servicemen adjusted their artillery from Iran,” Cafarov
said. In Cafarov’s view, the USA is bound to respond to Tehran’s
policy of getting closer with Baku. “The consequences will surface
later. Azerbaijan may be cornered in the international arena,” he said.

Since the South Caucasus is an extremely sensitive region, Azerbaijan’s
foreign policy must be balanced. “One could better see a balanced
policy under [the late president] Heydar Aliyev. However, now this
policy has been ruined,” Cafarov said. No military or political
agreement with Iran will benefit Azerbaijan, he said.

[Passage omitted: Iran’s reaction to statements by American officials]