AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Dec 29 2004
Thaw in Baku-Tehran relations
The visit by Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani to Baku was
considered one of the most important events of last week not only for
Azerbaijani public but also for western countries and Russia, which
maintain close relations with Azerbaijan. After the visit by the
Iranian President Khatami to Azerbaijan
last summer and the appointment of an energetic and active diplomat
Afshar Suleymani as Iran’s ambassador, who is approved of by Baku,
the relations between the two neighboring countries started to thaw.
On the eve of President Ilham Aliyev’s upcoming reciprocal visit to
Iran, visits by Iranian officials to Baku have become frequent.
A recent visit by Iranian deputy foreign minister was followed by
that of the country’s defense minister Shamkhani. This was the first
visit by an Iranian defense minister to Azerbaijan.
The Iranian Minister was received not only by his Azerbaijani
counterpart but also by President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov. As expected, no documents were signed upon
conclusion of the talks.
Iran ready to forge any ties
In a meeting with Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev, which
was held in a friendly atmosphere, the parties confined themselves to
conventional statements. Shamkhani said that Iran has always
supported and will continue to back Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity.
“Azerbaijan’s security is our security. Our defense capability means
your defense capability. We are ready to establish any ties with
Azerbaijan and there are no forces opposed to this.”
Minister Abiyev in turn, said that Iran, which considers Azerbaijan a
brotherly country, should assist in a fair settlement of the Upper
Garabagh conflict. Abiyev pointed out that “Azerbaijan will not yield
a patch of its land to the aggressor”.
The parties also exchanged views on developing Azeri-Iranian
relations in the area of defense and agreed upon mutual visits by the
two countries’ delegations to continue relevant consultations.
Independent analysts have issued conflicting views on Shamkhani’s
statement. Some say that Iran has started getting closer to
Azerbaijan.
Similar statements were made at Shamkhani’s meetings with the
Azerbaijani President and Foreign Minister.
President Aliyev, in the meeting with the Iranian minister, said that
Iran’s high-ranking officials have frequently visited Azerbaijan over
the last few months, which illustrates the expanding relations. The
successfully developing Azerbaijani-Iranian ties also promote
strengthening peace and stability in the region, the President added.
History
Azerbaijani people have always been interested in developing
relations with Iran. This is, first of all, explained by the fact
that there are over 30 million indigenous Azerbaijani Turks, who have
lived in the northern part of Iran for thousands of years.
In early 1990s, during the national liberation movement in
Azerbaijan, which was then a part of the Soviet Union, residents of
borderline regions, destroying the barbed wires and other borderline
structures, opened arms to their brethren who had a similar language
and religion, hopeful that the latter will assist them in repelling
the Russo-Armenian onslaught.
In those years, Iran tried to assume the role of a mediator in the
resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Twice, on the
initiative of t e then President of Iran – in February in March of
1992, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia were invited to Tehran
to hold peace talks in order to achieve a ceasefire and
reconciliation. However, as soon as the negotiations started, the
Russo-Armenian troops entered Khojaly and neighboring villages and
perpetrated the well-known massacre.
Similar developments took place in May, as the main town in Garabagh,
Shusha, was invaded.
Azerbaijanis realized then that superpowers and certain forces in
Armenia let Iran know that it should abandon its mission of
intermediary. However, the ensuing development of economic relations
between Iran and Armenia, supplies of Iranian energy resources and
vital goods to Armenia was complicating the ties between Iran and
Azerbaijan.
Due to its ties with Iran, Armenia was not considerably affected by
the ‘economic blockade on part of Azerbaijan and Turkey’,
persistently promulgated by this country in the international arena.
Considering the good relations between Iran and Russia, Iran can be
considered a ‘key factor’ for Armenia. This brings us to the
question: why has Iran unexpectedly decided to ‘break the ice’ in its
relationship with Azerbaijan?
Visit goal
Some experts say that Iranian officials tend to favor the neighboring
country’s aspiration to cooperate but also its global goals. More
precisely, Iran is trying to minimize the presence of the United
States in the region. This country’s key goal is to prevent
Azerbaijan’s becoming a forepost for US troops and members of the
anti-terror coalition in their struggle against Iran.
Competent analysts say that the issue of the US military presence in
Azerbaijan will be finally resolved as early as in 2005. This may
happen under the pretext of safeguarding the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline, the main export pipeline to take Azerbaijan’s oil to world
markets.
A reliable military source said that the key objective of Shamkhani’s
visit to Baku was to “eliminate the latent military stand-off between
the two countries” and learn Azerbaijan’s future policy with regard
to Iran. Many still remember the violation of Azerbaijan’s maritime
border and air space by Iranian aircraft and vessels.
Some pundits believe that in a move to prevent the possibility of
stationing NATO bases in Azerbaijan, Shamkhani presumably offered to
the Azerbaijani government a full support in resolving the Upper
Garabagh problem and weakening of its ties with Armenia. It appears
that otherwise the Azerbaijani government would simply have no reason
to negotiate with Iran.
The mentioned issues are to be clarified during the upcoming visits
by the Azerbaijani President and Defense Minister to Iran.
During Minister Abiyev’s visit, the parties may sign an agreement on
military and technical collaboration.
Prospects
Some analysts say that Azerbaijan, as an independent country, is
pursuing a balanced policy, which meets the country’s national
interests.
Most of the experts we have approached, however, say they see no
prospects for Iran-Azerbaijan military ties, and warn that by getting
closer to Iran, Azerbaijan is backing away from its positions on its
road of integration with Europe and may even enter the ‘list of the
United States’ opponents. Active visits by Iran’s representatives to
Azerbaijan are believed to have started after the NATO exercises were
cancelled in Baku this September. They warn that a change in
Azerbaijan’s strategic priorities may turn out costly for the
country.