The Japan Times, Japan
Dec 29 2004

GANTLET OF REFERENDUMS AWAIT

Turkey’s long march to an EU wedding

By ANDRE FONTAINE

PARIS — Although a wedding date has yet to be set between the
European Union and Turkey, the two parties managed to conclude what
several participants at the Dec. 17 European summit have called a
formal “engagement.”

Such an outcome had long looked doubtful because a majority of the
public in EU countries that have a large number of Turkish workers
oppose Turkish membership in the EU.

In Germany, 55 percent are opposed; in Austria, 62 percent; and in
France, 67 percent. Such opposition has increased following the
murder of a popular filmmaker by a Muslim immigrant in the
Netherlands. In addition, the EU now has 25 members, making it all
the more difficult to attain the unanimous approval required for
Turkey to join the union.

Talks on the conditions of Ankara’s entry into the EU will begin Oct.
3, 2005. It will be a long process due to the need to harmonize
Turkish law with no less than 80,000 pages of European rules, and to
find the immense funds needed to provide Turkey the economic and
social help to which it will be entitled.

This means that Turkey’s entry into the union cannot possibly take
place before 2014. Furthermore, the eventual treaty of admission will
have to be submitted to a referendum in every member country if the
draft European Constitution — the subject of a special convention
chaired by former French President Giscard d’Estaing and unanimously
approved June 18 — is ratified, as the document makes such a step
compulsory for any enlargement of the EU.

Even if the draft constitution is not adopted, several countries will
still organize their own referendums. As French President Jacques
Chirac has made a strong commitment to such a move, count France
among these countries.

At 72, Chirac is unlikely to still be in charge when such a
referendum takes place. While initiating a referendum designed to
take place so long from now may sound strange, it was apparently the
only way he found to avoid a crisis not only with his European
colleagues but within his own party, the Union for a Popular
Movement.

UMP’s new chairman, Nicolas Sarkozy, and two former prime ministers,
Edouard Balladur and Alain Juppe, openly express their hostility to
Turkey’s entry, thus reflecting the mood of a majority of their
countrymen. D’Estaing has equally declared himself against it, as
have the Christian Democrat members of the Union for French Democracy
party.

All of these politicians prefer the formula of a “privileged
partnership” advocated by the German rightist opposition but
categorically opposed by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
and an overwhelming majority of the Turkish public.

It’s easy to understand Erdogan’s reasons. For decades Turkey has
belonged to the Council of Europe, and it has been an associate
member of the EU since 1963. At that time, French President Charles
de Gaulle didn’t hesitate to hail Turkey’s “European vocation.”
Turkey has also joined the Customs Union created in 1995, and at the
1999 European summit its “partnership” was recognized.

In any case, another European referendum will take place in France
next year, probably in May, on the draft constitution. As France’s
Socialist Party has decided by a large majority to back this
agreement, the “yes” side is likely to win by a small margin.
Nevertheless, one cannot rule out a negative vote, which could in
turn affect the outcome of the talks on Turkey’s admission.

Referendums are not the only obstacles that could deal Ankara’s
application a fatal blow. In addition, the Dec. 17 agreement mentions
a formal condition: Turkey must make a decisive improvement in its
observance of human rights.

Nobody denies that Turkey has made significant progress in this area
since Erdogan took power following the 2002 general election. His
party, the AKP (Justice and Development Party), is supposed to be
both conservative and Islamic, but it resembles a Muslim version of
the Christian-Democrat parties of Western Europe, maintaining a
commitment to upholding human rights.

Turkey has abolished the death penalty — a prerequisite to enter the
EU — as well as a law that demanded the jailing of adulterous wives.
In addition, a law opening university doors to pupils of religious
schools has been “suspended” and the use of torture by police has
seriously diminished.

Much remains to be done as many abuses still take place in various
fields, particularly regarding women and the country’s Kurdish
minority. The EU Council has decided that if serious human rights
violations take place in Turkey, a vote by a third of its members
will be enough to halt the admission talks.

Two other “conditions” don’t figure in the Dec. 17 agreement but will
play a serious role in the future:

The first concerns the deaths of up to 2 million Armenians during
World War I at the hands of Turks, responsibility for which Ankara
has never accepted. The proud Turks despise the idea of having to own
up to such an act, but why should they not do so when Germany has
repeatedly apologized for its slaughter of millions of Jews in World
War II.

Chirac has been particularly insistent on the Armenian issue, as has
the European Parliament in Strasbourg. While approving in principle
Turkey’s entry into the union, the Parliament has insisted that
Ankara should clearly acknowledge the Armenian genocide.

The second issue concerns Cyprus, a British colony from 1878 to 1960.
The population of this beautiful island in the eastern Mediterranean
is roughly 80 percent Greek and 20 percent Turkish. An attempt by
Greek rightists to unite the country with Greece led the Turkish Army
to intervene in 1974 and occupy one-third of the territory.

Later Ankara created the Cyprus Turkish Republic, which no country
but Turkey has recognized. Although many mediation efforts have taken
place, the division issue remains unresolved.

Now that the Greek government of the island is member of the EU,
everyone thinks that Turkey will finally accept a reunification of
Cyprus in the framework of a confederation.

Important steps have been made, including the opening of the border,
allowing some 200,000 Greek Cypriots who had to flee their homes in
1974 to freely visit their former residences. And Ankara has signed
the Greek Cyprus regime. It’s difficult to imagine the Turks not
going further. But they clearly hate the idea, so it will take time.

Andre Fontaine is former editor in chief of Le Monde.