The Daily Star, Bangladesh
Jan 2 2005

Perspectives
Turkey’s rocky road to EU
M Abdul Hafiz

The Ottomans once entered Europe as conquerors causing a measure of
trepidation among the Europeans who cowered at the Ottomans’
triumphant advance into their continent, traditionally the abode of
Christendom. They could be repulsed from the gate of Vienna only in
1683. But for several centuries the ottomans were the virtual master
of Europe. It is an irony that their descendants today have been
knocking on EU’s door for last forty years to get an entry into
European Union — a regional forum for mutual benefit at the best.
The EU’s public and politicians both have made its membership
discriminatory and are uneasy about Turkey’s large population,
relative poverty and above all Islam, the religion of 70 million
Turks, even though the country has a secular constitution.

When compared with some of the new entrants of EU from former
communist block Turkey is much more deserving case in terms of its
socio-economic advancement. Not only the country has one of the
fastest growing economies of Europe its geographical location is a
strategic asset for Europe. Turkey’s membership of the EU will boost
EU’s global standing, infuse much needed dynamism into EU’ flagging
economy and help Europeans build bridge with the Islamic world as
well as 15 million Muslims living in Europe itself. Also by admitting
a country which has long been member of NATO military alliance but
kept out of EU for a host of political, social and religious reason
— the decision to open entry talks with Ankara — will set the EU on
course for even more significant transformation.

Yet the pronouncement of EU leaders meeting on December 16-17 fell
far short of expectation that they would signal a go-ahead for
membership talk. Instead they offered for talk with strict new
conditions which may indeed be difficult to meet. They want the Prime
Minister Recep Teyyip Erdogan to recognise Greek Cyprus, accept all
time restriction on labour migration to the EU and agree that entry
talks could be put on backburner any time if there is Turkish
slippage on political reforms.

The conditions are indeed disincentive considering that Turkey has
been waiting for the entry into Europe since 1963 when it was given
the associate membership of the European common market. In contrast
last May Slovakia and Estonia joined EU within only four years and
Poland within six years of the negotiation. Two Balkan countries,
Bulgaria and Romania are in the line and would most probably become
member by 2007. For Turkey the observers predict that the entry
negotiations may drag on till 2015. For Turks it is an insult upon
injury.

Although all leading European powers have supported Turkey’s
membership bid but those supports do not seem to be substantiated by
any active steps. Deep down there is a lot of reservations about the
very idea of a large Muslim country becoming the member of virtually
a Christian club. Turkey, it is feared, would overtake Germany, the
EU’ most populous country — a prospect which few Europeans entertain
charitably.

The EU and Turkey took a fateful decision weeks before on the
settlement over Cyprus — much as it is to be desired. But it could
not conceal the collisions between different values and between the
aims of the decision makers and the instinct of their people that lie
ahead. Nothing illustrated so well the disjunction between carefully
formulated common aspiration and the reality of divergent values. The
entry negotiation, if any, is likely to be tough as can be gauged
from the warnings of Romano

Pradi, the chairman of European Commission. He warned that the talks
would not be open-ended and the EU could call off the process if
Ankara did not continue to move forward on reforms. It is in spite of
Ankara staying firm in its drive to ease European concerns. Erdogan
and his ministers have in the mean time spent time sweet-talking EU
leaders and European big business while Turkish artists showcased the
country’s modern and traditional culture. Although Erdogan’s justice
party is also an Islamic party, but very significantly the prime
minister has shed the ex-prime minister Erbakan’s extremist pollicies
and took up a moderate policy which alone could lead to the
conditional ‘yes’ by the EU in October last.

Yet unfortunately many in the EU have, off late, put emotion and
prejudice ahead of rational debate on the pros and cons of Turkey’s
membership. Although Gerhard Schroeder is a supporter of Turkey’s
entry but the biggest opposition to Turkish membership is now found
in Germany where already more than 3m Turks live. The Germans fear
that their country will be

swamped by Turks once they are granted membership of EU which does
not impose any restriction on transborder movement of population.
French President Chirac, once willing to admit Turkey into EU is also
lukewarm now and his country demands that Turkey can at best be given
a privileged relationship with EU, but not membership.

EU fretting over relation with Turkey is not new. The current EU
discussions on the issue has become even more difficult because of
many Europeans’ post 9/11 weariness of Islam and Muslims. As a result
some of the arguments put forward by Turko-sceptics in Europe
illustrate an unabashed anti-Islam bias. At

times their demands almost border on claiming Turks to purge
themselves of past sins — their conduct of the imperial days with
regards to the Slavs or Armenians.

A former EU high-up Frit Bolkestin finds in Turkish entry into EU a
denial of its repulsion from the gate of Vienna. The French Prime
Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin warns against allowing the ‘river of
Islam’ to mingle with European secularism. Former French president
Valery Giscard d’Estaing cautioned that Turkey inside Europe will
mean the end of the bloc’s dream of ever closer union. The attitude
on both sides has recently hardened when Mr Ergodan, the Turkish
prime minister categorically said that Turkey has no intention of
trading its social and cultural values for EU membership.

There are however silver linings for Turkey because it can count on a
number of strong friends and allies, including Britain’s Tony Blair
and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as well as the leaders of
Spain and Italy. The European Commission itself is on Turkey’s side,
announcing in October last that Ankara had met all the key
pro-democracy and human rights standard to join the EU. It will be
interesting to see whether basically an Asian country with barely 3
percent of its territory lying in Europe will at long last be the
proud member of EU for which it had to wait for 41 years and pass the
litmus test. Even if it does the road will remain rocky till the
last.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.