EurasiaNet Organization
Jan 7 2005

TURKISH DRIVE TOWARDS EU INCREASES POSSIBILITIES FOR CHANGE IN THE
CAUCASUS
Jon Gorvett 1/06/05

The European Union’s decision to pursue membership talks with Turkey
could have far-reaching political and economic ramifications for the
Caucasus. The accession process can stimulate democratization in the
region, experts say.

The EU decided December 17 to open what promises to be a lengthy
accession process with Turkey. Some political observers in Turkey say
the decision immediately increased pressure on Ankara to normalize
relations with neighboring Armenia. In recent months, Ankara and
Yerevan have probed a rapprochement, but they have yet to make
substantive progress in overcoming long-standing mutual hostility.
[For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“If Turkey starts accession talks,” adds Professor Gareth Winrow of
Istanbul’s Bilgi University, “it will have to normalize relations
with all its neighbors as a condition of future EU membership. Number
one, this means opening all its borders.”

Turkey’s has kept its frontier with Armenia closed since 1993. The
closure is connected with a Turkish embargo designed to encourage
Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijani territory captured during the
Nagorno-Karabkah conflict. [For additional information see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish political leaders in mid-2004
mulled re-opening the border, but the idea met fierce resistance,
both in Turkey and in Azerbaijan, and officials backed off the idea.
[For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkish observers say the government will have a difficult time
finessing the border issue, adding that despite the EU pressure, the
status quo may not change in the near future. “If Turkey just opened
the border because of EU pressure, there might easily be a backlash,”
warned Mustafa Sahin of the Ankara-based Eurasian think tank, AVSAM.
“Azerbaijan is a very popular cause in Turkey. Also, Armenia still
has territorial claims on Turkey that would have to be solved.”

Turkish territorial concerns stem from Armenia’s refusal to recognize
the Kars Treaty of 1921, which set the frontiers between the two
states. Armenia claims there is no need for such recognition, as
acceptance of the existing borders was implicit when both countries
joined the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Turkey, however, continues to seek a specific guarantee of Armenian
recognition for the existing border.

Armenian President Robert Kocharian in late 2004 appealed to the EU
to place the opening of the frontier among the pre-conditions for
Turkey’s EU membership. “It is unacceptable for a country that is to
have membership talks with the EU to keep its border closed with
another country that is already in the neighborhood policy of
Europe,” Kocharian said.

The Armenian leader was referring to the EU Neighborhood Policy
(EUNP), which was formulated to provide a framework for states
bordering on the EU, such as Moldova and Ukraine. “The EUNP is
designed to give support and dialogue to those countries that have no
prospect of joining for now,” adds Winrow. “At first, Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan were excluded from the EUNP, but after the
Rose Revolution in Georgia, the EU changed its mind and allowed them
in.” [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

If Turkey and Armenia can eventually settle their differences, some
observers believe pressure could increase on the Baku and Yerevan to
reach a Karabakh settlement. Others, however, are guarded about the
possibilities. “Accession talks won’t have any direct effect on the
Armenian issue,” suggested Ferai Tinc, a political analyst for the
Hurriyet daily. “We’ve seen many times before these moves to sort out
the border.”

Nevertheless, Tinc and others say Turkey’s move towards EU membership
cannot but have a positive impact on the Caucasus. “It will send a
message to the region that will be good for the democratization
process,” says Tinc. “Turkey’s relations with the Caucasian states
will be within a different framework – not as a big brother, but as a
member of a community.”

Sahin, the AVSAM think-tank expert, said that even though Armenia
views Turkey with suspicion, a significant number of Armenians want
to see Ankara’s accession effort succeed. “Armenia is a little split
on the issue,” Sahin said. “But even there, many argue that Turkey’s
accession process will give Armenia greater leverage for change.”

Meanwhile, others see Turkey’s European path as helping to widen EU
influence with another regional big power, Russia. “Turkey can play a
very important role here,” says Winrow. “As can an organization such
as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Turkey can show its
strategic importance to Europe and get better and closer regional
relations through this.”

Editor’s Note: Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in
Istanbul.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress