Expert rules out “velvet revolution” in Azerbaijan

MPA news agency, Baku
10 Jan 05

BAKU

“Even if there is an increased level of political activity in
Azerbaijan in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, I do not
believe that these processes will take a revolutionary nature and lead
to a change of power,” the director of the Institute for Political
Innovations and Technologies, Mubariz Ahmadoglu, said, while
commenting on the possible “import” of the “velvet revolutions” into
Azerbaijan from Georgia and Ukraine.

All the post-Soviet countries have passed the period of velvet
revolutions in this or other way, he said. It occurred in Azerbaijan
on 15-16 October 2003 [post-election riots in Baku]. Only after that,
did a similar situation unfold in Georgia and Ukraine. The difference
is that the opposition in Azerbaijan proved to be weak and incapable
despite financial support from outside.

Taking into consideration the failure of the revolutionary idea in
Azerbaijan, the political analyst does not see any revolutionary
prospects for Azerbaijan, especially before the parliamentary
elections.

Touching upon the prospects, Ahmadoglu said that a “velvet” coup is
expected in Armenia soon, where the process of preparing and
structuring a revolutionary situation has started. Ex-President Levon
Ter-Petrosyan and the former foreign minister, now US citizen Raf
Ovanesyan, have set up a single bloc. Four leading parties of the
Justice bloc are also expected to join this bloc. Since Armenia is
considered to be a “mini-Russia” of the CIS, these principles may be
applied in Russia in the future if the velvet revolution is successful
in Yerevan. Russia is the ultimate goal of the velvet revolutions in
the post-Soviet area, which will then, under the US plan, move to the
Middle East, the expert said.