Azeri experts wary about Armenia’s consent to stage-by-stage Karabakh plan

Ekho, Baku
11 Jan 05

Excerpt from R. Orucov’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ekho on 11
January headlined “Has the process started?”

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan left for Prague on 10
January. The department of information and press of the Armenian
Foreign Ministry reports that Oskanyan is expected to meet Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov on 11 January to hold talks on the
settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The negotiations will be
held in the presence of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen.

The Russian co-chairman of the Minsk Group, Yuriy Merzlyakov, has said
recently that the Armenians have given their consent to the
stage-by-stage settlement of the Karabakh conflict. He said “if the
forthcoming meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers
produces tangible results, the dialogue may be continued in the near
future”.

Meanwhile, an Azerbaijani political analyst, Zardust Alizada, thinks
“the Armenians are unlikely to agree to the stage-by-stage settlement,
while the package alternative suggested by the Armenian side is
unacceptable. The stage-by-stage settlement does not mean a solution
either, because each stage involves its own obstacles.”

[Passage omitted: reported statement by Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev]

“It is naive to present Armenia’s willingness to discuss the
stage-by-stage plan as a major achievement of the Azerbaijani
diplomacy. In principle, I am opposed to bringing the issue down to
which settlement option – package or stage-by-stage – the sides have
chosen for negotiations. It is the essence of the issue that matters.
Even under the stage-by-stage plan it is possible to accept a
suggestion that can lead to the complete loss of Karabakh,” says the
head of the Centre of peace and conflict settlement, Elxan Mehdiyev.

He believes the Armenians wanted to solve the status issue for
Nagornyy Karabakh, which is why they insisted that all the issues be
covered by one and the same agreement. “But this, of course, is
impossible, at least because of the enmity between the sides,” he
said.

Mehdiyev also recalled Oskanyan’s latest statement about the
continuation of “the Prague process”.

“According to the minister, even though Armenia has agreed to the
stage-by-stage plan, all the aspects of the negotiations that meet the
Armenian interests will be explored. So, in their view, the sides can
agree all the issues of interest and then start implementing them on a
stage-by-stage basis. The Armenians are not and have never been
against this. They simply don’t want to start discussing other issues,
leaving the issue of status for Nagornyy Karabakh for the very last
stage of the settlement plan. If Azerbaijan agrees to provide Nagornyy
Karabakh and other occupied territories with a status, the Armenians
will go for a stage-by-stage solution. They won’t accept anything
else,” Mehdiyev said.

[Passage omitted: reported comments by another Azerbaijani expert]