EurasiaNet Organization
Jan 13 2005

TURKEY, RUSSIA CELEBRATE TRADE TIES WHILE PROBING AN EXPANSION OF
GEOPOLITICAL CONTACTS
Mevlut Katik 1/12/05

Turkey and Russia celebrated rapidly expanding bilateral trade during
a visit by a massive Turkish trade delegation January 10-12 to
Moscow. The visit also generated several significant political
developments, including an announcement that Turkey would explore
cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and a Russian
commitment to consider the lifting of an embargo against Turkish
Cypriots.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan led the Turkish
delegation, comprising 52 MPs and 600 business executives. The size
of contingent underscored the fact that Russia has emerged as
Turkey’s second largest trade partner after Germany, in part because
of Turkish imports of Russian natural gas via the Blue Stream
pipeline. Bilateral trade volume in 2004 was estimated at $10
billion. The figure could skyrocket to $25 billion by 2007, Erdogan
said. The centerpiece of the visit was the opening of a Turkish Trade
Center in central Moscow.

Erdogan’s press office hyped the visit as “probably the busiest …
made by one our [Turkey’s] leaders.” The January 12 statement went on
to say that Turkey’s “economic ties with Russia are ripe for growth,”
adding that Ankara expected “an influx of Russian capital.” Russian
President Vladimir Putin reciprocated the enthusiasm expressed by
Turkish leaders. Putin met with Erdogan at least four times during
the three-day visit, including a private dinner at the presidential
residence outside Moscow.

Only sketchy details have emerged on trade talks conducted during the
visit. Turkish officials let it be known in advance that they would
seek a discount on the price of Russian natural gas supplies. Russia
currently provides about two-thirds of Turkey’s natural gas needs.
According to the Interfax news agency, Russia agreed to expand gas
exports to Turkey, but provided no details. There was likewise no
information on the price that Turkey would pay.

Russia, at the same time, expressed interest in other Turkish energy
spheres, especially electricity. “The Russians are interested in
power stations that work with natural gas, coal and hydropower,” said
Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Guler. The minister added that Russian
companies were interested in participating in energy-related
privatization tenders, and were ready to explore the feasibility of
laying down cables on the Black Sea floor to export electricity.

In addition to energy, Turkish and Russian officials confirmed that
talked about developing military-technological ties. They did not go
into specifics, and no agreements were announced.

Beyond the trade talks, several statements by both Turkish and
Russian officials could have a profound impact on regional
geopolitics. While in Kazakhstan on a one-day visit January 12, Putin
welcomed Turkey’s interest in establishing trade relations with the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which included Russia,
China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Putin
described Turkey’s interest as “unexpected,” Interfax reported.

Meanwhile, Putin indicated that Russian policy may soon shift on the
Cyprus issue, which has served as an obstacle in Turkey’s path toward
European Union membership. The Russian president said he would start
advocating for the lifting of an international embargo on the
Turkish-controlled sector of the divided island. “We do not think
that the political isolation of Northern Cypriots is fair,” Putin
said.

Erdogan and Putin also reportedly probed for an understanding on
Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. The normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations would potentially hasten Turkey’s European Union accession
process. Russia, as Armenia’s strategic ally, could be in position to
facilitate a rapprochement. The normalization issue, in turn, is
connected to the long search for a lasting Karabakh settlement, as
Turkey has long supported Azerbaijan in the peace process.

Political observers suggested that existing geopolitical conditions
were exerting considerable force on Turkey and Russia to expand their
political and economic ties. For Turkey, Russia potentially could
help remove several obstacles still standing in Ankara’s European
Union membership drive, namely the Cyprus and Armenia questions. In
addition, in the wake of the diplomatic row between the United States
and Turkey over Iraq, the Turkish government apparently welcomes the
diversification of its foreign policy – mainly for economic purposes.
Even though, Ankara has worked hard to repair its relationship with
Washington, there appears to be some lingering concern over whether
the United States will address Turkish security concerns in Iraq.
[For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. During
a January 11 visit to Turkey, a top US military leader, Gen. John
Abizaid, offered assurances that Washington would address the issue
of Kurdish militant activity in northern Iraq, without offering a
specific action blueprint. [For additional information see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

For Russia, closer relations with Turkey could potentially help
Moscow slow the steady erosion of its influence in the Black Sea
Basin. Over the past year-plus, Russia has seen pro-Western
governments come to power in Georgia and Ukraine. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].

Many pundits gave Erdogan high marks for his recent performance. Over
the last month, Erdogan’s government has finessed the European Union
into agreeing on the accession issue, taken steps to restore the US
relationship, and now opened new channels of commercial and political
communication with Russia. “Turkey’s foreign relations have always
been very pragmatic and mostly rational, especially with its eastern
neighbour Russia,” said Firdevs Robinson, the editor of the British
Broadcasting Corp.’s Central Asia and Caucasus Service. “Erdogan is
continuing this tradition with an important additional element. He is
using Turkey’s economic potential as well as his personal charm. He
is seen as `a leader that keeps his word.'”

Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst.
He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist
group.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress