The Messenger

Friday, January 14, 2005, #007 (0781)

CIS Press Scanner

Prepared by Anna Arzanova

United States prepares revolutions in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Moldova

The Azeri newspaper Novoe Vremya writes that Namakom, a Russian
political analysis center created by former employees of the Russian
foreign intelligence service, believes that political revolutions will
continue to spread to other CIS countries. Namakom claims that the
United States is behind the recent revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine,
and believes that Azerbaijan will be the sight of the next U.S. project.

Namkom cites Washington’s dislike of communist leadership for its
interest in “the greater Black Sea region,” composed of Azerbaijan,
Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The paper writes that the
post-Soviet leaders are not convenient for the West at all. However,
analysts think that Washington will not rest on its achievements: Baku
and Yerevan irritate Washington at the moment and Ilham Aliev as well
as Robert Kocharian have been criticized by the West several times,
because neither one responds to the current U.S. requirements. That is
why they should be replaced, as the paper reports, “perhaps according
to the pre-term scenario.” The analysis continues that after the
revolution in Tbilisi and Kiev, Washington intends to activate
attempts to settle the Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and
Transdnestre issues. Simultaneously Washington is preparing for
parliamentary, and possibly presidential, elections in Azerbaijan and
Armenia. The paper forecasts that the next change of the power will
take place in Moldova. “The main role in conducting these revolutions
will be given to the United States,” the paper writes. Azeri
political analyst Gabil Guseinli also acknowledges the possibility of
the same revolution in Azerbaijan, though he thinks that lots of
things must be done before it will take place in the country.
Particularly, the creation of youth organizations, independent TV
channels, and the strengthening of the democratic election system need
to occur in the country by all means. He thinks Western support is
necessary for all of this. According to the paper, the United States
intends to pay serious attention to Azerbaijan after the second
inauguration of George Bush. There is also information that
Washington has started intensive consultations with representatives of
the Azeri opposition. The paper notes that the centennial of the
beginning of the first Russian revolution in 1905 approaches. It is
not enough to overthrow a ruler, the paper states; just as important
the U.S. must not allow the same authoritarian force to come to power
once again. “Will the West take care of this as well or not?” asks the
paper. Putin rejects “beer law” According to the Russian newspaper
Vedomosti, Russian President Vladimer Putin vetoed a law limiting
consumption of alcohol in public places. According to the
Vice-Speaker of the Duma Lubov Sliska, his veto letter concerning this
issue was received by the lower chamber of the parliament. She also
said that proceeding from the recommendations of the president, the
law needs revision, something she says is “quite fair.” Sliska also
stated that the president has remarks regarding the territory on which
the sale of beer will or will not be allowed. Moreover, she said that
there are many disputable issues regarding beverages prepared from
ethyl alcohol, a process that should also be prohibited. The law would
prohibit the sale of alcohol in educational and medical facilities,
forbid consumption of alcohol in public areas such as stadiums, public
transport, and parks, and forbid the sale of alcohol to minors.

Kyrgyz president condemns revolutions The Russian newspaper Vremia
Novostei reports that Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev is actively
preparing for the parliamentary elections in the republic that are
scheduled for February 27. He is very concerned about the fate of the
“Kyrgyz model of liberal democracy” which “we have been building for
13 years.” However, Akaev thinks that “none of the revolutions [in
the CIS] have led to positive results” and that revolutionary ideology
threatens the stability of a country. Speaking about the issue at a
central university, Akaev cited Yugoslavia as an example of the
destabilizing nature of revolutions. He also claimed that the Rose
Revolution in Georgia was financed by outside sources. As for
Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, he said that the country was split in two
and that “a civil war almost took place.” He also claimed that
opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko is wanted by international
organizations. Akaev thinks that it is impossible to call Georgia an
“independent state, because President Saakashvili and his ministers
receive salaries from the other side of the ocean, from the
multi-millionaire George Soros.” The paper notes that Akaev’s speech
was similar to one given by Russian President Vladmir Putin last year,
“although Putin did not question Georgia’s independence.”

The Messenger.