Caucaz.com, Georgia
Jan 18 2005
US-Armenia Relations : The Challenges of Cooperation [GEOPOLITICS]
By Annie JAFALIAN in Paris
On 18/01/2005
In a press release dated December 23, 2004, the news agency
ArmenPress announced that the construction work for the new US
embassy in Armenia will be completed by the end of March 2005. Built
on a nine-hectare site, this embassy will be the largest US
diplomatic mission in the world. For many observers, this project,
which was concluded in August 2001 and budgeted at$80 million, would
be a demonstration of Washington’s growing interest in Armenia.
Although Armenia is geographically isolated, economically weak and
sparsely populated, American leaders are considering it as an
important country for the United States. Since 1992, Washington has
been pursuing two strategic objectives in its relations with Armenia.
The first one has been to promote the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: the US administration is acting as a
mediator in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. The United States
is notably interested in strengthening security around the
neighboring oil pipeline stretching from Azerbaijan to Turkey. Its
second objective has consisted in tying Armenia to the Euro-Atlantic
structures, and in encouraging its rapprochement with Turkey. One of
the major stakes of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement has been the
opening of the economic borders between the two countries. Indeed,
Washington wants to promote the development of a regional East-West
axis so as to diversify those countries’ relations with other states
than Russia and to limit Iran’s role in the region.
Given the US interest, Armenia has, under the leadership Foreign
Affairs’ Minister, Vartan Oskanian, adopted a foreign policy based on
the concept of « complementarity ». As a matter of fact, the country
has developed its links with the regional powers along a North-South
axis. As a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization,
Armenia has perceived Russia as its major strategic partner, the
guarantor of its security. As for Iran, it is providing Armenia –
with its only connection with the rest of the world outside Georgia.
But Yerevan has also strengthened its relations with Washington.
Since 1992, the Armenian government has received $1.4 billion from
the US government. More recently, military cooperation between
Armenia and the United States has increased, notably for the fight
against terrorism. In other respects, Armenia has joined NATO’s
Partnership for Peace. However, contrary to its Georgian and
Azerbaijani neighbors, it has officially declared that it was not
willing to integrate the Atlantic alliance. Besides, Yerevan has
taken a different stance to Washington’s regarding the Iraq crisis.
Indeed, its position was closer to Moscow’s oneand partly motivated
by security concerns for the Armenian community in Iraq.
The Need for A New Balance
During the year 2004, it seems that Armenia, which has developed
asymmetric cooperation with the US, Russia and Iran, has been under
indirect pressure from Washington. In February 2004, the Bush
Administration submitted to the Congress a budget request for
-foreign assistance programs that would have broken the military
parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan.For the fiscal year 2005, it
requested to allocate $ 8.7 million military aid to Azerbaijan, and
$2.7 million to Armenia. The US Administration has emphasized that it
was determined to prioritize cooperation with Baku in order to fight
against terrorism, promote peacekeeping operations and secure oil
flows. In April 2004, it also named ambassador Steven Mann to be the
special negotiator for Nagorno-Karabakh and Eurasian conflicts. As
such, it showed its intention of reactivating the mediation process,
paralyzed by the inertia of both sides.
Consequently, Armenia has strived to set new strategic balances in
its foreign relations. At several occasions in the year 2004, it has
demonstrated its commitment to taking part, like Georgia and
Azerbaijan, in the operations supported by NATO. In February 2004, a
platoon of 34 Armenian soldiers was deployed in Kosovo and joined the
multinational brigade East led by American general Tod Carmony.
Moreover, in September, President Kocharian officially offered to
send 46 Armenian medical doctors, drivers and engineers to Iraq, in
the framework of the Polish-led Center-South multinational division.
According to the Armenian Defense Minister , Serge Sargsian, this
decision, which was highly debated throughout the nation, was aimed
at breaking Armenia’s regional isolation. Probably because of these
measures and the reactions of the Armenian diaspora living in
Washington, the American Congress eventually passed a budget that
restored military parity between Yerevan and Baku.In FY 2005, it will
allocate an equal $5 million foreign military aid to Armenia and
Azerbaijan.
Coordinating the different partnerships
Contrary to the strategic objectives prioritized by the United
States, Armenia has also strengthened its partnership with Iran,
especially in the field of energy. According to the US Department of
State, Armenia was to satisfy its energy demand by opting for the
development of domestic sources such as the hydroelectric power or
the wind power. In May 2004, Yerevan preferred to finalize its
agreement with Tehran for the supply of Iranian gas to Armenia for a
period of 20 years. Toward that end, the Armenian government
officially started in November 2004 to build a gas pipeline that will
connect the two countries. This event was celebrated as an historical
day for the republic as it gives Armenia the tangible prospect of a
strengthened energy security . Owing to this agreement, Yerevan will
become able to import gas from another country than Russia. Thhis
deal will also alleviate the effects of the Nagorno-Karabkh war, and
particularly the economic blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In parallel to those decisions, the Russian-Armenian partnership,
contested in the economic sphere, was not criticized in the military
field. A part of the Armenian political elite and media, notably from
the opposition, deplored that the investments made by Russian
companies inside the republic were not high enough to bring about
economic development. Besides, the relations between Russia and
Armenia got deteriorated after the Beslan attack. When Vladimir Putin
decided in September 2004 to close the border between North Ossetia
and Georgia, he shut down the only road connecting Russia and
Armenia. As a consequence, Armenia has been getting deprived of
supply essential to the workings of its economy. On the other hand,
the military cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow has not been
questioned. On the contrary, it was asserted by the joint military
exercises organized in Armenia in August 2004.
Without any agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia does
not have much room for developing its foreign policy. In order to
ensure its security, the country has to deal with the USA, as well as
with Russia and Iran. For the Armenian government, the diplomatic
challenge will consist in finding ways to preserve Armenia’s
interests in the framework of evolving relations between Washington
on the one hand and Moscow, Tehran and Ankara on the other hand. As
for the US government, it will probably give increasing importance to
the Armenian domestic and foreign policies in order to lift the last
obstacles that stand in the way of realizing its strategic objectives
in the Caucasus.
Annie JAFALIAN is a Research Fellow at the Foundation for strategic
research (FRS, Paris).