Tajik Avesta commentary praises Tajik-Russian accords, lists events of
the year
Avesta web site, Dushanbe
10 Jan 05
Text of report By Zafar Abdullayev entitled “The leap year has got the
harvest”, posted on Tajik Avesta web site on 10 January; subheading
inserted editorially
According to ancient beliefs, a leap year contains many difficulties
and problems, and the outgoing year 2004 was no exception. At the same
time, despite it not being “propitious” these 12 months were
relatively productive for Tajikistan, at least in terms of foreign
policy.
The country’s main achievements in the past year were a Tajik-Russian
comprehensive agreement on the basis of which Russia wrote off
Tajikistan’s 300m-dollar debt, and an agreement to transfer control of
the Tajik-Afghan border to the Tajik military.
Moreover, the UES [Unified Energy System] of Russia and Rusal
expressed the willingness to invest up to 2bn dollars in our national
economy. In exchange, Russia received the Norak space complex and
permission to set up a military base in Tajikistan.
At the beginning of June, after a meeting of the two countries’
presidents in Sochi, it seemed that the Tajik side had lost out. But
after the autumn summit, it became obvious that Tajikistan benefited
virtually from everything, even from its concessions. In addition to a
promise of investment incredible by Tajikistan’s standards and its
debt being written off, the country will also receive a military base
on its territory, which is a factor of military and political
stability. It is no secret that after the anti-terror operation in
Afghanistan, many countries of Central Asia wanted NATO military bases
on their territory as a source of stability and finance. But not
everyone was offered this role, and Russia served as an effective
substitute here.
On the other hand, in my opinion there is a clearly weak link in the
Tajik-Russian agreements. It is the Tajik-Afghan border. The
withdrawal of Russian border guards from there will hardly strengthen
its protection, but obviously Tajik citizens, especially those living
in the Pamirs, a region with chronic unemployment, will suffer direct
financial losses, not to mention security issues.
The authorities are counting on assistance from the West in the
formation of their own frontier troops, which is possible only with
full independent control of the border, but time will show the
effectiveness of this step.
Anti-corruption drive
Equally significant events of the year were the opening of criminal
cases against former field commanders who held high state and military
positions in the recent past. Yoqub Salimov’s case is different, but
accusations against the ex-commander of the presidential guard,
G. [Ghaffor] Mirzoyev, and the former head of Tojikgaz,
M. [Mahmadruzi] Iskandarov, are similar in some respect and have
common motives behind them. Having big powers with force (armed
supporters) and money, both leaders could not refrain from competing
with the head of state. And only if they tried to do that strictly in
the political arenaý [ellipsis as published]
The authorities have once again proven to them and all other such
“contenders” that the times of militants and threats of force have
passed. At the same time it can be forecast with a high probability
that ordinary people will pay fairly cold attention to this process as
they understand that none of the “commanders” ever thought about
them. They thought only about their detached houses and bank accounts.
However a lot of people ask questions about the honesty of the started
campaign to fight corruption and crime in the echelons of power. Will
thesecases be followed by others as the number of candidates “for
dispossession of kulaks” is more than a hundred? Will the fight
against corruption turn into a fight against dissidents? One would
like to believe that no, it will not. And this is only the start of “a
big purge”.
This is especially important from the point of view of “velvet”
revolutions in some CIS countries, specifically Georgia and Ukraine,
the last significant events of the year. The stunning success of
“rose” and “orange” transfer of power from the ruling forces to the
opposition makes the governments of our country’s neighbours think
about their fate, especially as Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have already
been named as potential candidates. To all appearances, this is
because of the upcoming presidential elections there. Presidential
elections will also be held in Tajikistan soon, that is next year,
which does not rule out the possibility of a repetition of that
scenario in our country. It is possible to prevent social and
political cataclysms only through creating an open democratic society,
holding free and transparent elections and purging the state apparatus
of bribe-takers and corrupt officials.